On other side in 1938 Soviet manufactured app. 182K of trucks and 120k of tractors while Germany some 87k of trucks. OTL in 1941 Soviets had 270K of trucks. Germans employed some 0.6 million vehicles (vehicles, not trucks and it was including captured and from production in occupied territories). But I agree with you that they would be lucky if they reach Oder. With no damage to Soviet industry truck production can continue on levels similar to OTL 1939-1940.First: the Soviets don't have the ability to strike a mortal blow against Germany. Even later in the war, Soviet logistics had grave difficulty supporting an advance of more than 200 km. And that was after their motor transport had been enhanced with hundreds of thousands of Lend-Lease trucks. In 1939-1940, they would be lucky to reach the Oder.
There is also possibility to obtain trucks in US. Not through L-L but through direct purchases. Soviets had enough gold in their gold reserves to buy same amount of trucks they got through L-L and not even feeling it.
I am not so sure about Romania. Romania before fall of France was at least as much neutral as it could be though it was moving towards German sphere due to economic ties and being cut off. On other side they had some Entente guarantees, Entente was pre buying Romanian Oil and exports of Oil to Germany fall dramatically in late 1939 early 1940! In my opinion if Soviet restrain themselves from ultimatum to Romania regarding Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina, Romanians will sit quietly and watch.After much debate, Germany goes east in 1940, with Romania and Hungary as allies. A large force has to be left in the Saar to guard against Franco-British attack, but the east gets everything else. The renewed German offensive smashes up the Soviet front, and reaches Kiev, Smolensk, and Estonia by late August.
Hungary, here I am not so sure but Hungarians restrained themselves from going against Entente. Soviets is different story but even OTL in 1941 it took a while till they joined Barbarossa. Again if Soviets do not try to attack into Ruthenia Hungarians may be more inclined to watch Romania and Carpathian borders.
Slovakia as being German puppet may join or Soviets may decide to attack across Carpathians till Slovak mobilize and German reinforcement arrive. But due to mountainous terrain if Soviet managed to act quickly enough after breaking through Dukla pass eventually Slovakian other mountains will be frontlines for a long time. I would guess Soviets could make it to Presov or even Poprad area before German reinforcement stabilize frontlines. Slovak troops could be reluctant to fight Soviets initially and if played smartly (there were still Czech and Slovak soldiers, even if small number in Soviet union evacuated from Poland who could be used).
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