USSR declares war on Germany along with UK and France

The PoDs are no MR Pact, the Soviets don't agree to it, and the USSR declares war on Germany when the UK and France do, September 3rd 1939. This assumes Hitler still invades Poland of course.

How does the war ITTL play out after this?
 
Ironically this might be the one thing that could persuade France to show some aggression. With Germany occupied dealing with the Red Army the major priority would be to quickly take and hold as much German territory as possible to keep Communism away from France's borders. Hitler goes down in history as an idiot on par with Shah Muhammad II of Khwarezm and Francisco Solano Lopez. My guess is that he gets tossed in a coup by the OKW who realize they're screwed and move all their forces to try and keep as much land as possible out of Soviet hands while accepting that since somebody is going to take Berlin it might as well be Britain and France.

Italy and Japan do not become involved in WWII. Mussolini will probably live until some time in the 1950s. What happens after he dies is anyone's guess. Italy may well hold Libya to this day ITTL.

Japan...probably economic collapse at some point from a mixture of sanctions related to what they're doing in China (while no annexation of French Indochina butterflies these for a while but eventually Congress will hit them on humanitarian grounds) and the actual cost of prosecuting all their wars. Given how insane they were what they decide to do after that is anyone's guess. If they go to war a few years later on they get thrashed so mercilessly that Saddam Hussein circa 1992 would wince.
 
Japan...probably economic collapse at some point from a mixture of sanctions related to what they're doing in China (while no annexation of French Indochina butterflies these for a while but eventually Congress will hit them on humanitarian grounds) and the actual cost of prosecuting all their wars. Given how insane they were what they decide to do after that is anyone's guess. If they go to war a few years later on they get thrashed so mercilessly that Saddam Hussein circa 1992 would wince.
Eh, a Russo-Japanese war redux is rather likely, I would imagine, and that means Japan's not going to just die from finances. Though I can't imagine the British, French, or Americans actually helping the Soviets bash anyone if it doesn't directly involve their self-interests. Sure, condemnation, but the Western Europeans were content with the idea of having Hitler and Stalin murder each other rather than go after the crazies themselves. Probably would just end up with Japan getting overrun and the western democracies being somewhat concerned at the fact that the Soviets are probably going to gobble up vast resource rich regions of Asia and have a communist buddy in China and so moving to limit Soviet gains where they can.
 
In September 1939 USSR did not have a common border with Germany. The unwillingness of Poland to let Soviet forces on its territory was a factor in failure of UK-France/USSR agreement in 1939 and earlier OTL. So, USSR still may declare war but how much it could reasonably do until Poland is overrun? If USSR moves there before situations goes hopeless, Allies may begin to view it as a covert aggression and any goodwill produced by original declaration on Germany may evaporate very quickly.
Still, it may indeed push France/UK to act more agressivly on Western front and maybe even defeat Germany while Soviets boggle down in Poland/Slovakia. It is worth remaining that Red Army of 1939 was a mess as Winter War proved.
 
The PoDs are no MR Pact, the Soviets don't agree to it, and the USSR declares war on Germany when the UK and France do, September 3rd 1939. This assumes Hitler still invades Poland of course.

How does the war ITTL play out after this?

The MR pact was almost unavoidable by 1939.

The right POD for this grand alliance against nazi Germany was the Munich crisis. The UK and France letting Czechoslovakia down was what convinced Stalin that he needed a pact with Germany to turn the german westward and gain time.

And we now know what would have happened if the UK and France had stood firm in september 1938 : there would have been a military coup in Germany against Hitler : the army just waited for a refusal of the western powers to overthrow Hitler.
 
The PoDs are no MR Pact, the Soviets don't agree to it, and the USSR declares war on Germany when the UK and France do, September 3rd 1939. This assumes Hitler still invades Poland of course.

How does the war ITTL play out after this?

Without the MR pact, Hitler may not even invade Poland in 1939. He may instead invade France earlier.

fasquardon
 
Sticking with the OP...

Ironically this might be the one thing that could persuade France to show some aggression. With Germany occupied dealing with the Red Army the major priority would be to quickly take and hold as much German territory as possible to keep Communism away from France's borders.

...

The mobilization schedule, and state of training of the French second and third echelon reservists, the Series A & B formations, meant a larger offensive could not be mounted until late September or very early October. Beyond that hardly 40 divisions would be combat ready for it, mostly from the 'Active' Series pool. The Series A units would be assembled, but their combat ability at that point would be questionable. Sometime in late October or November all the Series A & B reserve formations in Metropolitan France would be mobilized, and some of the first echelon units from Africa would have arrive. But, its unlikely France could have mustered 60 offense worth divisions before new years. To fund rearmament particularly the new air force the training budget for the ground force had been drastically reduced in the 1930s By 1938 the French reservist was receiving perhaps half the training of a German conscript, ditto for the critical HQ staff of the battalions & divisions. With only a single armored division combat ready in 1939, and a half trained army the French would be confined to carefully planned methodical attacks designed to bite off and hold a few kilometers at a time.

In September 1939 USSR did not have a common border with Germany. The unwillingness of Poland to let Soviet forces on its territory was a factor in failure of UK-France/USSR agreement in 1939 and earlier OTL. So, USSR still may declare war but how much it could reasonably do until Poland is overrun? If USSR moves there before situations goes hopeless, Allies may begin to view it as a covert aggression and any goodwill produced by original declaration on Germany may evaporate very quickly.
Still, it may indeed push France/UK to act more agressivly on Western front and maybe even defeat Germany while Soviets boggle down in Poland/Slovakia. It is worth remaining that Red Army of 1939 was a mess as Winter War proved.

They could plan on attacking East Prussia through near defenseless Lithuania. Better to ask forgiveness that permission after all. However once the Polish army collapses in mid September they won't have any effective way to refuse the Red Army. The Politburo back in Moscow is not going to let a line of border guards stall the Red Army. Poland would revert to its traditional 18th and 19th Century role as a battleground for the other European nations.

i have gamed this situation a few times. Initially the German player has a seeming advantage, but as winter develops a careless or over confident player can shoot himself in the metaphorical foot. The German player needs to play with care in the opening turns if he expects to still be on the board by 1941.
 
The PoDs are no MR Pact, the Soviets don't agree to it, and the USSR declares war on Germany when the UK and France do, September 3rd 1939. This assumes Hitler still invades Poland of course.

How does the war ITTL play out after this?

Germany is defeated. Even assuming somehow the Germans manage to stalemate all fronts to a standstill (because they are Übermensch soldiers etc.), where do the wheat, oil, rubber, etc. come from? From the economic POV, note that a Germany surrounded on all sides and teetering on a catastrophic defeat can't bully the neutrals, while the grand alliance definitely can. So it's not just the overseas supplies (stopped as per OTL by the British) and the overland replacements (in OTL sent in by the Soviet Union, but not in TTL); the Romanians won't sell oil unless it's at more than fair market price paid in valuable currency (the Germans can't pay), the Swedes might meet unforeseen technical difficulties in delivering the iron ore, no nickel from Finland, no tungsten from Spain, no aluminium from Italy etc. etc.
 
Sticking with the OP...



The mobilization schedule, and state of training of the French second and third echelon reservists, the Series A & B formations, meant a larger offensive could not be mounted until late September or very early October. Beyond that hardly 40 divisions would be combat ready for it, mostly from the 'Active' Series pool. The Series A units would be assembled, but their combat ability at that point would be questionable. Sometime in late October or November all the Series A & B reserve formations in Metropolitan France would be mobilized, and some of the first echelon units from Africa would have arrive. But, its unlikely France could have mustered 60 offense worth divisions before new years. To fund rearmament particularly the new air force the training budget for the ground force had been drastically reduced in the 1930s By 1938 the French reservist was receiving perhaps half the training of a German conscript, ditto for the critical HQ staff of the battalions & divisions. With only a single armored division combat ready in 1939, and a half trained army the French would be confined to carefully planned methodical attacks designed to bite off and hold a few kilometers at a time.

The western Germany was so badly garrisoned though IIRC that they wouldn't need their full strength.
 
In September 1939 USSR did not have a common border with Germany. The unwillingness of Poland to let Soviet forces on its territory was a factor in failure of UK-France/USSR agreement in 1939 and earlier OTL. So, USSR still may declare war but how much it could reasonably do until Poland is overrun?

You raise an excellent point, the Polish refusal to entertain the idea of Soviet troops being stationed in Polish territory, it wasn’t the main problem but it was a major one. However Poland was effectively defeated by the time the Soviet’s marched in, and there are accounts of some Polish officers believing that the Soviet’s were coming to their aid.

If the Soviet’s do intervene on a similar timescale, the Polish government might object but there isn’t much they can do.
 
You raise an excellent point, the Polish refusal to entertain the idea of Soviet troops being stationed in Polish territory, it wasn’t the main problem but it was a major one. However Poland was effectively defeated by the time the Soviet’s marched in, and there are accounts of some Polish officers believing that the Soviet’s were coming to their aid.

If the Soviet’s do intervene on a similar timescale, the Polish government might object but there isn’t much they can do.
Just theoretically Soviets may in order to fulfill Polish wish prepare on their side of border and wait till Polans is defeated. When German in range VSS may try what they can do and eventually Soviet army may counterattack. Whatever result will be. Everything in order. Soviets didn't technically enter Poland till Polish defense totally collaps.
 

trajen777

Banned
1. Germany defeats Poland
2. France on a WW1 plan works on building up the HA and moves at snails pace
3. USSR invasion crushed by Germans -- the USSR does not have the ability to operate on offensive operations and basically lose their initial armies
4. With USSR defeated Germany armies flip to the west and does 1940 happen again, (west still fighting 1918 so with the Blitzkrieg happen?, Actually the reverse of the Shlieff. plan. would have to happen, i think they would beat the Russian invasion, the issue is can they beat France before the USSR can regroup.
5. Any which way Germany loses in the end

Something to think thru :
1. If USSR hammered does Japan attack in the east
2. If Germany does well vs USSR and moves quickly then what does Italy do - it might be better for them to stay neutral for Germany's sake


However if USSR did not move forward with with non aggression pact then Germany would not have attacked Poland, and i think WW 2 would not have happened.
1. Germany does not attack
2. Allies build up forces
3. Germany needs to cut military build up based upon economy
4. Germany frozen and unable to get out of this surrounded situation
5. I think without the aura of the French conquest etc Hitler overthrown by Army in 42 - 43 (when Generals see the enemy buildup growing and the Nazi expenses decreasing) and if Hitler orders an attack.
 
3. USSR invasion crushed by Germans -- the USSR does not have the ability to operate on offensive operations and basically lose their initial armies
4. With USSR defeated Germany armies flip to the west and does 1940 happen again, (west still fighting 1918 so with the Blitzkrieg happen?, Actually the reverse of the Shlieff. plan. would have to happen, i think they would beat the Russian invasion, the issue is can they beat France before the USSR can regroup.
Yes, the Germans would be able to defeat any Soviet offensive in Poland, but that doesn't meant Stalin will surrender. Would they strip the Eastern front of enough soldiers to be able to take on France?
 
Why do we assume that the germans would be able to defeat the soviet offensive? Sure, the winter war preformance was surly lacking, but the flat ground of eastren Poland is not the frozen terrain and narrow fronts of eastren Finland. The Nazis will be able to blant the Soviets for sure, no easy drive to Berlin over here, but the soviets will surly drive the Nazis day by day to the Oder. The German Army will lock Hitler a long time before it happans, but still.
The German army lost huge amounts of ammunitions and matirals in the Battle for Poland, and will lose to the more numeros and better equiped Soviets.
 
Why do we assume that the germans would be able to defeat the soviet offensive? Sure, the winter war preformance was surly lacking, but the flat ground of eastren Poland is not the frozen terrain and narrow fronts of eastren Finland. The Nazis will be able to blant the Soviets for sure, no easy drive to Berlin over here, but the soviets will surly drive the Nazis day by day to the Oder. The German Army will lock Hitler a long time before it happans, but still.
The German army lost huge amounts of ammunitions and matirals in the Battle for Poland, and will lose to the more numeros and better equiped Soviets.

... and then the German army goes to France and G.B for term, who have no desire to see the Red Army on the Rhine. If the Soviets refuse to go along, suddenly they have a united European front set up against them, to say nothing of what Japan might do given the circumstances. Proving Hitler's fear that Communism was going to overwhelm Europe correct isen't exactly going to completely destroy Facism's reputation, particularly since in such a timeline Mussolini hasen't swung in like a jackal yet and could play the role of intermediary
 
... and then the German army goes to France and G.B for term, who have no desire to see the Red Army on the Rhine. If the Soviets refuse to go along, suddenly they have a united European front set up against them, to say nothing of what Japan might do given the circumstances. Proving Hitler's fear that Communism was going to overwhelm Europe correct isen't exactly going to completely destroy Facism's reputation, particularly since in such a timeline Mussolini hasen't swung in like a jackal yet and could play the role of intermediary
Well offcourse, the Soviet army won't reach the Rhine, or even Berlin, I see the final peace treaty as setting the border of (now preety much a soviet puppet) Poland on the Oder, and East Prussia to the Soviets. The Baltic Nations will fall under Moscow's thumb, but might avoid direct annexation. The gratefull Poland offcource will corect her eastern border much in favor of the Soviet Union, and will chose (from her own free will!) a very soviet-freindly govorment, if not go outright communist.
 
A knock on effect I'd lost sight of would the left in Britain and France aligning with the war effort. OTL the Communist party line was the war with Germany was another spasm of the old capitalist order & there was no use getting killed or otherwise working for the war. That lasted til about 22 June 1941.

If the USSR joins the war in 1939 the leftists in France will be more cooperative & enthusiastic.
 
Top