Your statement indicates a POD earlier then July 20th Plot:
Why ? Germans didn't expell there a large number of people-circa 80,000 IIRC.
I think you are confusing this with Wielkopolska were 600,000 Poles were expelled.
So either the POD is earlier then the July 20th or after the events the German nationalists from the plotters begun large scale expulsions.
By whatever means, at the time the London Peace accords are finalized, East and West Prussia are largely devoid of Germans, and Upper Silesia is largely devoid of Poles.
By 20th July Churchill, Stalin and all others already agreed for Poland to gain more of Upper Silesia.
For that matter, they had also agreed to restore a separate Austrian state. But as a result of the huge change created by the fall of the Nazi regime, all such agreements are scrapped.
What you are suggesting goes further then that: that Great Britain violates its treaty with Poland and allows its western border to be changes (Britain never guarenteed eastern border).
Sorry, wrong, back in 1939 they had guaranteed Poland's independence, not territorial integrity (which in London's eyes in 1919-1939, had always been of very dubious value). Anyway, in the monumental shift of international relations that conditional separate surrender of post-Nazi Germany creates, lack of concern for Polish territorial claims is a trivial background noise. It's simply not important to the vast majority of world public opinion, in comparison.
This would mean complete discreditation of international committments and treaties signed by Great Britain as well as them going against the very reason they entered the war.
ROTFL. Here UK and USA are implementing one of the greatest alliance reversals of all time, and do you think the issue is going to be significantly affected one bit by lack of concern for the claims of Polish nationalists ? Ridiculous. Anyway, the Western Allies' war aim, as far as Poland was concerned, was to restore Polish independence against Hitler, not enforce dubious Polish territorial claims. The surrender of Germany ensures the war aim is fulfilled. And the Western Allies are giving Prussia to Poland as an hefty compensation for all WWII losses. It is tragically true that in fact, this is not actually realized, since most of Poland becomes Stalin's slave, but sadly, this could not be avoided, owning to the military realities on the ground, short of immediately starting WWIII, which the Western Allies were utterly unwilling to do, on their own initiative. OTOH, this happened IOTL, too. At least, ITTL, thanks to the PoD, a significant slice of Poland is able to enjoy freedom and prosperity in the NATO/EU camp, throughout the Cold War.
And they tell "Good, our forces now join Red Army and Stalin, bye".
Who are presently busy slaughtering anti-Communist partisans? Suuurrreee.
Besides, which "our forces" ? The London government and the Polish units integrated in the Anglo-American forces, whose very existence is dependent on the Western Allies' goodwill ? Do you think they would dare stage a mutiny if Churchill and the new US Administration do not fulfill Polish claims ? And how is this going not to end in a bloody mess, and make the Anglo-Americans even more hostile to Polish claims ? Apparently the London government had more common sense than this. They take the Prussian pie they are offered, and make themselves content.
and it was demanded by Stalin to have a warm-water port.
Butterflied ITTL.
Churchill is in different situation then USA-Great Britain has signed a treaty where it guarentees Polish western border of 1939. By scrapping that he would create a diplomatic disaster-so easy to exploit by Stalin and Soviets.
A. No, it guaranteed Polish independence, not territorial integrity.
B. Despite what Polish nationalists may think, they are not the center of the world and their dubious territorial claims are quite irrelevant for the rest of the world when world-changing events as the ones of 1944-45 ITTL are occurring and the Cold War is being birthed.
Czechs and Poles are "greedy" because they want their land Nazis stole back ? You have strange beliefs...
The Sudetenland was overwhelmingly German and it was ceded to Germany by a international treaty that all Western Powers subscribed. If anything, Czechs stole a land in 1919 they had no valid national self-determination claim about.
As it concerns Upper Silesia, it was given to Poland in 1921 under dubious circumstances, ITTL in 1944 it is largely devoid of Poles and Poland is getting all of Prussia as compensation.
Self-sustaining ? What do you mean by that statement and what is the base of such claim ? Those areas have neither the industry, population or reasources to be independent.
What ? Have the Polish population, industry, and resources in Posen, Lublin, Lodz, Masovia, suddenly vanished in the air ? Poland has survived fine for centuries without Silesia. This is getting beyond ridiculous.
And what stops a party in Poland going to elections with slogan "Bring Silesia back" and calls to unite Poland ?
Hmm, the fact that the only way to enforce revanchist claims on Allied-occupied Germany would be to start a war against the UK and the USA, which even Stalin is not mad enough to want, since it would end up in nuclear holocaust of the aggressor ? How many votes is your wild-eyed Pro-Soviet extreme nationalist party going to reap, with a "Let's get Posen nuked" party slogan ? Not to mention the fact that this would require putting West Poland under Stalinist yoke, the very moment when the country is rife with stories of Soviet terror from refugees from the Eastern section. Not a successful electoral platform, either. They shall be yet another fringe party of pro-Commie useful idiots, if and until they don't get banned like the Communists themselves.
Really, you would need an occupation and total dictatorship to not have this party win.
Hhm, sure, and Taiwan is going to choose union with the PRC under Mao, too. In these philo-Commie rabid-nationalist pipedreams, maybe. Not in my TL.
This party line may (and indeed is going to) work in Czechoslovakia. Not in West Poland, where the other half of the country can taste the harshness of Stalinist rule firsthand.
And German occupation of Poles in Silesia ?
There aren't many left, just as there aren't many Germans left in Prussia.
You forget that by 1947 there was a government of unity with socialists and PSL which was supported by many in Poland.
You mean, propped up by Soviet bayonets.
You forget that while there was Katyn, it was one massacre compared to dozens made by Germany which dwarfed it. Neither did Soviets treat Poles as untermenchen. In 1945 people are going to remember this and will prefer Soviet rule, as they did in OTL when it replaced German one and Red Army was welcomed in many cities with greetings and flowers as long as it didn't engage in pillaging.
Oh, sure, they shall so much prefer Red Army pillagers and Stalinist tyranny to candy-throwing GIs, and an America showering them with subsidies.
They will be. Soviets will simply promise Finland Poland and restoring Silesia from German occupation.
But Stalin has no interest in truly-neutral united Poland, when he already fully controls most of Poland. His war booty was smaller ITTL, so he is even more interested in total control of what he grasped, same reason he occupied and Sovieticized Finland, and East Poland is a large part of his booty. He's not going to give that up for getting the Anglo-Americans out of Posen. Oh, he may make some promises about that, but they shall be and look so insincere and half-heatrted, that only a very few West Poles shall buy them. The AMericans are no idiots, the monly way tehy would allow Polish reunification to occur is if it becomes a true neutral (and most likely to end up in theri economic sphere anyway) like OTL Austria, not a non-Communist Soviet satellite like OTL Finland. So big net loss for Stalin.
As for "restoring" Silesia from Anglo-American-occupied Germany, Stalin shall NEVER make any public promises about that. That would be tantamount to admitting that the USSR plans to attack Germany and start WWIII any time soon. In other words, "Hey Dewey, I got a really strong urge to renovate old ugly Soviet cities, and that Hitler chap did not make enough of a good demolition work. Could you please land some hundred nukes on the USSR when I go kamikaze and invade Western Europe ?". The closest you are going to see things come to WWIII is in all likelihood when Mao forces a reluctant Stalin in the Far East War, and Mao shall pay a very high price for that folly.
They loosen the control of Poland like they did in 1945-1947 in OTL.
ROTFL
Please cut the Communist propaganda.
The alternative is gaining 150 kilometer range to Berlin from Polish border I believe.
No, the alternative is losing all access to Polish economic resources when links between neutral Poland and the EU shall intensify in the 50s-60s as war memories fade away, not to mention having to withdraw all Soviet forces from neutral united Poland, and place them on the Soviet-Polish border on the Curzon line, since the Americans shall never allow united Poland to become a Soviet satellite. It would be a serious net loss to the Soviet bloc, which fully controls most of Poland, only for the trivial gain of removing American troops from the Warta, which is why Stalin is not doing it.
Oh dear-like in OTL ? You know that this means non-ending feud with West Poland as in OTL most Nazis were never sentenced and had high political positions in German society, government and institutions ?
You are going to kill me with excessive laughing.
Which non-ending feud ? Last time I checked, Germany and Poland were good NATO and EU partners, Germany had sponsored admission of Poland in both organizations, economic and political links between the two nations were flourishing. ITTL West Poland shall not harbor an overwhelming grudge about Silesia just like West Germany did not IOTL. Cold War issues were, and shall be, paramount.
ITTL the Allied occupation powers and democratic German authorites are going to enforce a denazification policy that on the average is going to be slightly more stringent than IOTL (thanks to the mutual policy choice to cast all blame for Hitler's misdeeds on the Nazi and not the German people at large), please check the relevant TL entry. However it is not going to be any more radically extensive than IOTL. In other words, you may see some more Nazi war criminals sentenced (I have tried to tinker with TTL's numbers of Nazi war criminals sentenced and up them somewhat in comparison to OTL, both to account for the fact that Anglo-Americans control all of Germany, but also to indicate this), but there are not going to be any mass punishments for low-key cooperation with the Nazi regime. The latter would not just be contrary to the peace accords, but actually unfeasibile without wrecking society.
This is really unavoidable, and not caused by any malice from Germans or Anglo-Americans, since there is a point, when a society recovers to democracy and rule of law from a dictatorial human-rights-abusive regime, up to where you can pursue punishment and marginalization of people compromised with the old regime, and no further. Past that, you have to pursue reconciliation. The alternative is to unleash economic and social chaos, or enforce radical revolution and total substitution of ruling elites, which typically causes suffering and abuses as bad or worse than the ones of the past regime, and requires/creates a political regime just as tyrannical. Cfr. Mao, Lenin, Robespierre, Pol Pot. As opposed to: Mandela, Gorbachev, Juan Carlos of Spain, democratic Chile and Argentina.
Anyway, this is how things are going to work as it concerns West Poland ITTL:
Out of concerns for brutal Sovietization of East Poland, West Poles eagerly choose to belong in the Western camp, despite concerns about the economic viability of the little country, with most of the economic and population centers occupied by the Soviets. Radical nationalist claims over Silesia are only heeded by a lunatic fringe, since it is obvious that the Americans regard the border established by the London Accords as final, and only a madman would dare challenge them, with the Soviet threat looming.
Since West Poland is precious to the Western camp both as a military buffer and for propaganda purposes (pretty much for the same reason as West Berlin and Taiwan IOTL), the Americans reward this choice with massive economic, military, and political aid, starting with the Dulles Plan, which subsidize West Polish economy and cement its pro-Western loyalty. West Poland joins NATO and budding European cooperation.
When German-led EU forms in the early-mid 50s, its economy soars thanks to the economic boom in countries like Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Sweden and their union into a common economic-political-security space, and West Poland follows its NATO links to become a junior associated partner (and eventually a full member in the 60s) of the EU. Massive EU subsidies and military protection by the pan-european army go to augment American ones, and this aid pretty much buries old WWII resentments. West Poland becomes an European economic tiger, and prepares for the inevitable collapse of the Communist bloc and reunification with its Eastern downtrodden kindred.
Besides, they also have a sorry example in Czechoslovakia of where indulging in old WWII nationalist resentments leads: they become satellites to a quasi-fascist, ultranationalist great power in league with Iberian fascists and Southern African racists and have its money and soldiers shunted off to fight a lot of endless brutal colonial wars throughout Africa and Asia to support their waning imperialist glory. All the while, the EU soars in peace and prosperity. Not a very appealing example.