As if the 2200 AFVs sent to France wouldn't have impacted the Eastern Front in Summer 1944. Or the the distance from Galicia to Belarus wasn't a lot shorter than from Galica to France...or that having an additional reserve Panzer corps wouldn't have helped a lot during the battle of Minsk when all that the Germans had left to throw at the Soviets was a single Panzer division from AG-North. As it was transfers from the nearby army groups were what was used to confront Bagration after the initial breakthroughs.
12th Panzer Division, the first of those reinforcements did not begin detraining in AGC's rear area until June 28th (The Wehrmacht's Last Stand: The German Campaigns of 1944-45 Pg 198), the same day the remnant of the 9th army surrendered, and did not finish until June 29th, the day the last remnants of the 3rd Panzer who had not surrendered died in Vitebsk, and then spent the rest of the day marching to the front before they engaged the enemy. Due to lack of rolling stock and the destruction of railways by partisans, only a single division from Army Group North Ukraine was able to arrive before the battle of Minsk: all the others were unable to do so until well after Minsk had already fallen and the 4th Army had been destroyed. So the expectation that forces from France which are three times that distance and don't have the opportunity to use any railroads until they leave France (because the Allied air forces have already smashed France's rail infrastructure), would be able to show up. As it is, the proportion of AFV's sent from France will be able to partly make up for the summer losses during 1944 but the Germans will still end the summer much weaker then they were at the start.
And of course, not all of those AFVs will go East: some will be sent to Italy and some will be retained in the west to guard against further landings. Given precedent from previous years, about a quarter of AFV's would likely stay in France. Not sure how many will go to Italy... maybe just one. Oh, and subtract whatever losses the divisions suffered in fighting off the invasion, naturally.
Coming apart somewhat, but it was the campaign in Normandy that imploded them for good.
No, they had come apart and there is no "somewhat" in that statement. They were already imploded. They had been since March of 1944, when the WAllied had dealt the death blow with Big Week after the extensive campaign of attrition the previous years had weakened them to the breaking point. The destruction of German air defenses was the precondition for Normandy's success, not vice-versa. Any history of the Luftwaffe makes this entirely clear.
Frankly I don't see how they wouldn't be significantly more powerful absent the fighting in France and setting up of Allied based in Northwestern Europe. That doesn't mean they wouldn't have serious problems, just far less than they did IOTL in the second half of 1944.
Because you have no appreciation about the actual problems the Germans are laboring under, with or without the front in France. They might have less problems with retaining France, but they won't be "far less": their still being subjected to shattering bombing raids of at least the same intensity as those seen in March, if not heavier due to the loss of the Luftwaffe, their still running out of the key resources they need to keep up manufacturing, and their very machine tools are breaking down from overuse with no replacements available.
Respectfully disagree; I'll go back and check the dates and positions of forces in June 1944, but at very least II SS Panzer Corps is already nearby and wouldn't take more than a week to get into place, which is before the battle of Minsk started.
Even ignoring the issues where the Germans are getting the rail transport to move it: by the time the Battle of Minsk started, 3rd Panzer Army and 9th Army were already encircled and destroyed, essentially eradicating the flanks. II Panzer Corps mere 200 AFVs would join the 125 AFVs of the 5th Panzer Division (12th Panzer had by this time already been outflanked during it's separate fight trying to relieve Bobruisk and heavily shredded) to find itself facing the 1,810 tanks of the 3rd Belorussian Front closing in from the northeast and the ~1,500 AFVs of 1st Belorussian storming up from the southeast. The expectation that those kinds of odds could see any significant difference is pure, unadulterated delusion of the sort Hitler in 1945 regularly indulged in. Whatever tactical successes they manage would only end, as happened with the historical 5th Panzer, with them either forced to retreat or joining the earlier German forces in being cut-off and annihilated.
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