Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
Which other division of Europe could have come about in the decade between V-E Day and the Austrian State Treaty? That is, which of the states that ended up in the Western, Eastern and neutral camps could have ended up in another? Here's a list of what's been on my mind:
France and Italy: Both had powerful communist parties which were kicked out of the ruling coalition in 1947. Had they stayed on (or gained enough votes to return), it's likely that it would have resulted in these countries adopting a neutral position in the Cold War. In France's case, this would have been helped by the PCF working with de Gaulle.
Spain and Portugal: The regimes in both countries could have been overthrown by democratic ones that would have moved towards neutrality (or possibly led to communism in Spain).
Germany and Austria: Germany could have been unified and neutral. Austria could have been divided between the 2 blocs.
Ireland: Could have joined the Western camp.
Iceland: Could have stayed with the Scandinavian tradition of neutrality.
Sweden and Finland: As I've said on another thread, I think the pro-Western neutrality of the former and the pro-Soviet one of the latter were contingent on each other. Finland becoming communist would have pushed Sweden into *NATO.
Greece: In spite of Stalin's promise to Churchill, it was a battlefield of the early Cold War, and one which the British alone could not win. A communist takeover is probably out of the picture because the Americans would be drawn in if it seemed likely, but I could see the country ending up divided along the frontlines like Korea.
Yugoslavia: Stalin tried to get the Communist Party of Yugoslavia to overthrow Tito themselves, and when that failed he started building up forces in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria for what would likely have been an invasion. That had to be put on hold for Korea, and the West's response to that, coupled with its increasing cooperation with Yugoslavia, must have convinced Stalin that trying to remove Tito by force was not a good idea. He also tried to have the man killed repeatedly. The point being, Tito was hanging by a thread.
Bulgaria: If the Yugoslav-Bulgarian negotiations for uniting the 2 countries had succeeded before the Tito-Stalin split... well, you see where this is going.
Albania: The West tried to make it the first target of rollback but failed due to Soviet moles in British intelligence. Remove those and the plan has a shot. Alternately, Tito may decide that he could do without a Soviet satellite behind him.
Poland and Hungary: Their communist governments could have pulled a Ceausescu to gain legitimacy, but the Hungarians may need Western protection to survive the attempt and the Poles definitely would. Alternately, Hungary could have been Finlandized earlier on.
Czechoslovakia: Was already a loyal Soviet ally before the 1948 coup. Stalin could have figured out that such a takeover would only hurt the cause of communism in Western countries. Finlandization may end up being called "Czechoslovakization," and don't it just roll off your tongue?
France and Italy: Both had powerful communist parties which were kicked out of the ruling coalition in 1947. Had they stayed on (or gained enough votes to return), it's likely that it would have resulted in these countries adopting a neutral position in the Cold War. In France's case, this would have been helped by the PCF working with de Gaulle.
Spain and Portugal: The regimes in both countries could have been overthrown by democratic ones that would have moved towards neutrality (or possibly led to communism in Spain).
Germany and Austria: Germany could have been unified and neutral. Austria could have been divided between the 2 blocs.
Ireland: Could have joined the Western camp.
Iceland: Could have stayed with the Scandinavian tradition of neutrality.
Sweden and Finland: As I've said on another thread, I think the pro-Western neutrality of the former and the pro-Soviet one of the latter were contingent on each other. Finland becoming communist would have pushed Sweden into *NATO.
Greece: In spite of Stalin's promise to Churchill, it was a battlefield of the early Cold War, and one which the British alone could not win. A communist takeover is probably out of the picture because the Americans would be drawn in if it seemed likely, but I could see the country ending up divided along the frontlines like Korea.
Yugoslavia: Stalin tried to get the Communist Party of Yugoslavia to overthrow Tito themselves, and when that failed he started building up forces in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria for what would likely have been an invasion. That had to be put on hold for Korea, and the West's response to that, coupled with its increasing cooperation with Yugoslavia, must have convinced Stalin that trying to remove Tito by force was not a good idea. He also tried to have the man killed repeatedly. The point being, Tito was hanging by a thread.
Bulgaria: If the Yugoslav-Bulgarian negotiations for uniting the 2 countries had succeeded before the Tito-Stalin split... well, you see where this is going.
Albania: The West tried to make it the first target of rollback but failed due to Soviet moles in British intelligence. Remove those and the plan has a shot. Alternately, Tito may decide that he could do without a Soviet satellite behind him.
Poland and Hungary: Their communist governments could have pulled a Ceausescu to gain legitimacy, but the Hungarians may need Western protection to survive the attempt and the Poles definitely would. Alternately, Hungary could have been Finlandized earlier on.
Czechoslovakia: Was already a loyal Soviet ally before the 1948 coup. Stalin could have figured out that such a takeover would only hurt the cause of communism in Western countries. Finlandization may end up being called "Czechoslovakization," and don't it just roll off your tongue?