USSR occupies all of Germany

As if the 2200 AFVs sent to France wouldn't have impacted the Eastern Front in Summer 1944. Or the the distance from Galicia to Belarus wasn't a lot shorter than from Galica to France...or that having an additional reserve Panzer corps wouldn't have helped a lot during the battle of Minsk when all that the Germans had left to throw at the Soviets was a single Panzer division from AG-North. As it was transfers from the nearby army groups were what was used to confront Bagration after the initial breakthroughs.

12th Panzer Division, the first of those reinforcements did not begin detraining in AGC's rear area until June 28th (The Wehrmacht's Last Stand: The German Campaigns of 1944-45 Pg 198), the same day the remnant of the 9th army surrendered, and did not finish until June 29th, the day the last remnants of the 3rd Panzer who had not surrendered died in Vitebsk, and then spent the rest of the day marching to the front before they engaged the enemy. Due to lack of rolling stock and the destruction of railways by partisans, only a single division from Army Group North Ukraine was able to arrive before the battle of Minsk: all the others were unable to do so until well after Minsk had already fallen and the 4th Army had been destroyed. So the expectation that forces from France which are three times that distance and don't have the opportunity to use any railroads until they leave France (because the Allied air forces have already smashed France's rail infrastructure), would be able to show up. As it is, the proportion of AFV's sent from France will be able to partly make up for the summer losses during 1944 but the Germans will still end the summer much weaker then they were at the start.

And of course, not all of those AFVs will go East: some will be sent to Italy and some will be retained in the west to guard against further landings. Given precedent from previous years, about a quarter of AFV's would likely stay in France. Not sure how many will go to Italy... maybe just one. Oh, and subtract whatever losses the divisions suffered in fighting off the invasion, naturally.


Coming apart somewhat, but it was the campaign in Normandy that imploded them for good.

No, they had come apart and there is no "somewhat" in that statement. They were already imploded. They had been since March of 1944, when the WAllied had dealt the death blow with Big Week after the extensive campaign of attrition the previous years had weakened them to the breaking point. The destruction of German air defenses was the precondition for Normandy's success, not vice-versa. Any history of the Luftwaffe makes this entirely clear.

Frankly I don't see how they wouldn't be significantly more powerful absent the fighting in France and setting up of Allied based in Northwestern Europe. That doesn't mean they wouldn't have serious problems, just far less than they did IOTL in the second half of 1944.

Because you have no appreciation about the actual problems the Germans are laboring under, with or without the front in France. They might have less problems with retaining France, but they won't be "far less": their still being subjected to shattering bombing raids of at least the same intensity as those seen in March, if not heavier due to the loss of the Luftwaffe, their still running out of the key resources they need to keep up manufacturing, and their very machine tools are breaking down from overuse with no replacements available.
Respectfully disagree; I'll go back and check the dates and positions of forces in June 1944, but at very least II SS Panzer Corps is already nearby and wouldn't take more than a week to get into place, which is before the battle of Minsk started.

Even ignoring the issues where the Germans are getting the rail transport to move it: by the time the Battle of Minsk started, 3rd Panzer Army and 9th Army were already encircled and destroyed, essentially eradicating the flanks. II Panzer Corps mere 200 AFVs would join the 125 AFVs of the 5th Panzer Division (12th Panzer had by this time already been outflanked during it's separate fight trying to relieve Bobruisk and heavily shredded) to find itself facing the 1,810 tanks of the 3rd Belorussian Front closing in from the northeast and the ~1,500 AFVs of 1st Belorussian storming up from the southeast. The expectation that those kinds of odds could see any significant difference is pure, unadulterated delusion of the sort Hitler in 1945 regularly indulged in. Whatever tactical successes they manage would only end, as happened with the historical 5th Panzer, with them either forced to retreat or joining the earlier German forces in being cut-off and annihilated.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Even ignoring the issues where the Germans are getting the rail transport to move it: by the time the Battle of Minsk started, 3rd Panzer Army and 9th Army were already encircled and destroyed, essentially eradicating the flanks. II Panzer Corps mere 200 AFVs would join the 125 AFVs of the 5th Panzer Division to find itself facing the 1,810 tanks of the 3rd Belorussian Front closing in from the northeast and the ~1,500 AFVs of 1st Belorussian storming up from the southeast. The expectation that those kinds of odds could see any significant difference is pure, unadulterated delusion of the sort Hitler in 1945 regularly indulged in.
Will respond to the rest tomorrow, for now 5th Panzer division came from AG-South Ukraine:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Offensive#Wehrmacht
By 26 June, OKH had finally realised that the developing Operation Bagration was the main Soviet offensive, and that Minsk was its objective. As a result, the 5th Panzer Division was brought back from Army Group South Ukraine, arriving in Minsk on 27 June
II SS Panzer corps was in AG-North Ukraine and could have been on the scene even quicker:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_SS_Panzer_Division_Hohenstaufen#Formation_and_Eastern_Front
The II SS Panzer Corps was to act as reserve for Army Group North Ukraine.[13] After the Allied invasion of northern France on 6 June 1944, the II SS Panzer Corps, including Hohenstaufen, was sent west on 12 June, to defend Caen in Normandy.[6]

Also I have no idea why you think II SS PC had only 200 tanks total; 9th SS alone had 170 tanks in Normandy:
http://panzergrenadiers.com/unit-history/
By June 20th, the entire 9.SS-Panzer-Division was inland of the French border and moved to the south of Anuay-sur-Odan, to their staging area. At this point, the Division was composed roughly of 18,000 men, 170 tanks, 21 self-propelled guns, 287 armoured halftrack personnel carriers, 17 armoured cars, 18 armoured artillery pieces and 3,000 or so other miscellaneous vehicles.
The 10th SS Panzer division was light on equipment IOTL and didn't have their 2nd Panzer battalion yet, but still had about 70 AFVs, which puts the corps close to 300 AFVs (not counting artillery).
https://www.scribd.com/document/61162746/10th-SS-Panzer-Normandy

So the II SS Panzer Corps could be sent in addition, which would have made it stronger than the attack Soviet Tank Corps approaching Minsk; Soviet armor was chewed up during the breakthrough and tasked with other missions besides advancing on Minsk, including encircling the various armies of AG-Center. The initial Soviet breakthrough had encircled German corps at the front, but they were still fighting during Minsk. There were still also an additional 100,000 men encircled during Bagration as well, which if the armored spearheads are beaten around Minsk still have a chance to survive.

That is just the first wave of reinforcements. By late June divisions from the west could have already been moving East and either be in army group reserves or theater reserves ready to go already by the 26th of June if needed.
 
Will respond to the rest tomorrow, for now 5th Panzer division came from AG-South Ukraine:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Offensive#Wehrmacht

My post:

Due to lack of rolling stock and the destruction of railways by partisans, only a single division from Army Group North Ukraine was able to arrive before the battle of Minsk

Admittedly, that was edited in when I reviewed the literature and you may have missed it but the point stands.

II SS Panzer corps was in AG-North Ukraine and could have been on the scene even quicker:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_SS_Panzer_Division_Hohenstaufen#Formation_and_Eastern_Front

Not a supportable claim. 5th Panzer Division was located just west of Kovel and was the northernmost panzer formation in all of Army Group North Ukraine. II Panzer location further to the southwest in Galicia would have placed it further and hence result in it arriving later.

Also I have no idea why you think II SS PC had only 200 tanks total; 9th SS alone had 170 tanks in Normandy:
http://panzergrenadiers.com/unit-history/

I didn't see the StuGs and SPAAGs when I first glanced at the TO&E from my sources. That does indeed move up German strength to what you say, but this is still inadequate: German panzer forces in Army Group North Ukraine when L'vov-Sandomierz broke faced much better odds against roughly the same number of tanks under vastly more favorable circumstances (occupying intact defensive lines, supported by significant infantry formations, and with secure flanks) and they still were outmaneuvered, outflanked, and either forced to withdraw or were destroyed.

So the II SS Panzer Corps could be sent in addition, which would have made it stronger than the attack Soviet Tank Corps approaching Minsk; Soviet armor was chewed up during the breakthrough and tasked with other missions besides advancing on Minsk, including encircling the various armies of AG-Center. The initial Soviet breakthrough had encircled German corps at the front, but they were still fighting during Minsk.

As I already noted, resistance had in those pockets ceased by June 29th. Armored losses on the Soviets during the breakthrough phase were, contrary to your claim, rather light. This can be seen by the fact that as late as July 19th, the 1st Belorussian Front's AFV strength was 1,300 AFVs (excluding the addition of 2nd Tank Army, which only joined the front around that time). The rapid destruction of frontline formations meant that most armor was committed to driving deeper into Belarus. Those "other missions" involved by-passing and cutting off any German force capable of holding them up: II SS Panzer does not have the forces to adequately hold a front against a force with more armies then it has division, meaning that II SS Panzer would soon be threatened with getting cut-off and annihilated just as 5th Panzer Division historically was. By the time Minsk occurred, those encircled formations were dead as I had already shown.

There were still also an additional 100,000 men encircled during Bagration as well, which if the armored spearheads are beaten around Minsk still have a chance to survive.

Many of those men had already been rundown and overtaken by Soviet spearheads moving to the west of them. The same Soviet armored spearheads are far larger then that of the Germans and sweeping forward on a front far larger then a mere three panzer divisions could ever hope to hold. They will simply by-pass the locations where resistance is continuing and cut them off as they did OTL.

By late June divisions from the west could have already been moving East and either be in army group reserves or theater reserves ready to go already by the 26th of June if needed.

No they could not have. Scenarios which involve D-Day failing tend to either follow one of two formats.

1. Ike postpones it until the 18th and the invasion runs into the channel storm. While this would result in much fewer losses to the panzer divisions then in the second scenario, it would mean the failure of the invasion does not become clear to the Germans until the end of June (if then: they might dismiss it as a diversion) and the forces cannot be dispatched east.

2. The invasion is defeated by force-of-arms, with the Germans able to successfully identify and deploy their forces in the Normandy area prior to their landings. Unlikely, but it does mean that the invasion becomes a colossal meatgrinder. In the unlikely event that the Allies didn't notice that the Germans were reinforcing Normandy and proceeded with the landings as planned, it would be very bloody. Landings in Italy showed that it was very difficult to repel an invasion directly supported by naval gunfire and massed airpower. On the German side, Rommel felt the only way to defeat the Allies was to throw them back the moment they landed and prevent them gaining a lodgment. Together this would have been a recipe for a colossal meatgrinder, with massive losses on both sides. Basically something of a Mega-Anzio. The likelihood of the next key component is debatable: Eisenhower calls off the invasion when it seems stalled on the beaches. If he pressed the attack, it's still possible the Allies could have still ground the Germans down and eventually pushed inland, just through sheer superiority in forces, although the death toll would have been far higher than historical. Whether he would have done so is a matter of debate with arguments going either way. Assuming he does, however, not only would the Panzer Divisions be tied down in the Normandy region for an extensive amount of time while the fight goes on, probably for as long as in scenario 1, but would also take a significant degree of damage and be sent east in a already considerably worn and depleted state.

Interestingly, in the second scenario, the II SS Panzer Corps may get sent west (possibly pointlessly?) anyways which rather demolishes the whole idea of it being available. Or it may not. It's trickier to tell.

In any case, even if they were able to be sent east when you say they were your claims that they would have wound up in either AGC's reserve or the theater reserve (which basically mean strategic reserve... so in France) is in contrary to actual German thinking at the time. What they likely would have wound up is in the same position as II SS Panzer Corps: as part of Army Group North Ukraine, bolstering it's woefully inadequate panzer formations because that is where the Germans expect the attack to come.
 
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Would a possible POD be simply Stalin not falling asleep at the wheel just before Barbarossa? There was plenty of intelligence that the Germans were about to attack; had Stalin ordered the Red Army to take proper defensive countermeasures, might the 1941-42 offensives never have punched as deep into Russia as they did OTL, enabling alt-Bagration to reach western Germany by early '44? From there, especially given that there's no eastern defensive barrier to match the Rhine, it is not inconceivable that Germany is totally occupied by the Red Army even if D Day happens as OTL.

This is probably the most plausible and realistic PoD. The USSR lost so many people and resources during the initial stages of Barbarossa. If Stalin is convinced the USSR is going to attack and goes all out to prepare the defense, it's possible that the USSR is in much better shape to absorb the blow and counterattack more quickly. And once this happens, all of Germany is going to fall to Russians and maybe they even march into France as well.
 
Well, something also could go seriously wrong on the Eastern Front (for Germany and relative to OTL) for it to happen but that doesn't really alter your point.

Fair enough, I suppose I was operating on the assumption that any sort of German disaster of that magnitude couldn't be adequately exploited by the Soviets until such a time as the WAllies were also ready to do so. I suppose you could have a scenario where Barbarossa never happens, the Red Army is allowed to complete its expansion and refitting, and in 1945 athe flagging Nazi Empire is bulldozed in a Bagration-style offensive (might be an interesting one to write actually) but even then that world would face its own challenges and complications, especially if the WAllies haven't been publicly praising Stalin for the last four years and have borne the brunt of the fighting regardless of who landed the killer blow.
 
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1. Ike postpones it until the 18th and the invasion runs into the channel storm. While this would result in much fewer losses to the panzer divisions then in the second scenario, it would mean the failure of the invasion does not become clear to the Germans until the end of June (if then: they might dismiss it as a diversion) and the forces cannot be dispatched east.

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Hitler insists that it was an attempt to draw troops away from Calais and insists that the II Panzer sit in the Pas-de-Calais waiting for an attack that never comes for several months...

This is probably the most plausible and realistic PoD. The USSR lost so many people and resources during the initial stages of Barbarossa. If Stalin is convinced the USSR is going to attack and goes all out to prepare the defense, it's possible that the USSR is in much better shape to absorb the blow and counterattack more quickly. And once this happens, all of Germany is going to fall to Russians and maybe they even march into France as well.

Indeed. I doubt that the Soviets will be able to totally neutralize Barbarossa in its opening stages but with some quick thinking they can avoid a fairly high portion of the encirclements that they endured OTL. By Rasputitsa they will still be pushed back, but not nearly as much as they were historically--possibly managing to hold a defensive line centered on the Dnieper and Western Dvina? In 1942, they might even be able to take the offensive properly, and begin to push the Nazis back...it will be a long, slow slog, but the Nazis will still make the mistake of attacking when there's no chance of success and still refuse to pull out of encirclement, assuming Hitler is still Hitler. The BT-7s and KV-2s will likely come off with a much better reputation if they are actually used in their intended roles...
 
This is probably the most plausible and realistic PoD. The USSR lost so many people and resources during the initial stages of Barbarossa. If Stalin is convinced the USSR is going to attack and goes all out to prepare the defense, it's possible that the USSR is in much better shape to absorb the blow and counterattack more quickly. And once this happens, all of Germany is going to fall to Russians and maybe they even march into France as well.


This might've been possible even after the losses of '41. What if the Soviets were bolder in November '42? Instead of seeking to entrap just 6th Army, they tried to reach Rostov, trapping Army Group A as well as B. And to improve their chances, they used the troops wasted in Operation Mars in this effort. IIRC Manstein opposed a breakout attempt by 6th because it was tying down vast Soviet forces which would otherwise head for Rostov, and if it were taken, Manstein felt the war was lost. Surely loss of A too would've accelerated the waning of the reich afterwards.
 
This might've been possible even after the losses of '41. What if the Soviets were bolder in November '42? Instead of seeking to entrap just 6th Army, they tried to reach Rostov, trapping Army Group A as well as B. And to improve their chances, they used the troops wasted in Operation Mars in this effort. IIRC Manstein opposed a breakout attempt by 6th because it was tying down vast Soviet forces which would otherwise head for Rostov, and if it were taken, Manstein felt the war was lost. Surely loss of A too would've accelerated the waning of the reich afterwards.

After the underwhelming Moscow winter offensives of the previous year, I'm not sure that the Soviets would have attempted something so bold without the confidence of Stalingrad under their belts. That being said, it's certainly not impossible.
 
After the underwhelming Moscow winter offensives of the previous year, I'm not sure that the Soviets would have attempted something so bold without the confidence of Stalingrad under their belts. That being said, it's certainly not impossible.


Kharkov the previous spring ('42) must've made the Soviets too cautious for such an ambitious scheme. Still, Rostov must've been very tempting, and I think they could've done it with more troops, taken from the Mars operation.
 
I think there are a lot of plausible PoDs where all of Germany gets occupied by USSR. The question then is how does this effect the Cold War. Without Germany, the West is much weaker while the Russians are much stronger. It might be enough to tip the balance from where the West has an overwhelming advantage to a smaller one.

Perhaps France and Italy become destabilized even if the USSR doesn't occupy those countries.

With all of Germany as part of the Russian empire, it might make it harder for the USSR to fall as it is economically stronger.
 

Deleted member 1487

My post:
Admittedly, that was edited in when I reviewed the literature and you may have missed it but the point stands.
There doesn't seem to be any reference to where the claim that the rail infrastructure was so devastated as to prevent the transfer of more came from.

Also 12th Panzer came from AG North and 5th Panzer was already in Minsk on the 27th and entered combat on the 28th against the 5th Guards Tank Army, so the claims you're putting forth are already disproven (i.e. that the 12th Panzer was the first division on the scene and the only one that could be brought in).

Not a supportable claim. 5th Panzer Division was located just west of Kovel and was the northernmost panzer formation in all of Army Group North Ukraine. II Panzer location further to the southwest in Galicia would have placed it further and hence result in it arriving later.
Do you have some sort of map we can parse? In May the II SS PC was in Lwow, not far away from Kowel, and could have used multiple alternate routes so as not to jam up one line.

I didn't see the StuGs and SPAAGs when I first glanced at the TO&E from my sources. That does indeed move up German strength to what you say, but this is still inadequate: German panzer forces in Army Group North Ukraine when L'vov-Sandomierz broke faced much better odds against roughly the same number of tanks under vastly more favorable circumstances (occupying intact defensive lines, supported by significant infantry formations, and with secure flanks) and they still were outmaneuvered, outflanked, and either forced to withdraw or were destroyed.
Given that it more than doubles the strength of the 5th Panzer division, which IOTL alone bloodied 5th Guards Tank Army enough that Stalin removed it's commander and never gave him another field assignment again for the rest of the war, it is more likely than not that the Soviet armored pincer fails to close on Minsk, which gives a way out for the remaining nearby German forces. Of course the Germans will have to retreat out of the Belarussian mouse trap, but they will be much more intact than they were after, while the Soviet armored spearheads are out of commission for a while and east of their OTL positions.

As to the L-S offensive the Germans turned out much better from that offensive, suffering 1/3rd the losses and retreating pretty intact and in good order. Plus the Soviets suffered doubled the casualties of the Axis forces.

As I already noted, resistance had in those pockets ceased by June 29th. Armored losses on the Soviets during the breakthrough phase were, contrary to your claim, rather light. This can be seen by the fact that as late as July 19th, the 1st Belorussian Front's AFV strength was 1,300 AFVs (excluding the addition of 2nd Tank Army, which only joined the front around that time). The rapid destruction of frontline formations meant that most armor was committed to driving deeper into Belarus. Those "other missions" involved by-passing and cutting off any German force capable of holding them up: II SS Panzer does not have the forces to adequately hold a front against a force with more armies then it has division, meaning that II SS Panzer would soon be threatened with getting cut-off and annihilated just as 5th Panzer Division historically was. By the time Minsk occurred, those encircled formations were dead as I had already shown.
How many were operational? Strength only says what were assigned to it, not what is actually running. Nor does it say what units those were with; 5th Tank Army did not have 1000 AFVs either, which is the principle force that fought at Minsk in the period we are talking about.

Many of those men had already been rundown and overtaken by Soviet spearheads moving to the west of them. The same Soviet armored spearheads are far larger then that of the Germans and sweeping forward on a front far larger then a mere three panzer divisions could ever hope to hold. They will simply by-pass the locations where resistance is continuing and cut them off as they did OTL.


No they could not have. Scenarios which involve D-Day failing tend to either follow one of two formats.

1. Ike postpones it until the 18th and the invasion runs into the channel storm. While this would result in much fewer losses to the panzer divisions then in the second scenario, it would mean the failure of the invasion does not become clear to the Germans until the end of June (if then: they might dismiss it as a diversion) and the forces cannot be dispatched east.

2. The invasion is defeated by force-of-arms, with the Germans able to successfully identify and deploy their forces in the Normandy area prior to their landings. Unlikely, but it does mean that the invasion becomes a colossal meatgrinder. In the unlikely event that the Allies didn't notice that the Germans were reinforcing Normandy and proceeded with the landings as planned, it would be very bloody. Landings in Italy showed that it was very difficult to repel an invasion directly supported by naval gunfire and massed airpower. On the German side, Rommel felt the only way to defeat the Allies was to throw them back the moment they landed and prevent them gaining a lodgment. Together this would have been a recipe for a colossal meatgrinder, with massive losses on both sides. Basically something of a Mega-Anzio. The likelihood of the next key component is debatable: Eisenhower calls off the invasion when it seems stalled on the beaches. If he pressed the attack, it's still possible the Allies could have still ground the Germans down and eventually pushed inland, just through sheer superiority in forces, although the death toll would have been far higher than historical. Whether he would have done so is a matter of debate with arguments going either way. Assuming he does, however, not only would the Panzer Divisions be tied down in the Normandy region for an extensive amount of time while the fight goes on, probably for as long as in scenario 1, but would also take a significant degree of damage and be sent east in a already considerably worn and depleted state.

Interestingly, in the second scenario, the II SS Panzer Corps may get sent west (possibly pointlessly?) anyways which rather demolishes the whole idea of it being available. Or it may not. It's trickier to tell.

In any case, even if they were able to be sent east when you say they were your claims that they would have wound up in either AGC's reserve or the theater reserve (which basically mean strategic reserve... so in France) is in contrary to actual German thinking at the time. What they likely would have wound up is in the same position as II SS Panzer Corps: as part of Army Group North Ukraine, bolstering it's woefully inadequate panzer formations because that is where the Germans expect the attack to come.
 
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