Vassal Kingdom of Hungary, or Szapolyai cuts a deal.

POD is sometime before the Battle of Mohacs in 1526. Szapolyai Janos, a magnate in Hungary with no great love of the Hapburgophile king Louis (Lajos) II, has a healthy son or two and his ambition is marginally greater. Before the battle of Mohacs (which he never made it to in OTL for some reason), he sees the writing on the wall and sends a messenger to Sultan Suleiman offering allegiance against the Hapsburg empire and tribute in return for not wrecking the place once Louis goes down. Seeing the long term benefit of an intact vassal and buffer, Suleiman gets his officers to back off after a Hungarian rout as bad as OTL and a bit of looting in the Baranya region.

By the expedient of seizing the more pro-Hapsburg estates, the money was passed to the Sultan shortly after Janos I was elected and crowned. He managed to get most of the nobles cooperating more or less, but what truly forged the matter was the full-scale invasion that Ferdinand of Austria launched to claim the throne of his late brother in law. Suleiman waited long enough to make the Hungarians worry about the destruction of their country by their coreligionists, then launched a counterattack that cut off the Hapsburg forces. In the 1529 battle of Pannohalma Ferdinand managed to escape back to Austria, but his army and the Hungarian exiles who sided with his were pretty much destroyed. The following treaty of Pest established Hungarian control north of the Danube/Sava line (outside of a few Ottoman garrisons in the west with a status not unfamiliar to the United States Army Europe) in return for some tribute.

The situation of the Hungarians improved, as it became both a refuge from the Counter-reformation in the southern H.R.E. and a discreet dumping ground for Anatolian Shiites. By 1568 the Edict of Torda established effective freedom of worship for Catholics, Protestants, Jews, and Orthodox Christians. Sunni Muslims were technically barred from settling in Hungary as they were in the Danubian principalities, but the Qadi of the western garrisons had his primary residence across the river from Buda and a printing press producing a considerable amount of literature in German, Hungarian, and Slovak. A surprising amount of information and a few settlers came via Hungary to the Ottoman Empire proper as well, it was a major center of translation from the European languages to Ottoman Turkish and Persian, while enough Calvinists filtered down to establish a small settlement in Palestine and a Church in Constantinople by 1650.

Long term ramifications?

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Giladis

Banned
You would get a war with Croatia, which would still decide to call Ferdinand to be their king rather than an ally of the Ottomans with whom they have been at war for almost a century.
 
You would get a war with Croatia, which would still decide to call Ferdinand to be their king rather than an ally of the Ottomans with whom they have been at war for almost a century.
Power projection of same, given the frontier involved (the border with Hapsburg lands being only in the northwest)? For that matter how much of the Croatian leadership was left after Mohacs?

They may hold out in the hills, but....

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Giladis

Banned
The part of the Mohacs disaster was in the fact Louis didn't want to wait for forces from Croatia. It is estimated between 40 and 60 thousand men.
 

Giladis

Banned
As far as Croatian official historiografy teaches us. Croatian forces were gathering as many men as they could and were two days from Mohacs when Louis ordered that battle is to be entered.
 

Philip

Donor
As far as Croatian official historiografy teaches us. Croatian forces were gathering as many men as they could and were two days from Mohacs when Louis ordered that battle is to be entered.

It seems safe to assume, then, that the Croatian nobility was not wiped out at Mohacs like the Hungarian nobility was. Correct?
 

Giladis

Banned
It seems safe to assume, then, that the Croatian nobility was not wiped out at Mohacs like the Hungarian nobility was. Correct?

In a way that is correct. I went to check and only current Croatian Ban Franjo Bathyany was present with his personal troops and two bihops with their retinues.

The problem with Croatian nobility at that time is, it was only barely rebuild from the Krbava disaster 27 years back when nearly 90% of adult male Croatian nobility died.

Should there be no battle of Mohacs, Croatia would be in a firm grip of Šubić and Frankopan families, which were almost family due to many intermariages. A direct opposition against an Ottoman supported king would give the remaining nobility as well as people a common rallying ground to centralise even more power into these families, may even restoring the status of Hereditry Bans to the Šubić family (it held it already during the colaps of the Arpad and the rise of the Anjevin dinasty) and that is just one step bellow making themselves kings.

It would have been a very different development for certain since a unified Croatia with a purpose would be an ever tougher nut to crack for the Ottomans, on the other hand that could warant a major Ottoman inasion in that direction rather than towards Viena in later years, may even allwoing Ottomans to invade and occupy Veneto.

What I am more interested is, though it is a bit off topic, how different would the battle of Mohacs have been if Louis II had waited for Croatian and Szapolyai army. We know that Hungarian army did rather well in the oppening phases of the battle but lacked numbers to take advantage of it.
 
As far as Croatian official historiografy teaches us. Croatian forces were gathering as many men as they could and were two days from Mohacs when Louis ordered that battle is to be entered.
So, in short, there is a very good chance of Croatia holding it's own as another buffer state in the NW Balkans... or as mentioned by Gladis being hit by a concerted attack which would break them totally.

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