USSR invades Germany?

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Cantra, Apr 15, 2019 at 11:55 PM.

  1. Cantra Well-Known Member

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    What if the USSR started to invade Germany after Poland was split, to put a final closure on the very regime which sought to destroy communism? And thus, maybe even staring world war 2?
     
  2. Lalli Well-Known Member

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    That hardly is going end well to Red Army. It wasn't very well prepared to war. Soviets couldn't even defeat Finns during Winter War.
     
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  3. starman Well-Known Member

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    Shirer wrote that if Stalin had attacked Germany in June 1940, he probably could’ve gotten as far as Berlin before effective resistance was organized. I’d assume he would’ve brought Zhukov back west if he planned such an operation.
     
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  4. nbcman Donor

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    I believe General Zhukov was already there commanding the Kiev Military District starting in June 1940.
     
  5. Khanzeer Well-Known Member

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    Shirer should stick to writing fiction imho
     
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  6. skarosianlifeform Well-Known Member

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    The main advantage for Soviets, would be if they attack right during the German invasion of France and Low Countries.

    Soviet Union might be better off on the long run as
    1 ) Even if Soviets are badly prepared for war, and Germans fight well, the fight will still occur in Poland and Eastern Germany, rather than in Soviet Union proper. And Germans will still lose (quickly) as they'd have to fight a two-front war, under British naval blockade and without Soviets supplying them.
    2 ) The image of Soviet-led Communism might not be harmed too much by the M-R Pact, as Stalinists would argue "USSR only made a deal with the Reich to gain time, as it wasn't ready to fight the fascists in 1939 yet, but as soon as the Red Army was ready, Comrade Stalin fought the fascists".
     
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  7. Carl Schwamberger Well-Known Member

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    In September 1939? According to Merekov the Soviet Army had approximately sixty infantry divisions in the west & forty others of cavalry, motorized, ect... There were in theory a considerable pool of reservists, but the mobilization system Merekov describes was very awkward.
     
  8. thaddeus Well-Known Member

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    the better direction would have been the Romanian oilfields? however successful or far they advance the opportunity to damage the fields would be at hand?
     
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  9. Sam R. Well-Known Member

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    The Politburo and CC are likely to speak against prior to Stalin speaking last. That’s if Stalin even floats it after his candidate cc member stalking horse gets negatives.

    Even in Peak Stalinism the general opinion of the CC was sought and Stalin never took a motion he wouldn’t win.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2019 at 5:50 AM
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  10. David T Well-Known Member

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    Look at the ease with which they defeated mighty Finland! :p
     
  11. 33k7 Well-Known Member

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    has already fallen or not if not the British and France will not want the Soviets in Germany Stalin will become someone that you can't trust at all International if he declares war on Germany immediately after the conquest of Poland.


    and it's not like the British and French will help the Russians destroyed Germany in this scenario because they just went to war to protect Poland their word will be worth nothing if they decide to sell Poland to Russia in exchange for getting rid of Germany also with the fact that Stalin just backstab Germany right off the bat I don't see the French and British making a deal with them at all the only logical Choice here is for the Allies to declare war on the Soviet Union as well because it's going to become a threat to. this is a interesting scenario
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2019 at 11:44 PM
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  12. wiking Well-Known Member

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    Have you read about the problems they had invading Poland? Not to mention the infrastructure problems of East Poland that would make an invasion from the East into Central Europe effectively a non-starter. The Germans had to spend most of 1940-41 building up their part of Poland to enable Barbarossa and found that that still didn't fix the even worse problems of Russian occupied Poland, which they only started being able to address in 1942 and was a major bottleneck for their invasion that might have been the margin between defeat and victory in 1941. In 1939 or 1940 with how bad the USSR was doing it would have been a disaster. IIRC even Halder was hoping the Soviets would try and invade, as he was expecting it to turn into a super-Tannenberg; considering Soviet performance in general until much later with much more combat experience they'd probably give Halder the victory he was expecting.

    Meanwhile the Allies would be thrilled to sit back and watch the authoritarian regimes bleed each other white.
     
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  13. Carl Schwamberger Well-Known Member

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    Re: 1940

    The only two things I can see in favor of the USSR would be the small German army, and Hitlers erratic judgement. The armored group breakout in May sent him into a ongoing panic. Just the fact the Soviet ground forces are scattering artillery fire across Poland, and their air force pilots are lost over East Prussia is liable to send the Chancellor into new heights of fear.

    All the sources I've seen credit the Wehrmacht with 20 infantry & one cavalry division in the east, about 200 aircraft, and some service units that doubled as static garrisons. Not much to cover Prussia and Poland.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2019 at 10:24 AM
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  14. Cryhavoc101 Well-Known Member

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    While in no way am I attempting to hand waive the problems of the Red Army during this time - deciding where and when you are going to attack gives the 'attacker' a number of advantages

    • The attacking formations are ready for war - their various echelons are at or as near to possible full TO&E with logi as prepared as it can be
    • The attacking formations know where they are attacking and can concentrate their combat power at this point
    • The enemy on the other hand unless they are forewarned are going to be at a disadvantage as they have not concentrated at the point of the main thrusts and might be in 'Garrison' status or at full / near TO&E
    Now I would fully expect the German army in the East to be a paranoid creature expecting this sort of thing and to be ready to fall back and destroy Bridges etc to buy time - but as Carl says what impact would this have on Hitler and his Elite?

    It might result in France not falling and the BEF and Elements of First French Army not retreating to Dunkirk as operations are called off and German Units and JGs pulled off the line and rushed to the East - disrupting not just the Battle of France but likely Robbing those forces of their Rail head Logistics

    Who knows - Hitler and his ilk might all suddenly suffer 9mm Brain Aneurysms

    One can only hope
     
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  15. Zincwarrior Well-Known Member

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    Frankly, if the USSR invades Eastern Germany after Germany invades France, how is this worse for the USSR then what actually happened? Morally they can invade because they know if they don't the Germans will invade them, just like WWI, and they have the cause to "get on with it" to avoid what happened before. The French and British would welcome the ally. if they strike into Romania (as noted above) how long before Germany runs out of oil?
     
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  16. Blobfish Shoom

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    While the Red Army at this time was certainly rough around the edges, and any major gain would come with horrific casualties, keep in mind that the Wehrmacht is significantly weaker compared to June, 1941. They have less troops, less advanced equipment, and practically no allies(though I’m sure some nations would be quick to join their side if Stalin invaded). France and Britain are basically safe from invasion now that Germany is distracted, but I doubt they’ll actually declare war on the Soviet Union. Rather they would more likely just watch the two drain each other in a fight that the Soviets would probably win in the long run.
     
  17. wiking Well-Known Member

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    So is the USSR. Considerably so. They had a major expansion between 1940-41 that gave them the numbers they had in June 1941 as well as equipment modernization. There was no KV-1 or T-34 yet. The radio shortage was even worse than in 1941. The PAK36 was in fact able to deal with ever tank in the Soviet arsenal in 1939-40. The aircraft, especially fighters, were grossly inferior even to the Bf109E.

    If we were talking about a German invasion of the USSR in 1940 due to the issues you mention the German military having they'd certainly not do as well as they did in 1941, but this is the inverse, the USSR is in an even worse position than when defending in 1941 and have to attack with their problematic force.
     
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  18. Carl Schwamberger Well-Known Member

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    Re: Autum 1939

    Here the Germans only disadvantage is if there is surprise. From mid September the Wehrmacht was starting redeployment to the west, & was moving fast to accommodate a initial date for a western offensive of late October. If a Soviet surprise attack then of course this redeployment is halted and a new redeployment plan initiated. From the German PoV a full reversal is not practical. A companion offensive buy the French must be allowed for, so defenses in the west would have to be reinforced & some formations from the east need to still be sent. Gamelin is still the French generalissimo, so a serious effort at a ground or air offensive is low probability, tho some token efforts would be made.

    I have played out this general scenario on the game board several times. While the German player has some strong advantages on turn one he still has to be careful to not over reach. Risks need to be carefully considered & a eye on the longer term strategic gain kept steady. As in OTL a series of tactical and operational victories without decisive strategic gain are war losers for the German play on the game board.
     
  19. Cantra Well-Known Member

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    Maybe not in September of 1939, but before Germany invades the Soviet Union. With the Soviet's massive manpower, I could easily see them destroying Nazi Germany eventually while the Allies just sit back and laugh and let the 2 regimes destroy each other.
     
  20. wiking Well-Known Member

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    I doubt the Allies want to see the USSR dominating Central Europe even if temporarily. The Western European governments of 1939-40 thought very differently about that than FDR did in 1944-45 especially without France ever being invaded by Germany ITTL.
     
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