What if the Soviet Union successfully quelled the mujahideen insurgency in Afghanistan sometime in the early 1980s and established it as a communist puppet state, as unrealistic as it sounds?
What I’m mainly curious about is what would happen next. Realistically what would happen after a Soviet victory in this war? What were they planning to do from there?
As I implied before this is more of a hypothetical scenario than a realistic one based on events that happened in real life as it is infamously hard to win a war in Afghanistan. I’m mainly curious as to what would happen after this if the Soviet’s initial plan went as intended.
Well, the initial Soviet plan was for the Soviets to stabilize the new Karmal regime, and withdraw in six-twelve months, after most of the country was secured, so that the new Afghan regime could handle the rest for themselves. The problem is, thats close to impossible to achieve.
First, the Afghan communists were, even before the Soviet arrival, extremely unpopular, with the support of around 10-15% of the population, mostly in the urban areas. Their land reform was a failure that lead to the Afghan food production falling in its amount, and to several urprisings, so much that the first communist leader Muhammad Taraki decided to scale it down. After he got a mild case of assasination, his successor Amin went so far as to declare himself a devout muslim, and the communist revolution an islamic one, while also blaming the twenty thousand people already executed by the red's merely his predeccesor's fault. Didn't help and by the time the Soviet's actuallly invaded, the government had almost completely lost control outside of the major cities. Karmal then returned a large part of the land and property taken under the land reform, while promissing reforms, freedom of speach and appointment of non-communists, while also returning to a more traditional flag. To be fair to him, these policies were actually implemented and might have even worked, however the problem were the Soviets, who the Afghans hated as foreign invaers (which they were), and Karmal as their puppet (which he at least partially was). Also, the Afghan millitary bassically ceased to be an effective fighting force after the Soviet intervention, with only 25000 of its previous 100 000 men remaining, and even them being quite demoralized. Funnily enough, after Karmal was ousted by the Soviets in 1986, and later the Soviet withdrawal, his successor Najbullah actually managed to increase his public support.... by renouncing Marxism, partially breaking relations with the USSR, and declaring Afghanistan an Islamic republic. He still lost against the Mujahadeen, but lasted several years more then anyone expected.
Next giant issue is Afghanistan itslef. The Soviets planned to merely secure towns and roads at firs, considering the mountains unnecessary to controlling Afghanistan, expecting any rebels to not last long in them. The problem is, they swiftly realized that they would actually have to take the badly reachable areas, if they wanted to secure Afghanistan, beacause leaving them alone would be letting the Mujahadeen time to strenghten, and then launch counter-attack. So, if the USSR wants to win in Afghanistan, they actually have to control its entirity, not merely the roads and main settlements. This is extremely difficult, and will definetly take over the expected year. Another problem, if you leave nay part in the Mujahadeen hads, they are amost certain to get aid, either from the US, or from the Pakistanis and Saudis. Who can continue to arm them for a fraction of the cost the Soviets have to spend on this whole thing.
So, let's say that the Soviets manage to secure the entire Afghanistan by 1983. Not especially realistic but possible in theory. First off, their plan to leave the things to their puppet governmant is close to impossible. The Afghan communist army is no longer an actuall battle worthy force, the popular support, especially due to the Regime's ties to the Soviets, is close to null, and the moment the Soviets withdraw, the Mujahadeen will start flooding back from Pakistan, while new ones will rise in the country itself. Building the Afghan army back up is also not realistic, due to the population hating your guts. So the two options are either: leave your puppet to die and make the entire adventure worthless, or double down and try to permanently occupy the country.
Oh, sidenote, conquering the entirity of Afhanistan has probably cost the Soviets close to what they spent in OTL for the entire thing, while also perhaps leading to an even bigger body count.
So option 1 is unlikely for the moment. While the old pig Brezhnev is thankfully buried by this point, withdrawing now, when USSR has in theory won, would turn them into the laughing stock.
So, option 2 it is. Now, you have to hold much bigger area then in OTL, having to crush any urprising quickly, while facing incursions from Pakistani borders, while desperatly trying to turn the Afghan army and regime into a somewhat stable entity, which is not really possible, beacause as long as USSR is present, the regime will be associated with foreign occupiers and hated by the people.
I would say the whole thing is even worse then OTL. The USSR will have to throw even more money, and suffer even more losses, untill they get a leader who will be ready to admit that the whole thing is untenable. In this case, ""victory"", is likely to lead the USSR into an even faster collapse, or at the very least be an even bigger money, lives and prestige sink then OTL.
