Well, see, that's where I am heading:
To create a scenario where USSR will have to send additional troops to Far East and thereby entice Germany into an attack, either earlier or at the time of OTL.
I am counting on a scenario where Japan, due to honour or face, have determined to win round 2; hence they are a real threat in Far East.
It is a scenario without any real strategic consideration. More one of these where it just gets out of hand and starts to have a life of its own.
Look at Vietnam as an example: who would have thought (in 1963) that it would end up with 50,000+ dead and 250,000 in-theatre forces?
Can such a scenario be a possibility? I think it could, but it might require a lot of "small decisions ending up in major commitments". However, that is quite often how it is in real life, anyway.
The other factor is the Finnish war: with serious losses in both men and materiel, USSR is getting stretched.
NOW we can let Barbarossa get off the gorund in 1939/40/41 and voila, USSR is sitting with a 2-front war.
WI if this happens?
Stalin?
Purges in the military is biting?
No embargo of Japan?
No PH?
German "victory"?
No lend-lease?
and so on.
Ivan