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July 1944: the Valkurie conspiracy succeeds in killing Hitler and arresting or killing the top echelons of the Nazi hierarchy. The Heer rank and file, the state bureaucracy, and the large majority of the Waffen-SS give their allegiance to the new government, there are some pockets of resistance by the Gestapo and SS throughout Europe, but they quelled after a few hours or days of fighting. The new government goes on the air, announcing their intentions to reestablish a “civil and Christian” government which is responsible to the German people and respectful of basic rights and liberties after the war is over. They also pledge their dedication to reestablish a “just and honorable peace” between Germany and the Allied nations.

British and American reaction is mixed: Churchill and Roosevelt reaffirm their dedication to the principle of unconditional surrender, public opinion is hostile to a negotiated compromise peace, but a sensible reduction of overall animosity to the German people is perceivable now that they ousted the Nazis. A majority wishes a quick end to the conflict and supports opening talks to discuss “humane and honorable” terms of surrender. The Soviet government remains hostile to the whole idea, and committed to total victory, denouncing the whole idea as a “fascist facade”.

August 1944: due to mounting political pressure, the Anglo-Americans begin talks in Sweden. The German junta’s naïve expectation of getting a favorable compromise peace that completely preserved its political independence, professional army, and the 1914 borders with Poland are quickly shot down when the Anglo-Americans insist on a complete surrender. Military operations settle on a lull on the Western and Italian Front as the Western Allies and the Germans wait for the result of the negotiations. The Wehrmacht withdraws large amounts of troops and supplies from those theaters and sends them to the Eastern Front. German resistance against the Soviets noticeably stiffens, despite the Red Army's intensified pressure to achieve a breakthrough.

In Italy, German troops arrest Mussolini and disarm the Fascist militias. The German junta is given complete evidence of the scope of the Final Solution. Horrified at the implications, they quickly shut down the process, sending all the humanitarian relief they can muster to the internees and making a nationwide round-up of the personal involved in the extermination operation, who they jail in the camps (a fitting punishment) for future trials by German or international tribunals.

September 1944: Reassessing their options, the German government comes to the conclusion that a stalemating strategy against the Western Allies in order to exaust them to a compromise peace is not possible and politically counterproductive. They accept the surrender of Germany in principle. They bring a new platform to the negotiation table, which offers a conditional and full surrender to the Anglo-Americans in exchange for guarantees of a) occupation by the Anglo-Americans alone b) the national unity of Germany c) the preservation of its economy d) territorial integrity in its rightful ethnic-linguistic borders e) no collective summary punishment for those innocent of Nazi crimes f) the return of political independence in due time after denazification and democratization are done.

The British government expresses general acceptance of the terms, making a reservation for the rights of Poland and Czechoslovakia. Roosevelt remains hostile to the concept of a conditional separate surrender, but political pressure against him in the Congress and the public begins to mount inexorably when the German governments makes its proposal public. The Republican presidential candidate begins to target Roosevelt’s stance, accusing him of philo-Soviet appeasement and an uncaring attitude towards the lives of American soldiers. Support for Roosevelt plummets in the polls and the resulting stress noticeably accelerates his physical decline.

On September 13, 1944 Roosevelt suffers a fatal stroke. Vice-President Wallace succeeds him, but his radical left-wing political and eccentric religious opinions, as well as his support of racial desegregation, quickly make him very unpopular. The Democratic Party splits: radical New-Dealers support Wallace for the Presidency, conservative Southerners support Sen. Harry Byrd. The centrist majority of the party nominates former Vice-Presidential candidate Harry S. Truman for President but both Wallace and Byrd are nominated by fringe radical left or splinter conservative southern Democratic parties.

Dewey successfully campaigns against the divided Democratic party for refocusing American efforts to defeat Japan and denounces Wallace as a crypto-Communist that would send American soldiers to die in order to aggrandize Stalin and expand Bolshevism in Europe. He pledges to end the war in Europe with full victory by offering honorable German soldiers a humane “Lee’s peace” if they shall stand down and hand over Nazi criminals.

German troops begin a gradual retreat on the Western and Italian fronts towards the borders of Germany, letting the Anglo-Americans advance peacefully. Germany continues to concentrate its troops and supplies stockpiles on the Eastern Front. Despite the Red Army’s frenzied attacks, the Soviets are stalemated on the Niemen in East Prussia and the Narev-Vistula line in Poland, even if they manage to reoccupy the Baltic states and to stage a breakthrough in Romania. German offers for a ceasefire and recognition of the Soviet 1941 borders are rebuffed. Finland signs an armistice with the Soviets, and the Germans retreat from the country.

October 1944: Romania collapses and surrenders to the Soviets. German troops retreat into Transylvania and Hungary and dig in the Carpathian mountains. Soviet troops invade Bulgaria. Anglo-American troops complete the occupation of France, Norway, Benelux countries, and Italy. The Western Allies land in Greece and quickly secure the country from retreating Germans. Tensions between the Anglo-Americans and Communist militias soon explode into open fighting.

The fighting in Greece and Soviet refusal of a ceasefire in Eastern Europe turns the Anglo-American public opinion suspicious of the motives of Stalin and the Communists. The public in both countries is pleased for the bloodless liberation of Western Europe and the collaborative attitude of the new German regime. Support for Roosevelt's legacy and Wallace's platform of close cooperation with the Soviets and a draconian peace with Germany plummets, and approval for Dewey "Lee's peace" in Europe steadily increases, as the American public wishes a quick end to the war in the European theater and to "finish the job" and settle the score of Pearl Harbor with Japan.

November-December 1944: On election day - November 7 - Dewey receives 24 million votes to Truman's 22 million, and in the Electoral College, Dewey defeats Truman 287 to 193. Sen. Byrd receives 2 million popular votes and 50 in the electoral college. Henry Wallace receives one million popular votes and no electoral ones. Wallace resigns the Presidency and Secretary of State Cordell Hull takes over as Acting President. The Acting President pledges to take heed of the people's will in settling the situation in Europe and Japan.

Renewed negotiations between the German government and the Western Allies bring to the following agreement, signed in Stockholm: full and complete surrender of German forces to the Anglo-Americans, occupation of Germany by the Anglo-Americans, Western Allies' guarantee of national unity and territorial integrity of Germany in its pre-Munich borders, except for East Prussia, cession of Sudetenland to Czechoslovakia, West and East Prussia to Poland, and evacuation of the German nationals thereof, relocation of the Polish minority in Silesia to Prussia, preservation of non-military German industry, lack of Soviet occupation and collective punishments for the German people, the trial of surviving Nazi leaders and war criminals before international tribunals, full denazification of German society, return in “due time” of demilitarized Germany to political independence and a market economy. Germany shall pay reparations to countries it has invaded, the amount of which shall be established by the occupying powers in agreement with the wronged parties.

Concerning the Soviet issue, the accords state that Germany ought to withdraw from all pre-war Soviet territory (largely a moot issue by the time), and respect all accords between the Western Allies and the Soviet Union concerning the settlement of Eastern Europe. German troops on the Eastern front which fought in occupied or Axis countries are to surrender to incoming Anglo-American troops, and to establish and respect ceasefires between them and the Soviets whenever possible, but are not obliged to surrender to the Soviets.

Anglo-American troops quickly sweep Germany, disarming unresisting Wehrmacht troops. German troops in Prussia, Poland, Hungary hold out against Soviet forces until the arrival of the Anglo-Americans. The Red Army, assisted by Communist Yugoslav militias, sweep Serbia and Vardar Macedonia. German troops, assisted by Croat and Hungarian forces, however manage to hold out in Vojvodina, on the Sava-Danube line, and in Bosnia, on the Drina, until the Anglo-Americans arrive. Hungary surrenders to the Western Allies. Western Allies troops advacning from Greece along the Adriatic coastline secure Albania.

Stalin is besides himself with rage at being largely shut out of Central Europe and Soviet propaganda denounces the Western “betrayal” but eventually dares not to open another war with the Anglo-Americans. Difficult negotiations between the Western Allies and the Soviets at Yalta produce the following agreement: the Western Allies recognize the 1941 borders of the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union recognizes the borders and poltical status of Germany as defined in the Stockholm Accords, Romania, Bulgaria, and Finland are acknowledged in the Soviet sphere of influence, Western Europe, Greece, Albania, Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia are acknowledged in the Anglo-American sphere of influence. All such countries shall be allowed national sovreigntiy, political independence, and a democratic government. Poland and Yugoslavia shall be provisionally divided into Western and Soviet occupation zones until a unitary government can be elected, subsequently to become neutral states (for Yugoslav nationalities, referendums shall decide whether a unitary multinational state or a set of separate nationals tates shall be restored). The territories of Transylvania and Vojvodina, which Hungary annexed during the war, are to be provisionally administered by the Anglo-Americans until a referendum shall define their ownership. War crimes and crimes against humanity and democracy by individuals of Axis powers shall be tried by international tribunals. Reparations by Axis powers towards invaded countries were acknowledged, their amount to be established by negotiations between the occupying powers and the wronged countries.

Stalin reluctantly accepts the Yalta accords as a recognition of the military situation on the ground, but denounces the armistice with Finland, quoting specious violations of the ceasefire, and orders the occupation of the country: after an heroic resistance, the Finnish army is overwhelmed and Finland is occupied by the Soviets.

War in Europe officially comes to an end on January 10, 1945, as Finland surrenders (albeit barely contained hostility simmers in Greece between the Communists and Anglo-Americans, and Communists in other European countries stockpile weapons and prepare for Moscow’s orders). The gaze of the Stalin and the Western Allies powers turns east.
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