USSR Falls: Anglo-American Invasion of Caucasus?

[Polish Eagle]

In some scenario where the USSR collapses in 1941 or 1942 (as in Anglo/American-Nazi War, and similar premises), is there any chance that the Caucasus could develop into a major theater of operations, with Allied troops pressing northward to, first, deny the Nazis access to Baku's oil, and second, to reopen the Eastern Front?

The Allies already maintained a lend-lease route to the USSR through Persia--could this be expanded to support an American or British army operating along the Caspian coast?

How would this impact Turkey's relations with either side?

If the invasion is successful in repelling the Nazis from the oil-rich parts of the southern USSR, could it be expanded into a general offensive into Ukraine?

 

[Witch0Winter]

I suppose the first question to ask would be what do you mean by USSR collapse? If it just means that Moscow and Leningrad are captured in late 1941 or sometime in 1942, then there seems to be no reason the USSR wouldn't keep fighting, especially with the industrial areas of the lower Volga still active and safe. Though in that scenario the USSR I could see requesting much more aid for obvious reasons.

If we are talking total governmental collapse for various reasons (killed by Germans, infighting, despair, bad chili, etc.) then I suspect that, yes, there would be an attempt to secure the Baku oil fields by the British and possibly Americans as well, in addition to continuing to supply whatever remnant there is in Siberia and Central Asia since there's not really a scenario where the Germans could extend their reach that far.

 

[Polish Eagle]

I am referring to a total collapse of the Soviet government and an occupation of the USSR at least as far as the Volga (or even the Urals).

 

[trurle]

The modern road distance from Sanadaj (the forward British base in Iran captured in September 1941) to Baku is 919km. Although technically doable, this mountainous supply route at the end of the already stretched supply chain would be subject to heavy German air raids. I.m.h.o., without heavy infrastructure build-up (redundant rails, roads, AA guns and airfields) the operation would be considered too risky. Also, to solidify the British positions in Iran, a lot of garrisoning would be necessary, likely pushing the start of any major operations to the summer of 1943 (in the expense of landings in Italy) or even to 1944 (if Italian operations would not be weakened).

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

The modern road distance from Sanadaj (the forward British base in Iran captured in September 1941) to Baku is 919km. Although technically doable, this mountainous supply route at the end of the already stretched supply chain would be subject to heavy German air raids.

From where? The furthest the Germans got in OTL was Grozny, 500 km from Baku. Army Group literally ran out of gas there.

The Trans-Caucasus would be at the extreme end of both sides' supply lines. It would take a major effort by the Germans to deploy strong forces there. And they can only do it after the collapse or capitulation of the Soviet central government.

Yes, the Allies would be weak too; but they would start with control of the area.

One question is: What happens with the Soviet forces in Iran and Azerbaijan? My thought is that the Soviet collapse would happen before the Germans could get to the Caucasus, so these forces would be intact. Would they just give up and be repatriated, like the French in 1940, or become the Free Russian Army under Allied sponsorship?

My conclusion is that the Allies would move in with the cooperation of the Soviet forces there. By the time the Germans arrived from the north, the Allies would have solid blocking positions established along the Caucasus and at the Caspian Gates north of Baku. The Germans' best approach might be to push through the western Caucasus, then along the Black Sea coast, and east through Georgia, drawing supply by water (across the Black Sea). The only really difficult terrain is in would be in central Georgia, probably too far for the Allies to hold.

But the Allies would definitely make the effort - they would consider the oil of Baku way too valuable to the Axis to give it up without a fight.

 

[trurle]

From where? The furthest the Germans got in OTL was Grozny, 500 km from Baku. Army Group literally ran out of gas there.

The Trans-Caucasus would be at the extreme end of both sides' supply lines. It would take a major effort by the Germans to deploy strong forces there. And they can only do it after the collapse or capitulation of the Soviet central government.

Yes, the Allies would be weak too; but they would start with control of the area.

One question is: What happens with the Soviet forces in Iran and Azerbaijan? My thought is that the Soviet collapse would happen before the Germans could get to the Caucasus, so these forces would be intact. Would they just give up and be repatriated, like the French in 1940, or become the Free Russian Army under Allied sponsorship?

My conclusion is that the Allies would move in with the cooperation of the Soviet forces there. By the time the Germans arrived from the north, the Allies would have solid blocking positions established along the Caucasus and at the Caspian Gates north of Baku. The Germans' best approach might be to push through the western Caucasus, then along the Black Sea coast, and east through Georgia, drawing supply by water (across the Black Sea). The only really difficult terrain is in would be in central Georgia, probably too far for the Allies to hold.

But the Allies would definitely make the effort - they would consider the oil of Baku way too valuable to the Axis to give it up without a fight.

Your point is partially correct. Both sides in Baku will have supply problems. The difference is what Germans have mostly a steppe with developed rail and road network at their back, plus they are sitting right on oil wells. British on the other hand would have to ferry oil from Iraq 2000 km away, through single, low-speed railroad in mountainous terrain. This a a recipe for British to have a reverse version of the Battle of Imphal. As about British starting from the control of Baku after Soviet Union collapse, it is highly improbable.

Soviet Union leaders, officers and general populace deeply distrusted Allies. SU can withdraw occupation forces from Iran if situation on Caucasus would become dire, right. But chances for British coming to Azerbaijan without confronting Red Army (or its remnants) are nil. The memories of Entente intervention in the Russian Civil War were too fresh. The most possible is the formation of the "Free Russian Army" modelled after "Free French Army", but much less controllable because of the distrust i mentioned earlier. In particular, that army would definitely refuse to take any assignments outside Soviet Union, and would not allow any Allied troops to enter former Soviet Union territories.

More plausible scenario, in my opinion, is the more spectacular failure of Soviet Army in summer 1942 German offensive. IOTL, Germans advance failed while within artillery range of the westernmost oil wells. Only minor alteration would be needed to tip over the balance, like working German-Chechen alliance. I can imagine some local German army commander acting independently from Berlin and promising the Chechens what they wanted. See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1940–44_insurgency_in_Chechnya

Of course, Baku, given its location, forces deployed (including one of the only three Soviet "Air Defense Armies") and importance to Soviets, would be sieged for long rather than taken by assault. As realistic British involvement, i can image British seaplanes and transport ships bringing food and armaments to blockaded Baku from Iran, while Soviet oil tankers still trying to deliver oil out of city despite German artillery barrages and airstrikes.

P.S. Your main misconception is the too narrow definition of "Baku oil". Baku was the heart and transport hub of oil-bearing region, but the wells of the region were scattered several hundreds kilometers around.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Your point is partially correct. Both sides in Baku will have supply problems.

The Germans have supply problems before they ever get near Baku.

The difference is what Germans have mostly a steppe with developed rail and road network at their back, plus they are sitting right on oil wells.

There are no oil wells in the east Ukraine/lower Volga region. And if there were, it wouldn't do the Germans any good for a long time. Here's the clue: oil wells don't gush motor fuel. Gasoline (or diesel) has to be refined from crude oil. That requires the right industrial facilities (in good working order). Iran (right now) doesn't have the necessary plant and has to import gasoline.

There are oil wells in the Cis-Caucasus (at Maikop and Grozny), which would fall to the Germans, but would the Germans capture any functioning oil wells? The Soviets would probably wreck them. The Germans could eventually get them producing again, but only after a lot of work requiring equipment hauled all the way from Germany.

British on the other hand would have to ferry oil

gasoline

from Iraq 2000 km away

2,000 km away is Egypt and British India. Iran, where the Allies have massive supply operations, is 400 km from Baku.

As about British starting from the control of Baku after Soviet Union collapse, it is highly improbable.

Soviet Union leaders, officers and general populace deeply distrusted Allies. SU can withdraw occupation forces from Iran if situation on Caucasus would become dire, right. But chances for British coming to Azerbaijan without confronting Red Army (or its remnants) are nil. The memories of Entente intervention in the Russian Civil War were too fresh. The most possible is the formation of the "Free Russian Army" modelled after "Free French Army", but much less controllable because of the distrust i mentioned earlier. In particular, that army would definitely refuse to take any assignments outside Soviet Union, and would not allow any Allied troops to enter former Soviet Union territories.

The premise of the thread is "USSR falls". Stalin is probably dead or in prison, and very probably whatever Vichyoid rump government that is left in unoccupied Russia and has capitulated to Germany has repudiated Communism.

German troops (the enemy) are advancing on the Caucasus from the NW. Are the ex-Soviet forces going to fight their Allies, right up to when the Germans shoot them in the back? I don't think so.

IOTL, Germans advance failed while within artillery range of the westernmost oil wells.

The Germans captured the westernmost oil field at Maikop in August 1942, and held it till January 1943. During the intervening months, the Germans tried to get some of the wells back into production, and failed almost completely. They obtained only a few thousand barrels.

P.S. Your main misconception is the too narrow definition of "Baku oil". Baku was the heart and transport hub of oil-bearing region, but the wells of the region were scattered several hundreds kilometers around.

There is a field at Maikop (800 km WNW of Baku), and a field at Grozny (500 km NW), but nearly all the other fields are in the immediate vicinity of Baku or in the Azerbaijan plain to the SW, within 150 km.

 

[Incognitia]

The troops already forward deployed to Iran and Iraq might push into the Caucasus. Might. I think it's more likely that they would assert control of the formerly-Soviet-occupied portions of Persia and establish blocking positions there (this is what e.g. Bill Slim spent his time doing at the time, commanding a good motorised division of the Indian Army).
They will be expected to hold against anything the Germans can push across the Caucasus, but I don't think Allied commanders will expect them to push back and take Baku; as much as denying motor fuel to the Germans is desirable, it's a long reach - and they seem to have enough to function anyway, what with being able to outfight the entire Soviet Union while maintaining u-boat warfare and an air campaign.