USSR Goes Big In Angola Instead Of Afghanistan

[TRoehl]

What if the Soviet leadership thinks it through; decides that Afghanistan is a ticket to nowhere good, merely sends some advisers and air support to Kabul.

At the same time, they see a chance to gain a strategic foothold in Southern Africa, with access to warm water ports and a corner on several strategic minerals. Furthermore, the propaganda value of taking on apartheid South Africa is priceless for them.

By big in Angola, we're still talking about a much smaller commitment than Afghanistan; call it a VDV airborne division supplemented by an East German motor rifle brigade and a battalion of naval infantry, plus some specialized support units and special forces detachments. Combine that with what the Cubans are sending already, and UNITA and the SADF are going to have their hands full very quickly.

My guess is that this triggers much larger support from the US than in OTL, routed through Israel and Taiwan-perhaps sending the IAFs older French Mirages to South Africa in exchange for more modern F-16s. They'll also likely want (and get) modern antitank and antiaircraft weapons. At what point does the US break down and start shipping stuff directly traceable (think Stingers).

Thoughts

 

[Ziomatrix]

It Still Would be a Blunder

If the Soviets decided to time it around the same time they would have started supporting the Afghan Communist Regime OTL while world recognition against South African apartheid is relatively infant I largely concur with your assessment. The US and NATO members would have to violate a UN Resolution to get arms shipped directly. However, I think logistic wise besides Israel Venezuela would be more ideal for supply SA. It could also have the added benefit of a prolonged silence outcries against SA's domestic and foreign policy.

However, if the timetables were moved even a decade later the US and NATO response would probably be greatly diminished coinciding with the rise of apartheid awareness. I can imagine however some US House Rep. pull something somewhat similar Charlie Wilson resulting in clandestine support of UNITA entirely separate from SA's. This would result in a prolonged Angolan civil war that could result in another DROC like situation in Africa.

Either situation can result in speeding up widespread resentment towards their regimes among citizens of Warsaw pact nations when seeing their young men being sent to a far flung theatre that in no way positively affects them. This is probably one of the main motivation of the Soviet regime OTL avoiding such involvement in the Afghan war.