Valkyrie succeeds.

Adler

Banned
Well, if Valkyrie is successful we will have a stable government. And nearly everyone within the government had little to no relations to the Nazis. That many Nazis were making careers in both Germanies after the war OTL was a neccessary evil. The problem is, that the new government might not be accepted by the Allies.

Indeed we have three possible ways:

1. There is a conditional peace treaty made. That Germany demands at first Austria and the Sudeten might make them get away with Prussia in the end. However, how such a treaty would look like in the end is another question and difficulty to predict.

2. There is an unconditional surrender. That is unlikely though, at least until end of 1944.

3. There is a split between the WAllies and Stalin. This split existed and even Churchill foresaw a kind of war between the west and Russia after the war. In how far it is possible to move the WAllies against Stalin now might be seen too short. Because the glue of the Alliance, Hitler, was gone, the Alliance would break away very soon. Thus an allied Germany might be needed. These thoughts might also influence No. 1 here. Thus making peace with Germany and hoping she is able to stop the Red Menace at one point in the east, might have happened as well.
OTOH, if the WAllies were adamant, Stalin might not. He was looking for his profit. In so far he was acting very capitalistic. So a seperate peace with Germany might have been beneficial to him. The Germans would fight the US and UK thus both hostile powers would fight each other. And he could wait and later try to use the situation. Oh, Stalin was thinking about a seperate peace still in 1944, so it might not be too late.
In both cases millions of Germans could be used on the other front and thus being a huge problem for the other side. For the west even more. Because without the war in the East Germany could now throw new armies on the WAllies, new planes, new resources. Still the WAllies might win the war, but the price might be very much higher. And the might win is not a sure win. They might have lost France, too. Again. And then?

Adler
 

Inhato

Banned
And nearly everyone within the government had little to no relations to the Nazis.
They had many connections to Nazis and at least one of them was tried after the war for war crimes. Others were involved in some nasty things as well. And there were numerous July20th plotters directly involved in genocide.
Well, if Valkyrie is successful we will have a stable government.
Stable government in itself perhaps but not over Germany, as neither SS nor numerous generals and forces especially in East will submit.
There is an unconditional surrender. That is unlikely though, at least until end of 1944.
No other option exists at that point. Although most likely Germany will descent into chaos allowing quicker takeover by Soviets and WAllies.


. Because the glue of the Alliance, Hitler, was gone
The glue was German militarism, nationalism and aggression. Pretty much remaining in place with July20th in power.

There is a split between the WAllies and Stalin.
A fundamental problem is that July 20th plotters wanted to annex Poland and demanded occupation of Eastern Europe. Neither USA or UK will ever agree to that. Especially since UK started the war to preserve Polish western border. The idea that after 5 years of war, and countless sacrifices Western Allies will suddenly agree for Germany to gain what Hitler hoped to gain in 1939 is unrealistic, domination of Eastern and Central Europe would be opposed.
Stalin might not. He was looking for his profit. In so far he was acting very capitalistic. So a seperate peace with Germany might have been beneficial to him.
Except the July 20th plotters weren't interested in peace with Stalin.

Oh, Stalin was thinking about a seperate peace still in 1944, so it might not be too late.
With Germany in chaos and moral crush why should he think of any separate peace? It's obvious that Germany is finished even more than it was in OTL...

In both cases millions of Germans could be used on the other front and thus being a huge problem for the other side.
Hardly millions could be used, and it wouldn't make any long-term difference.By 1944 Germany was already beaten, longer opposition would just mean more harsh treatment of Germany post-war.
 

Adler

Banned
They had many connections to Nazis and at least one of them was tried after the war for war crimes. Others were involved in some nasty things as well. And there were numerous July20th plotters directly involved in genocide.

Please tell me, whom you mean (except Speer). Wrong.


Stable government in itself perhaps but not over Germany, as neither SS nor numerous generals and forces especially in East will submit.

SS was to be disbanded and that worked in 1944 pretty well. Until the news came up Hitler was alive. But with a succeeding Walküre the SS will be marginalized.

No other option exists at that point. Although most likely Germany will descent into chaos allowing quicker takeover by Soviets and WAllies.

No.

The glue was German militarism, nationalism and aggression. Pretty much remaining in place with July20th in power.

The glue was Hitler. Without him the situation changes dramatically.

A fundamental problem is that July 20th plotters wanted to annex Poland and demanded occupation of Eastern Europe. Neither USA or UK will ever agree to that. Especially since UK started the war to preserve Polish western border. The idea that after 5 years of war, and countless sacrifices Western Allies will suddenly agree for Germany to gain what Hitler hoped to gain in 1939 is unrealistic, domination of Eastern and Central Europe would be opposed.

Who said that? Can you prove that?

Except the July 20th plotters weren't interested in peace with Stalin.

Ever heard something about Realpolitik? :rolleyes:

With Germany in chaos and moral crush why should he think of any separate peace? It's obvious that Germany is finished even more than it was in OTL...

In contrast. Without Hitler things will not run that good for the Allies. Their price would be higher.


Hardly millions could be used, and it wouldn't make any long-term difference.By 1944 Germany was already beaten, longer opposition would just mean more harsh treatment of Germany post-war.

Harsher than it came? Doubtly.

Adler
 

Cook

Banned
OTOH, if the WAllies were adamant, Stalin might not. He was looking for his profit. In so far he was acting very capitalistic. So a seperate peace with Germany might have been beneficial to him. The Germans would fight the US and UK thus both hostile powers would fight each other. And he could wait and later try to use the situation. Oh, Stalin was thinking about a seperate peace still in 1944, so it might not be too late.
Stalin hinted at a separate peace to obtain more aid from the western allies, in fact Stalin never seriously considered a separate peace. Stalin, like Churchill was determined that Germany would be occupied and its’ militarism permanently expunged. He also wanted Germany divided into several smaller states that could not re-emerge twenty years down the track to threaten the Soviet Union. As he told his subordinates, the only reason he did not publicly espouse unconditional surrender was that it would render the German Officers Legion worthless if they realised what he planned to do to Germany. A post-Valkyrie German government simple had nothing to offer Stalin that was equal to what the allies had already promised him; at least $20 Billion dollars in reparations to be extracted in the form of gold or industrial equipment from conquered Germany.
3. There is a split between the WAllies and Stalin. This split existed and even Churchill foresaw a kind of war between the west and Russia after the war. In how far it is possible to move the WAllies against Stalin now might be seen too short. Because the glue of the Alliance, Hitler, was gone, the Alliance would break away very soon.
In fact no such split was foreseen at the time and following the death of Hitler in OTL did not occur for another two years. In a post-Valkyrie scenario there is a very solid, durable cement holding the allies together: Japan. The Americans will offer anything, sacrifice anything to get Stalin into the war against Japan.

References to Churchill fail to take into account that he was not a dictator, that he was the first amongst equals in cabinet and he would have to win over the cabinet to any action and there is simply no way the government of national unity would ever have agreed to anything so ludicrous as a compromise peace even if Churchill had wanted it, which he didn’t.
Thus making peace with Germany and hoping she is able to stop the Red Menace at one point in the east, might have happened as well.
There was no Red Menace in 1944; the British public admired the successes of the Red Army more than they did their own troops and the most common demand of the British public in 1943-44 was for the ‘second front now’ to help Uncle Joe. As to the Americans, they were more suspicious of British Imperialist ambitions than any potential Soviet Imperialism.
The glue was Hitler. Without him the situation changes dramatically.
A remarkably Eurocentric view; historically Hitler died 30 April 1945, the split didn’t occur for another two years. Stalin prior to Yalta told his subordinates that he wanted at least twenty years, and preferably fifty years of peace in which to rebuild the Soviet Union before having to confront the Capitalists. Since his advisors were telling him that the British Empire and the United States could not maintain their alliance for long, that their Capitalist systems would inevitably compete against each other for market dominance and that they would suffer economic collapse as they had after the First World War (something the Soviet Union’s command economy had avoided), he had no reason to fight them and every reason to remain peaceful and benefit from the inevitable opportunities post war. For the Americans, they wanted Soviet help with their war, the war against Japan. As to the British, they wanted a chance to somehow hold the Empire together, something most of them already knew they had no chance of achieving.
But with a succeeding Walküre the SS will be marginalized.
Okay, this should be entertaining; how exactly does someone marginalise the Waffen SS, an army numbering close to 950,000 men and comprising forty-two Divisions, including seven Panzer Divisions and four Panzergrenadier Divisions? And these aren’t just any combat troops, these are a mob that had a reputation for bloody minded fanaticism that they maintained right through to the end.
 
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Inhato

Banned
Please tell me, whom you mean (except Speer). Wrong.
Ewald Loeser, the plotters candidate for minister of finance.
Do you know how long the list of people in July 20th plot that committed war crimes or were part of genocide operations?
Tresckow-war crimes in Russia in anti-partisan operations, orders to kidnapp children for slave labor, cooperation with Einsatzgruppen.
Arthur Nebe-genocide of Roma, T4 action, devised gas vans, led Einsatzgruppen in Belarus, mass murdered thousands of Jews
Stülpnagel -ordered to single out Jews for punishment even if they were not guilty for sabotage, executions of French civilians
Eduard Wagner-drew up regulations in June 1939 that allowed soldiers to murder civilians to crush resistance..

Others can be named as well, but I think this shows the picture well enough..



Who said that? Can you prove that?
Said what? That Britain and France guaranteed Polish western border? It's an well known historic fact. Was that your question?

Harsher than it came? Doubtly.

Germany was let go pretty easily considering what it tried to do to others.Under different conditions very harsher, perhaps Stalin would want to recreate the original boundary between Slavs and German state, rather than just with Poland.But that would be pretty much very drastic thing.
One can also see things like actually punishing Nazis instead of figureheads or establishing Sorb state etc.
 
If Valkyrie succeeds, and Germany surrenders shortly after, how much smaller will the USSR be in late 1944 (before Stalin is really in any political position to expand, and he doesn't try to argue for 'occupying' all the ex-Nazi terrotories)? The only map I've been able to find seems to suggest a lot smaller, with more-or-less nothing of Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania or anything beyond them, and only about 40% of pre-war Poland and little or nothing of Modern Poland.

Here's the map BTW.
europe_1944.jpg

And the site it came from.

On a further note, how long would it take Stalin to try expanding.
 
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