USSR with half industrial output and no Baku oil but with defensive strategy against Barbarossa

Let say Soviet Union lose baku oil in 1918 permanently and are forced to develop Volga oil fields instead
Soviet don't get imperial russian gold back in 1920 of 50 million pound. That two factors slash Soviet industrial output in half because foreign exchange shortage . Soviet could not import large scale turnkey factories form west in 1920s. So that Soviet have 10000 tanks instead of 20000 tanks in iotl in 1941. So that Soviet are weaker in 1941
Because Soviet are weaker than iotl in 1941 they choose defensive strategy .bulk red army stay close to Stalin line
Could Soviet stop German at dvina- Dnieper line with defensive strategy and lower industrial output?
 
It is a close call...if you manage to curb Soviet output to such an extent this is durely going to affect them very negatively. Anyway if they still get material from the west, they are going to win no matter what. The amount of resources the soviets received is unimagineable, and even more important, the usa could have shipped twice more, if needed. The whole point of ww2 was not Soviet war production, nor the battle of stalingrad, not even direct American military action...it was american cyclopic industrial capability. As long as USA helps germany's enemies. Even without shooting one bullet, teh allies are going to win any attrition war, as there ia literally no limit to the amount of resources they can send to england or soviet union.
 
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