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I think they would propose a deal with to the allies. I think they would offer surrender in exchange for the Germany's 1937 borders and no Soviet occupation zone. I think there is a good chance that the allies would take the deal. Stalin would not be happy about the united Germany but he would have occupied Eastern Europe as a buffer. So I think that even without an East Germany. the cold war in Europe would go about just as it did OTL. You would not have the Berlin Wall as a symbol of the cold war or its opening as a symbolic act of the demise of communism. The real change would come in China the Soviets if V E day is in late summer of 1944, then the Soviets have more time to sweep over China. China would be a Soviet satellite. They would force Jaing out in 1946. There would be no Hundred Flowers Bloom or Great Leap Forward or Cultural Revolution. China would be a serious drain on Soviet resources. The other big change I see is that with intensive bombing by the entire US Army Air Corps and the RAF, Japan may surrender without the atomic bomb.
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