Valcour Island=Saratoga

Oct. 11 1776 Benedict Arnold patiently watches the British squadron sailing with a stiff southerly wind sail past the southern tip of the island which conceals his squadron. The Thunderer and Carleton in the lead followed by the smaller schooners and gunboats sail past unmolested. Arnold looking back towards the north sees his targets begin to approach. Nearly 400 bateaux each loaded with two dozen of the finest soldiers in the world, Hessians armed with rifles and bayonet, but thats all.

Arnold gives the order, his fleet moves out led by his two large row galleys followed by the sloop Enterprise three schooners and a dozen war gondolas. In front of them over 7000 enemy soldiers, all effectively helpless. The British warships with the wind at their backs are effectively out of the battle for at least a day even if they soon realize their mistake.
 
Basically yes. Arnold realizes that with a southerly wind if he lets the British warships pass they're effectively out of the action, so he can jump on the undefended transports.
 
Interesting, a decisive American victory at Valcour Island would definitely get the Americans foreign recognition much like the battle of Saratoga did in OTL. But even if Arnold gets in among the British Transports there's still the problem of the British naval superiority. True, Arnold does have the wind guage but even so the American's fleet is pretty outclassed.

The best bet for Arnold is to contest Lake Champlain and effectively deny it to the British. If he manages to do this Britain may throw out the Saratoga campaign all together and focus on the American South earlier than OTL. This, coupled with earlier foreign involvement might shave a few years off the ARW.

At the very least, Benedict Arnold's life will be really different...
 
Well yeah I was thinking about that too. After Arnold deals with the transports he still has to fight the warships. In OTL the Thunderer didn't even get into action until the next day and the Carleton only late in the day, so in the ATL Arnold has a decision to make for action on the next day.

I see three options for him.

1. He can run for it and try for Crown Point
2. He can fight it out in the harbor like in OTL
3. He heads for the open lake and too use the superior maneuverability of his row galleys and gondolas to gain a tactical advantage.
 
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