Uyghur China?

[8Deer]

In 779, the Uyghur khagan Bogu wanted to invade China, but was opposed by his general Tun Bagha Tarqan, who eventually killed and overthrew him. If Tun Bagha Tarqan never challenges the Khagan or Bogu Qaghan manages to defeat him, could the Uyghurs have lead a successful invasion of China? If not, are there any better times that the Uyghurs could have conquered much of China, like the Mongols and Manchu did?

One of the reasons why I chose this POD rather than any earlier ones is that the Uyghurs had officially converted to Manichaeism by this point, which makes things interesting...

 

[Ahura Mazda]

I don't know much about the Uighurs in this time, would they have the power to win? The Tang have been weakened now though, so maybe...

If they did, would they try to convert China? If they do, I doubt they could succed with a complete conversion, but many people would probably convert, 10-20% perhaps? That's alot of people considering this is in China...

Long term Manichaeismmight die out just like in OTL, but I doubt it. Just like Judaism, Nestorian Christianity and Islam it would probably survive in small communities in China but die out in Mongolia, or at best be implemented in traditional Chinese religion and have a position like Taoism.

Politicaly in China it won't have a huge effect in the long term, eventually a Song/early Ming-analogue will come along with all it's effects... More importantly, this would butterfly the mongol invasions

But if on the other hand the Uyghurs "pull a Genghis" (Does that term exist? It should.) the effects will be great all across the world... Would the Abbasids in their prime be strong enough to resist? At least they would be strong enough to protect Bagdadh and Mesopotamia...

 

[8Deer]

I don't know much about the Uighurs in this time, would they have the power to win? The Tang have been weakened now though, so maybe...

I'm a really bad judge of this sort of thing so I don't know. I do know however, that the Uyghurs were nearly the height of their power around this time and that the Tang had just defeated An Lushan's rebellion, which had severely weakened them, so it seems like a good opportunity for the Uyghurs...

If they did, would they try to convert China? If they do, I doubt they could succed with a complete conversion, but many people would probably convert, 10-20% perhaps? That's alot of people considering this is in China...

I doubt they would try to "convert" China per se, but Manichaeism was a very syncretic religion. Since it would be the main religion of the court, many aspects of it could possibly have been blended into the Buddhist/Taoist/Confucian religious traditions of China. Also, I think Manichaeism has the potential to survive longer in this situation, since the Uyghurs will most likely bring a few priests along with them.

But if on the other hand the Uyghurs "pull a Genghis" (Does that term exist? It should.) the effects will be great all across the world... Would the Abbasids in their prime be strong enough to resist? At least they would be strong enough to protect Bagdadh and Mesopotamia...

That's another interesting thought. If we invent a "Great Man", it's possible I suppose...

 

[Yinglong Fujun]

I'm a really bad judge of this sort of thing so I don't know. I do know however, that the Uyghurs were nearly the height of their power around this time and that the Tang had just defeated An Lushan's rebellion, which had severely weakened them, so it seems like a good opportunity for the Uyghurs...

These Uyghurs, called Huhei by Tang, lent a very decent amount of troops to Tang to help quell the rebellion just a decade before; Surely it gained quite some influence in the Tang court and the land in China proper, plus possessing a formidable army as opposed to the nominal king in Chang'an. This is indeed the best chance for them to pull a Genghis, at least onto East Asia, if they managed to sweep away the cluster of autonomous commanders all over the country.

However whether the impetus would be enough to carry it on to SW Asia or not, is in question, as their opponent would be Abbasids, still in their first few decades.

 

[MNP]

Maybe an alliance with Tibet? Aren't they on the rise in this period?

I maintain that the best way to actually permanently reduce Chinese power is to turn those regions of China over-taken by the nomads largely into pasture for horses. You only have a limited time, there was a change in climate during the latter part of the 9th century that made northern steppe much drier forcing populations south and that lasted for two centuries.

 

[subversivepancakes]

This is a really interesting idea. Nevertheless, even assuming that the Uyghurs did invade in 779, I think it's very doubtful that they would be able to conquer most or all of China. The obvious comparison is to the Mongols, and their empire was more organized and centralized than the Uyghur Khaganate. They also had far greater reserves of manpower to draw upon, as well as all the benefits of having conquered most of Central Asia before turning their attention to China. Furthermore, the Tang Dynasty would be a much more formidable foe for the Uyghurs - even in the wake of the An Shi Rebellion - than the Song Dynasty was for the Mongols. Remember that the Song had been driven out of Northern China entirely before Genghis Khan even came on the scene.

The best way I can see to make a Uyghur conquest of most/all of China possible is to butterfly things so that the An Shi Rebellion is more successful. Say that An Lushan isn't assassinated by his son after the fall of Chang'an. It's possible that this would result - at least temporarily - in a divided China scenario, and if the Tang Dynasty and the Yan Dynasty are deadlocked, this could pave the way for a Uyghur invasion of China. Perhaps they could play one side off against the other, and then pick up the pieces.