USSR winning the cold war.

USSR winning the cold war

For the USSR to win the Cold War, I don't believe that there need be any military confrontation or decisive series of proxy wars that concluded in definative Soviet victories.

Essentially, in the OTL, the US and its allies won by outspending the Soviets in military expenditures, creating an economic instability that was untennable for a centralized and highly inflexible national economy.

In the ATL, the Soviets more or less match the per-capita defense expenditure of the United States, backfiring the American strategy. The essential task is not to outspend or outclass the US in weaponry, but to make programs such as Reagan's "Star Wars" necessary and vital, due to a perceived threat, whether or not it is real. Theoretically, a highly centralized and state-run economy should be able to meet this objective relatively easily, although this does make the assumption that no regard for the standard of living on the part of the Soviet citizenry is taken into account by Moscow. Even if we assume that the same leaders assume power, this scenerio is still tennable, although it does require a Stalinist absolutism on their part. In essance, the Soviet economy is completely war directed, on par with WWII, but it being in "peace-time".

This strategy forces the United States to spend, spend, spend on military endeavors, which may or may not be utilized. In a liberal democracy, this creates certain political complications, as the government is (or at least should be) representative of the popular will, which, seeing little practicle need for massive defensive spending, would clamour for a reduction. The Soviets, using dictatorial measures and means, would not have to answer to such demands, as dissenters could be eliminated by the traditional Stalinist means. So long as the Soviets give little regard to the livelihood of their citizenry, they come out on top. America tires of the massive defense spending by the mid to late 90's and concedes defeat through strategic military limitations. By this I mean that a Soviet invasion of the United States is rendered impotent by the threat of a massive conventional war which would reduce the global position of each nation, but the Soviet Union ultimately remains intact and functional as a geopolitical unit. Eastern Europe remains under the Soviet yoke and the United States, while still militarily strong and viable, succumbs to an economic depression which slowly wilts its economic superiority. Western Europe, seeing the frailty of the American position, still forms something similar to the European Union, but embarks on trade and economic relations with the Soviets.

Communism remains, although the hostility is somewhat lessened. The downgraded American international position leads to a political radicalization of the US, and it either becomes a semi-hostile nation or is ultimatley mired in economic stagnation.

peace,
Krumbum
 
In this TL, the Soviet attack on Iran is seen as justified even by many nations... it was after all to rescue hostages. Australia and Canada also see an economic opportunity, so they increase grain exports when the US imposes an embargo.

This is clearly the worse way to get hostages.

Also, you've said that a Finlandized Arabia and Kuwait are selling oil at absurdly high prices to appease the USSR; if that is true, the west will recognize it.

And respond accordingly.

Iraq is a Soviet not a US ally. Iraq gets Arabistan from Iran.

So, in the presence of a hostile, belligerent Iraq, Saudi Arabia.... finlandizes itself, rather than requesting the presence of US troops?

Herm.

US arms to Iran can only come in through Turkey (very mountaineous border), through Pakistan (very hostile desert border along way from anywhere), or by sea (but Soviets control the coast, and can monitor anything going through the Straits of Hormuz). The Iranian resistance is ineffective, and there are left-wing elements in the early Iranian revolution who can accommodate with a pro-Soviet regime.

The Iran-Iraq war seems to indicate that, if pushed, Iranians would have fought fiercely against a foreign invader. Sure, maybe the USSR can do better; then they face a huge islamist guerilla conflict that makes Pakistan look like a walk in the park.
 
A nuklear device goes of in West Germany. It looks like a accident but it could have been a Soviet sabotage. Germany turns pacifistic and expel all US forces and the Soviets are not dumb enough to attac. The USSR looks like a superpower while the US goes isolationistic.
 
You need to remember that in the early part of the Afghanistan war, it was pretty one-sided - with the soviets largely winning.

The guerillas only inflicted heavy losses on the soviets, after they got advanced weapons from the US, e.g. stinger missiles, in the 2nd Reagan administration.

Whether or not the guerillas got these supplies was a close run thing: the establishment in the state department and military, didn't want to supply them. Reagan did.

It's not impossible to imagine that a more dovish administration, may take the career beaucrats' advice and not supply advanced weapons: So in this TL, the supplies to the Iranians guerrillas are the same type of stuff that the Afghan guerillas got in the first years of the Afghanistan conflict: third hand Lee Enfields from Egypt and Pakistan and such like.


As for lots of US troops turning up in Saudi Arabia: if somebody other than Bush Sr. had been in the whitehouse in 1990, would they have been certain to be sent then? Remember the whole Carter RDF idea was based on being able to intervene, even if having no bases in the region.

If necessary, maybe we could also turn up the Israel/Lebanon conflict in this TL, with the US helping Israel more openly, so US forces are extra unwelcome in Arabia.
 
Could that ever been possible?
No.Communism is a impossible system to maintain without massive doses of terror,it simply isnt natural.Its fall was inevitable.Much more predictable is a quick US defeat of communism in WW2.The US refuses to support communist movements in Asia against Japan.After the Soviets refused to acknowledge the agreement with America regarding what to do with a conquered Europe,and organized Communist governments in Eastern Europe,the US and Britain dont take it the way they did in OTL,and demand the Soviet withdrawal.Stalin refuses.The western powers attack,Berlin falls in a few weeks,Poland and Czechoslovakia in the few months,and the US invades Russia in March 1946.At this point the US simply nukes Moscow and its over.Communism falls and there never was a Cold War.
But a lot of you are probably thinking "But wait,they couldnlt have beaten them that easily!"Yes,they could.A lot of people dont realize just how badly Russia suffered in the war.15-20 million dead versus a German total of about 300,000.They "won" only because of Stalins willingless to sacrifice massive amounts of troops to push the Germans out.Also they had to adopt a "scorched earth" strategy,destroying everything in the path of Hitlers forces.The US was in nothing like that state.The economy was roaringly succesfull by this time,the US had not been attacked at all through the war.The Depression was over.The Soviets were in absolutely no condition to wage another version of this with America and England,which combinded would have brought to bear about 80% more troops than what Hitler invaded them with.lAlso about Soviet nukes...part of the reason the US decides to go to war with the Soviets was the decision to to kidnap German scientists to develop nukes,and they and Britain refuse to accept the idea of them being a nuclear power,as they did in OTL.So the scietists are killed by Allied assasins,and youve got to remember even in OTL the Russians did not have nukes until a few years after this.Anyway,a quick Soviet defeat happens,and Communism dies.The US and its allies(UK,Australia,Israel,Canada)are the only countries with nukes for many years after.NATO invades China at some point and crushes Mao,leaving a Nationalist China.
 
Um... this is a "USSR wins" thread, not "SU loses even faster". And that is a bit wanky, in favor of the Americans.
 
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The guerillas only inflicted heavy losses on the soviets, after they got advanced weapons from the US, e.g. stinger missiles, in the 2nd Reagan administration.

Whether or not the guerillas got these supplies was a close run thing: the establishment in the state department and military, didn't want to supply them. Reagan did.

Cite please? I'm curious because the Secretary of State under Carter claims that they began the policy of shipping weapons.

So in this TL, the supplies to the Iranians guerrillas are the same type of stuff that the Afghan guerillas got in the first years of the Afghanistan conflict: third hand Lee Enfields from Egypt and Pakistan and such like.

And whatever the Iranians have on hand.

But then again, I think there's a certain amount of hagiography for Reagan in this thread. And by a certain amount I mean I'm waiting for his deification.


As for lots of US troops turning up in Saudi Arabia: if somebody other than Bush Sr. had been in the whitehouse in 1990, would they have been certain to be sent then? Remember the whole Carter RDF idea was based on being able to intervene, even if having no bases in the region.

RDF?

If necessary, maybe we could also turn up the Israel/Lebanon conflict in this TL, with the US helping Israel more openly, so US forces are extra unwelcome in Arabia.

Ah, I see.
 
Yes Carter did start shipping weapons to Afghanistan, but it was limited basic supplies (like Lee Enfields). And Reagan continued the policy. Until mid 80s, when the advanced stuff got sent over. And, as I said, against professional advice from State Dept. I was reading about this quite recently, I'll have to find the book.

I think one place is probably Ghost Wars by Steve Coll.

Go to Amazon, find the book, and search within for "Lee Enfield", and even the short quotes that Amazon gives, will give you a flavor on this point

RDF = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Deployment_Forces =

These events led to President Carter announcing before a television audience on 1 October 1979 the existence of the Rapid Deployment Forces, or RDF. The concept was to develop forces that could operate independently, with neither forward bases nor the facilities of friendly nations; geographical areas cited as requiring such cover included Korea, the Persian Gulf, and the Middle East.
 
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Yes Carter did start shipping weapons to Afghanistan, but it was limited basic supplies (like Lee Enfields). And Reagan continued the policy. Until mid 80s, when the advanced stuff got sent over. And, as I said, against professional advice from State Dept. I was reading about this quite recently, I'll have to find the book.

Okay, so wait a minute.

Reagan carried out teh same policy until the 1980s. What's your evidence that carter wouldn't have changed his policy as well?

And maybe sooner, since he didn't cave to the Soviets like Reagan did and start selling them grain while they were in the middle of an occupation of a sovereign nation.

I guess we can't all be appeasers like him.

. The concept was to develop forces that could operate independently, with neither forward bases nor the facilities of friendly nations; geographical areas cited as requiring such cover included Korea, the Persian Gulf, and the Middle East.

Ah, so Carter's administration witnessed the restructuring of America's military that continued under Reagan.
 
An Iranian guerrilla resistance would have leftover weaponry from the Iranian army, which would take a lot longer to neutralize than the Afghan army did, thus leaving more opportunities for weapons to get spread around.
 
Two separate points Faeelin

1. My point isn't Carter vs. Reagan for shipping weapons to anti-communists

My point is that it took many years of aid before _advanced_ weapons were shipped, and even then, many people in the US government didn't want to send them. It isn't at all hard to imagine that a Reagan administration deciding not to ship Stingers and other advanced weapons to Afghanistan. And so, I think it isn't too hard to imagine a Carter administration not shipping advanced weapons to the Iranian resistance.


2. Yes Carter upgraded some US forces. That isn't the relevance here.

The relevance here, is that his administration's concept of the RDF, was a force without local bases in the Middle East.

So that means no US boots on the ground in Saudi Arabia or Kuwait.
 
Two separate points Faeelin

1. My point isn't Carter vs. Reagan for shipping weapons to anti-communists

My point is that it took many years of aid before _advanced_ weapons were shipped, and even then, many people in the US government didn't want to send them. It isn't at all hard to imagine that a Reagan administration deciding not to ship Stingers and other advanced weapons to Afghanistan. And so, I think it isn't too hard to imagine a Carter administration not shipping advanced weapons to the Iranian resistance.

But this is an aggressive USSR, which is trying to squeeze the US economically.

Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. In this case, the reaction is a bloody guerilla war.

The relevance here, is that his administration's concept of the RDF, was a force without local bases in the Middle East.

So that means no US boots on the ground in Saudi Arabia or Kuwait.

You're confusing plans for the worst case scenario for those that would happen.

Essentially, what you posit is this:

1) Saudi Arabia and Kuwait decide to "finlandize"(whatever that means, since Finland had a free trade agreement with the EEC since the 70s) rather than ask the US for military protection.

2) Rather than deploy military forces to the region, Carter says "No, we'd rather have the Soviets blockade our oil supply because we have a Rapid Deployment Force!"
 
The Grain embargo had an immediate effect OTL, when done by just America. It had an interesting effect in spurring the formation of Solidarity in Poland, and we started supplying Afghanistan almost immediately.

And, of course, 1982-1983 were years of poor harvests in the USSR OTL.

You say you want a revolution, well you know...

A very valid point.
 
In this TL, the Emir of Kuwait and King of KSA, can look at Vietnam and Iran, especially Iran, to see what happens to US-backed rulers when the USSR comes after them.

Now add the Kuwait/KSA aren't keen on having US forces, because US/Israel relationship.

And add that the point about the RDF: is given the right mood in the USA, and the right administration wedded to the RDF concept, and political difficulties on putting boots on the ground (which was the whole reason for the RDF concept in the first place).... I think you should be able to imagine the US state department saying "We won't put military bases in your country, but if you get into trouble we promise to send the RDF".

Which probably wouldn't be too reassuring too the Saudis/Kuwaitis, when there are a million Soviet + Iraqi troops close at hand.

So I don't think Finlandization is an impossibility in this kind of scenario.

What is Finlandization in this case? It means that KSA + Kuwait rulers stay in power and keep their political systems but accommodate the USSR with a defence relationship (military bases, defense pact, buying Soviet equipment, treaties with the USSR, etc.), media censorship, neutrality in world affairs, general helping the USSR out on economic issues, etc. Something like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finlandization#Paasikivi_doctrine - "Paasikivi doctrine" and "Self-censorship and excessive Soviet adaptation"

And don't forget even without Kuwait/KSA, Iran+Iraq + other Soviet allies, + USSR itself, they would control a lot of world oil, and have a lot of clout in OPEC and OAPEC
 
In this TL, the Emir of Kuwait and King of KSA, can look at Vietnam and Iran, especially Iran, to see what happens to US-backed rulers when the USSR comes after them.

The students overthrew the Shah, and are still getting US weapons.

I'm gonna leave this thread. Have fun discussing a civil war in a more prosperous Mexico.
 
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