Eh, a Russo-Japanese war redux is rather likely, I would imagine, and that means Japan's not going to just die from finances. Though I can't imagine the British, French, or Americans actually helping the Soviets bash anyone if it doesn't directly involve their self-interests. Sure, condemnation, but the Western Europeans were content with the idea of having Hitler and Stalin murder each other rather than go after the crazies themselves. Probably would just end up with Japan getting overrun and the western democracies being somewhat concerned at the fact that the Soviets are probably going to gobble up vast resource rich regions of Asia and have a communist buddy in China and so moving to limit Soviet gains where they can.Japan...probably economic collapse at some point from a mixture of sanctions related to what they're doing in China (while no annexation of French Indochina butterflies these for a while but eventually Congress will hit them on humanitarian grounds) and the actual cost of prosecuting all their wars. Given how insane they were what they decide to do after that is anyone's guess. If they go to war a few years later on they get thrashed so mercilessly that Saddam Hussein circa 1992 would wince.
The PoDs are no MR Pact, the Soviets don't agree to it, and the USSR declares war on Germany when the UK and France do, September 3rd 1939. This assumes Hitler still invades Poland of course.
How does the war ITTL play out after this?
The PoDs are no MR Pact, the Soviets don't agree to it, and the USSR declares war on Germany when the UK and France do, September 3rd 1939. This assumes Hitler still invades Poland of course.
How does the war ITTL play out after this?
Ironically this might be the one thing that could persuade France to show some aggression. With Germany occupied dealing with the Red Army the major priority would be to quickly take and hold as much German territory as possible to keep Communism away from France's borders.
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In September 1939 USSR did not have a common border with Germany. The unwillingness of Poland to let Soviet forces on its territory was a factor in failure of UK-France/USSR agreement in 1939 and earlier OTL. So, USSR still may declare war but how much it could reasonably do until Poland is overrun? If USSR moves there before situations goes hopeless, Allies may begin to view it as a covert aggression and any goodwill produced by original declaration on Germany may evaporate very quickly.
Still, it may indeed push France/UK to act more agressivly on Western front and maybe even defeat Germany while Soviets boggle down in Poland/Slovakia. It is worth remaining that Red Army of 1939 was a mess as Winter War proved.
The PoDs are no MR Pact, the Soviets don't agree to it, and the USSR declares war on Germany when the UK and France do, September 3rd 1939. This assumes Hitler still invades Poland of course.
How does the war ITTL play out after this?
Sticking with the OP...
The mobilization schedule, and state of training of the French second and third echelon reservists, the Series A & B formations, meant a larger offensive could not be mounted until late September or very early October. Beyond that hardly 40 divisions would be combat ready for it, mostly from the 'Active' Series pool. The Series A units would be assembled, but their combat ability at that point would be questionable. Sometime in late October or November all the Series A & B reserve formations in Metropolitan France would be mobilized, and some of the first echelon units from Africa would have arrive. But, its unlikely France could have mustered 60 offense worth divisions before new years. To fund rearmament particularly the new air force the training budget for the ground force had been drastically reduced in the 1930s By 1938 the French reservist was receiving perhaps half the training of a German conscript, ditto for the critical HQ staff of the battalions & divisions. With only a single armored division combat ready in 1939, and a half trained army the French would be confined to carefully planned methodical attacks designed to bite off and hold a few kilometers at a time.
The western Germany was so badly garrisoned though IIRC that they wouldn't need their full strength.
In September 1939 USSR did not have a common border with Germany. The unwillingness of Poland to let Soviet forces on its territory was a factor in failure of UK-France/USSR agreement in 1939 and earlier OTL. So, USSR still may declare war but how much it could reasonably do until Poland is overrun?
Just theoretically Soviets may in order to fulfill Polish wish prepare on their side of border and wait till Polans is defeated. When German in range VSS may try what they can do and eventually Soviet army may counterattack. Whatever result will be. Everything in order. Soviets didn't technically enter Poland till Polish defense totally collaps.You raise an excellent point, the Polish refusal to entertain the idea of Soviet troops being stationed in Polish territory, it wasn’t the main problem but it was a major one. However Poland was effectively defeated by the time the Soviet’s marched in, and there are accounts of some Polish officers believing that the Soviet’s were coming to their aid.
If the Soviet’s do intervene on a similar timescale, the Polish government might object but there isn’t much they can do.
Yes, the Germans would be able to defeat any Soviet offensive in Poland, but that doesn't meant Stalin will surrender. Would they strip the Eastern front of enough soldiers to be able to take on France?3. USSR invasion crushed by Germans -- the USSR does not have the ability to operate on offensive operations and basically lose their initial armies
4. With USSR defeated Germany armies flip to the west and does 1940 happen again, (west still fighting 1918 so with the Blitzkrieg happen?, Actually the reverse of the Shlieff. plan. would have to happen, i think they would beat the Russian invasion, the issue is can they beat France before the USSR can regroup.
Why do we assume that the germans would be able to defeat the soviet offensive? Sure, the winter war preformance was surly lacking, but the flat ground of eastren Poland is not the frozen terrain and narrow fronts of eastren Finland. The Nazis will be able to blant the Soviets for sure, no easy drive to Berlin over here, but the soviets will surly drive the Nazis day by day to the Oder. The German Army will lock Hitler a long time before it happans, but still.
The German army lost huge amounts of ammunitions and matirals in the Battle for Poland, and will lose to the more numeros and better equiped Soviets.
Well offcourse, the Soviet army won't reach the Rhine, or even Berlin, I see the final peace treaty as setting the border of (now preety much a soviet puppet) Poland on the Oder, and East Prussia to the Soviets. The Baltic Nations will fall under Moscow's thumb, but might avoid direct annexation. The gratefull Poland offcource will corect her eastern border much in favor of the Soviet Union, and will chose (from her own free will!) a very soviet-freindly govorment, if not go outright communist.... and then the German army goes to France and G.B for term, who have no desire to see the Red Army on the Rhine. If the Soviets refuse to go along, suddenly they have a united European front set up against them, to say nothing of what Japan might do given the circumstances. Proving Hitler's fear that Communism was going to overwhelm Europe correct isen't exactly going to completely destroy Facism's reputation, particularly since in such a timeline Mussolini hasen't swung in like a jackal yet and could play the role of intermediary