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All,

What if USSR had to fight a two-front war in 1939/40/41?

Background:
The Kwantung army clashes with USSR around the Khalkin Gol area (as happened).

They get a bloody nose, but now "national honour" comes into play and Japan really gets into the act. Not just the Kwantung army but this is now impacting any other consideration.

Let us escalate it into a really heavy war zone where both are using up man power and equipment at a horrible rate.

Will Finland still happen in this scenario?

There is now no RM pact. Poland gets occupied, and USSR is not able to do much about it.

Will Hitler turn on USSR in 1940 and leave France alone?

Let us imagine Hitler knocks out France in 1939. The BEF is not in place anyway. Britain is isolated.

How can this develop:

1) Hitler invades USSR in May 1940.
Stalin is a bit busy with Japan
Finland has happened and has sucked resources
Germany captures Leningrad in 1940

2) Japan has no resources for PH
Japan is slowly running out of resources as oil and so on cannot be found in Mongolia
The Chinese war slows down as the Kwnatung army is now fighting in Mongolia and not in China proper.
US sees no reason to embark on sanctions
US oil export is not affected

Which one of the WI's is most appealing?

Ivan
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