USSR vs. the rest of Europe

I did make a constructive post. Here's another. The Nazis were also hammered by the Finns, in 1944.

Here's another: Soviet intelligence and counterintelligence was the best in the world.

A third: Hell would freeze over before the Poles give up their coastline.

Beautiful. Take it up with the people who made those posts.
 

Eurofed

Banned
My point has already been made. Any Soviet victory ever is treated as ASB, because we all know they were nothing but Slavic hordes of cannon fodder; and that you're asking us to assume Stalin is an idiot.

Not ASB, no. Just not the most expected result. The Soviets may indeed win conventional WWII for good (but they still have to fear American nukes) IF they can overrun Germany, Italy, and France in the first Blitzkrieg strategic offensive. This is quite possible in the 1942-43 scenario, but not the most likely outcome, since a Land-Lease-less Red Army would be much less mobile, and they would be rather overextended just going from their 1939 borders to Stettin and Trieste in one continous move. OTOH, if they are stopped at that point, the substantial superior Euro manpower/industrial potential would soon come into play. Basically, this war would play much like a reverse Barbarossa: if the attacker can't overrun the enemy's vital centers in the first strategic offensive, time runs a lot against them.

Nobody is treating the Soviets like dumb cannon fodder, here: notice how they are commonly assumed to overrun Scandinavia, Poland, Eastern Germany, Slovakia, Hungary, the Balkans, and the Middle East, before getting stalemated and pushed back. That's a quite remarkable accomplishment, just like OTL conquests of Nazi Germany. However, they are facing a stronger coalition at the start than Hitler, and America is still rather likely to join the anti-totalitarian crusade in the end. OTOH, just because they won IOTL by eventually achieving decent competence (but being war gods by no means), tapping and exhausting all their resources, and getting a huge help by America, we do not need to deem reasonable that they would walz to the Channel without a sweat.

As it concerns Stalin, he was no idiot, but he was rather more paranoid than Hitler, only somewhat less megalomanic and a gambler, but just as prone to make bad mistakes about his enemies' ability or willingness to fight (Winter War, Barbarossa, Korean War, Titoist split). As such, in a TL where he got no sobering Barbarossa experience, it is wholly plausible that he would underestimate the ability or willingness to fight of the Western powers, and hence think he come get away with snatching Tsarist claims, until he makes one aggression too many, or deem that the capitalist powers are making a united front against him (and he has no german-western divide to exploit), and hence decided he needs to unleash a pre-emptive attack.

From our hindsight PoV, the Soviet decision to invade Europe only looks foolhardy because we take respective industrial potentials, strategic and logistic overstretch, and American intervention into consideration. However, such issues were not usually taken much into account by WWII leaders, especially not by the dictators. Therefore, with a fully expanded and modernized Red Army, Stalin may easily feel he has a reasonably good chance of overwhelming the capitalist powers before they can muster. Most likely a wrong gamble, in light of the above factors, but not a dumb one.

I did make a constructive post. Here's another. The Nazis were also hammered by the Finns, in 1944.

I fail to see how this would be relevant to our scenario at all.

Here's another: Soviet intelligence and counterintelligence was the best in the world.

In our WWII, they were helped considerably by the fact that they were official allies during most of the war, so the western powers lowered the guard against Soviet espionage and Communist infiltration. They would not have such a free ride in a WWII where they are the hated enemy of western civilization. Intelligence-wise, they would probably fare somewhat better than OTL Nazis, but not substantially more so. Most Communist sympathizers, a huge help to WWII Soviet espionage IOTL, would be singled out and interned wthin days or weeks of the declaration of war. Western intelligence services and patriotic citizens would be on the lookout for people that expressed Communist sympathies in the past. The likes of Kim Philby and Klaus Fuchs would be rooted out.

A third: Hell would freeze over before the Poles give up their coastline.

ITTL, Britain and France are all but guaranteed to look the other way when Germany claims the Corridor, either before or after the war. And without them, Poland has no chance of resisting. They would either be forced to back down in Munich II conference, crushed into a quick German-Polish war before the Soviet attack, or the German armies, who played a decisive part into kicking back the Soviet hordes, would claim back the devastated area when the Red Army is pushed back. Britain and France would give as much scarce concern to Polish post-war claims on the Corridor as they did on their laims on eastern territories IOTL.

Besides, after the war, Poland, like the rest of Eastern Europe, would have bigger, more basic concerns than Danzig or the Corridor. After several years of being a major battlefield, and a merry atrocity playground for the NKVD, Poland would be in such a devastated state that they would be in dire need of German and Euro help for survival and reconstruction, and probably at least somewhat grateful for being liberated. They would get abudant economic help in exchange for forgetting their ill-conceived 1919 claims. Morevoer, ITTL they would keep all their pre-war eastern territories, and maybe add some bit, so they fare not so bad at all.
 
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I get most of whats been said here, but I'm curious as to what POD would 1) Allow the survival of the Wiemer government, and 2) Cause Britain and France to just let Germany have the Corridor and Danzig. Hitler takes a bullet in WWI? (my guess is some other right-wing crazy takes his place-and it still doesn't explain #2). More leinient Versallies? (Hmm, have to get rid of Clemenceu at least, probably the Lloyd George as well. Will have substantial butterflies)
 

Eurofed

Banned
I get most of whats been said here, but I'm curious as to what POD would 1) Allow the survival of the Wiemer government, and 2) Cause Britain and France to just let Germany have the Corridor and Danzig. Hitler takes a bullet in WWI? (my guess is some other right-wing crazy takes his place-and it still doesn't explain #2). More leinient Versallies? (Hmm, have to get rid of Clemenceu at least, probably the Lloyd George as well. Will have substantial butterflies)

Well, #2 is easily explained if you put any other German leader in change that would not betray Munich and invade Czechia, obviously refusing sensible compromises over Polish claims, and generally being as war-happy as Adolf. Britain was practically dragged into giving Poland a guarantee because Hitler invaded Czechia and was otherwise a blatant trigger-happy bully that wanted war to get all of Poland. Respect Munich, display a bit more diplomatic tact in claims over Poland, and Britain and France would be quite happy to make Munich II over Danzig and the Corridor. British leaders always had severe reservations over the feasibility and fairness of 1919-21 borders.

As for the PoD, there may be several, even if you are right about the effects of simply killing Adolf in WWI. Putting a more sane right-wing regime in charge of Germany would be enough to fulfill the scenario, but since the OP postulated a democratic Germany, I'm rather fond of the successful Munich coup. Delay Chamberlain's acceptance of the German terms at Munich by 1-2 dyas. Hitler would give the order to attack, the prepared coup by anti-Nazi officers would go off, after some housecleaning, the Heer would restore a constitutional monarchy, basically democratic but with some caveats into place: the Communists banned like the Nazis, corrections to the Weimar constitution to root out political instability and weakness of the executive, and the officer corps acknowleded as the ultimate guardian of the system. This PoD fulfills the scenario nicely since it boots out the Nazis before they can do real damage, leaves Germany reasonably strong with some substantial rearmament done and most sensible irredentist claims fulfilled (and again, Britain and France are all but sure to grant the Sudetenland, Danzig, and the Corridor to a sane Germany, and with little butterflies), essentially satisfied and ready to close ranks with the other euro powers against the threat from the East.
 
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My point has already been made. Any Soviet victory ever is treated as ASB, because we all know they were nothing but Slavic hordes of cannon fodder; and that you're asking us to assume Stalin is an idiot.


Well, to be fair, if he had made the decision to declare war on the entirety of continental Europe, then I think the argument could be made that he was being an idiot. I mean Hitler made a similar decision, and he is hardly remembered for his strategic vision.

Another thing to remember is that the Red Army of this TL is not going to be much like the one that fought and bled against the Wermacht, rather it is going to bear far more resemblance to that which fought the winter war, albeit somewhat better, but still lacking severely. Also it is possible that without German troops on Russian soil the Purges may be far worse than in OTL, some key leaders from the RA may not be alive to see the end of the war. Without learning its lessons the hard way against the Germans the Red Army is going to be severely lacking in good equipment, logistics, proper training, and strong leadership. Also the airforce is going to be deficient against the rest of europe, the RAF and Luftwaffe are going to turn the Red Airforce into so much flaming debris within the first year of the war. The Royal Navy alone will tie up the Soviet Navy and put it at the bottom of the ocean quite effectively. The US will have every reason to want to help with the fight, as much as Americans feared Fascism, they feared communism even more. So it is very possible that the US will be entering the war or at least supplying tons and tons of military equipment. Simply put the Soviets are screwed six ways before sunday.
 
Be more specific... which countries?
I was thinking of countries like Yugoslavia for example.
As I said, however:
This can only work if Stalin decides to push Communist propaganda for years before he starts the attack.
 
However, they are facing a stronger coalition at the start than Hitler, and America is still rather likely to join the anti-totalitarian crusade in the end.
As I said before:
It depends on what state Germany is at this point.

If a nazi-less Germany is consumed by political instability and the Germans do not manage to get their act together to rebuild their economy and rearm themselves, they would be toast.
If they do manage to pull this off, then they stand a fair chance to stop the Soviets.

I am not certain if the Soviets would actually have to invade all of Eastern Europe before going for Germany and France. In OTL Germany managed to annex or vassalize a lot of its neighbouring countries. Without the German sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and with Soviet propaganda, the same could have been achieved by Stalin, before the war actually started.
The Republicans may have managed to win in Spain, without nazi-Germany supporting Franco's troops, thus providing a first taste of how "revolution" works.
 

Eurofed

Banned
I was thinking of countries like Yugoslavia for example.
As I said, however:
This can only work if Stalin decides to push Communist propaganda for years before he starts the attack.

Granted about Yugoslavia, and maybe Bulgaria, but the rest of the countries that bordered the USSR felt far too much nationalistic antagonism to be swayed by Soviet propaganda.

As it concerns Yugoslavia, my expectation is that ITTL it gets carved up by an Italian-Hungarian-Bulgarian front before *WWII.

As I said before:
It depends on what state Germany is at this point.

If a nazi-less Germany is consumed by political instability and the Germans do not manage to get their act together to rebuild their economy and rearm themselves, they would be toast.
If they do manage to pull this off, then they stand a fair chance to stop the Soviets.

Conceded. But it is rather unlikely that Germany would reach the 1940s with the Versailles weakness and the early 1930s crisis still raging. It would have resolved, one way or another.

I am not certain if the Soviets would actually have to invade all of Eastern Europe before going for Germany and France. In OTL Germany managed to annex or vassalize a lot of its neighbouring countries. Without the German sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and with Soviet propaganda, the same could have been achieved by Stalin, before the war actually started.
The Republicans may have managed to win in Spain, without nazi-Germany supporting Franco's troops, thus providing a first taste of how "revolution" works.

Yep, but Nazi Germany was helped by the fact it had some rather good justification to its claims over Austria and parts of Czechoslovakia and Poland. Soviet justifications to grab old Tsarist territory were rather more flimsy, and the Western powers would be less tolerant of communist expansionism than of fascist one. I won't say that it would not happen, quite the contrary, very likely Stalin can manage to grab a couple of countries before a general war explodes, but no more. Surely he can geab the Baltics without a fight, and maybe Bessarabia, and then do the Winter War, or alternatively the Baltics, then attack Romania in the Balkan equivalent of the Winter War, then overrun Finland. But it is terribly unlikely the european powers would let him overrun the whole of Poland and Romania, or another country after Finland and the Baltics, without a declaration of war. And as I said, non of those countries were really liable to Communist penetration.

As it concerns Spain, a Soviet-backed Republican victory is quite possible (but Italy would still give a lot of help to Franco, and IOTL it made so rather more than Nazi Germany, so it is not granted), but an obvious Soviet major intervention in the SCW, much less a Red Spain, is exactly the change that would freak out Britain, France, and Italy into creating an anti-Soviet coaltion with Germany and the Eastern European countries immediately (and Spain would still be left into dire weakness by the SCW, powerless to help its Soviet sponsor much, and would be overrun as soon as the Allies could spare an army or two. In this condition, an Anglo-French support to Franco becomes quite possible.
 
As for the PoD, there may be several, even if you are right about the effects of simply killing Adolf in WWI. Putting a more sane right-wing regime in charge of Germany would be enough to fulfill the scenario, but since the OP postulated a democratic Germany,

Actually, all I wanted was a Hitler/Nazi-free Germany. A sane right-wing regime is perfectly fine.
 
Well, to be fair, if he had made the decision to declare war on the entirety of continental Europe, then I think the argument could be made that he was being an idiot.

I'd read the OP the same way. It's a Soviet-fanboy somewhere on the 'net who think that Soviet was so powerful it could take the whole Europe. I would guess he ment during the Cold War assuming that the US stay out and the French and Britts don't nuke Mother Russia. It's sort of makes sence.

But then the senario moves to 1941 where I think they lack the upper hand in any way (no huge population advantage, no huge GDP advantage and no huge military advantage). And to complicate things further, the Soviets can't play smart (play the ccountries against each other?).

So I'd say the Soviets get a good smackdown.

The idea basically comes from a YouTube video where this guy claims the USSR would have beaten all of Europe in a "clean" war (probably means conventional warfare).
 
I find the senario a bit unrealistic (beein polite) but it could lead to an interesting TL.

I postulate German and the Eastern European forces are enough to hold the Soviets back and perhaps even push deep into Soviet. Finland holding out long term beeing my main consern.

That leaves two great powers with little to do. The French bombing the oil fields is possible. But for the awsomness, have the Brittish sending their Indian forces to invade Sibiria and their Pakistanis to stir up trouble in just about anything else that end with 'stan.

Assuming that Soviet use of armour could be countered, in part by close support air power, the foothold could be used for long range bombing.

And then by a miracle, they take the whole Sibiria.

The war is still expensive and India gain independence while keeping Sibiria....
 
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