USSR conquers Europe

Stalin make a deal with Hitler, because he wrongly estimated the military capabilities of the Wehrmacht: he predicted that instead of rapid German victory over France in 1940 on the Western Front will begin a long positional war. He was going to use this time to modernize the Red Army and strike at Germany, at the time when they are exhausted by war. But what would have happened if Stalin better predicted the result of the campaign in 1940? Suppose that the fall of 1939 Stalin decides to attack Germany at the time of their victories in the West: resigns from the war with Finland, collects troops in the western regions of the USSR and waits. Coming in May 1940. Hitler crushes the French and the English. June 14 Germans enter Paris. On the same day Stalin announces general mobilization and makes suspend delivery of supplies to Germany. June 20, the Red Army begins an invasion. Germany are completely surprised and terrified. It passes many days before they manage to shift troops from France. At this time, the Soviets break the resistance of 18 divisions that Hitler left in Poland and quickly moving forward. Germany chaos, lack of fuel and food, Wehrmacht fighting no war plan, on the road in arrears crowds of refugees dramatically falling industrial production (due to general mobilization). Terrified Soviet successes Eastern European countries do not want to support the Third Reich. Whether in the long term, the Red Army could defeat Germany alone? Is the Soviet Union came to after the victory of the whole of Europe?
 
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Not very realistic. First,the germans would recognize a military build-up of the Soviet Union on the Border and act accordingly. Second,the Red Army was a complete mess at the time and would likely be unable to advance much before the Germans have troops in the east,at which point the over-stretched and exposed red army suffers an even worse barbarossa
 
They don't even need to see the build up.

June 14 Germans enter Paris. On the same day Stalin announces general mobilization and makes suspend delivery of supplies to Germany.

This would be such a giant tell that Germany would start rushing troops and materials to the Soviet border before Stalin could give the order to go.
 

Deleted member 1487

Stalin gets smashed. His forces were in no shape to attack anyone in Europe in 1940 especially after the Winter War.
 
Stalin gets smashed. His forces were in no shape to attack anyone in Europe in 1940 especially after the Winter War.

Yep. The Red Army likely bog down east of the Vistula and then get smashed in 1941 by the German counterblow. Their only saving grace is that without Germany getting massive Soviet imports during the winter of 1940/41, the Germans won't have the logistics to drive into the heart of Soviet industrial regions. But, like OTL, it is still going to be a long and brutal war that saps the strength of the Soviet state before the Soviets could achieve victory... which is what Stalin wanted to avoid if he could.
 
Not very realistic. First,the germans would recognize a military build-up of the Soviet Union on the Border and act accordingly. Second,the Red Army was a complete mess at the time and would likely be unable to advance much before the Germans have troops in the east,at which point the over-stretched and exposed red army suffers an even worse barbarossa
I wouldn't say that the Germans would be able to advance further in 1940 than IOTL 1941, but they might just be able to complete the primary objective of Barbarossa, which was to destroy the Red Army as a functional fighting force close to the German border. I imagine that Stalin would order a preemptive advance into Poland which would be countered by the Wehrmacht units returning from the Western front in what would be in practice the second phase of the Schlieffen Plan.

If offensive operations against the Wehrmacht went bad IOTL in 1941 Western Russia, I imagine they'd go worse so far into German occupied territory. OTOH, there won't be any logistical preparations for a counter-offensive into Russia, so anything after 1940 depends on how successful the Germans are of encircling an overextended Red Army, or how quick the Red Army can advance into Germany to make the situation untenable for the Axis.

I find that the Germans have the most to gain in this scenario if they can take advantage of Soviet deficiencies.
 
Soviet Russia was a pretty closed society. Could the Soviets hide the mobilization?

Also, would AFTER the complete fall of France be right, or just before, to forces the nazis to have to pull forces from the middle of a battle, so that forces have to be pulled while perhaps under fire?
 
How would the British and the Americans react? Britain was already at war with Germany, but America wasn't yet at war. Would this butterfly Pearl Harbor or would the Japanese still attack it?
 

Deleted member 1487

Soviet Russia was a pretty closed society. Could the Soviets hide the mobilization?

Also, would AFTER the complete fall of France be right, or just before, to forces the nazis to have to pull forces from the middle of a battle, so that forces have to be pulled while perhaps under fire?
No. By intercepting German recon flights they are tipping their hand, plus they had terrible signals security until 1943, so will tip their hand that way. Also German intelligence had a lot of relationships with Ukrainians and Baltic peoples and had broken Soviet codes so they'd know exactly what was coming.

How would the British and the Americans react? Britain was already at war with Germany, but America wasn't yet at war. Would this butterfly Pearl Harbor or would the Japanese still attack it?
Japan might jump in the war on Germany's side even though this is before the Axis pact as the embargo against Japan that triggered their attack on the US hasn't happened yet. The IJA has a lot of beef with the USSR and they'd want to kick them in the head if they could while their back is turned.
 
but they might just be able to complete the primary objective of Barbarossa, which was to destroy the Red Army as a functional fighting force close to the German border.

I wouldn't say it would be that bad. The Germans will likely annihilate the Red Army on either side of the frontier region, but they'll still wind up driving into, and bogging down on, strategic reserves the Soviets routinely and consistently assembled hundreds of kilometers to the rear.
 
I wouldn't say that the Germans would be able to advance further in 1940 than IOTL 1941, but they might just be able to complete the primary objective of Barbarossa, which was to destroy the Red Army as a functional fighting force close to the German border. I imagine that Stalin would order a preemptive advance into Poland which would be countered by the Wehrmacht units returning from the Western front in what would be in practice the second phase of the Schlieffen Plan.

If offensive operations against the Wehrmacht went bad IOTL in 1941 Western Russia, I imagine they'd go worse so far into German occupied territory. OTOH, there won't be any logistical preparations for a counter-offensive into Russia, so anything after 1940 depends on how successful the Germans are of encircling an overextended Red Army, or how quick the Red Army can advance into Germany to make the situation untenable for the Axis.

I find that the Germans have the most to gain in this scenario if they can take advantage of Soviet deficiencies.

I don't agree.

1. Wehrmacht in June 1940 was much weaker than a year later. In the campaign for the West Germans used 7 378 guns, 2 445 tanks, 638 aircraft and 3 350 000 troops. Their losses amounted to 1 236 aircraft, 795 tanks and 27 000 dead. In June 1941, they had a total (together with the forces of Romania, Finland, Hungary and Italy) 4 733 990 troops, 12 686 guns and mortars, and 2,937 aircraft.

2. In the western military districts of the USSR in June 1941 was about 2.6-2.9 million soldiers, but the Soviets were able to mobilize a much larger force. In 1941 they mobilized 5 million people. They could have a very big advantage over the Germans.

3. The production capacity of the Soviet industries were much higher than the German. In 1940, it produced more than 10,000 aircraft. In 1941 - the 12,400. In the first half of 1941, Germany produced 1,621 tanks and assault guns. In 1942, German industry produced 14 700 aircraft, 6,189 tanks and assault guns, 14,300 medium and heavy guns and 9780 mortars. For comparison, in 1941 the Soviets produced 15 735 aircraft, 6590 tanks and 15900 guns and in 1942: 25 436 aircraft, 24 446 tanks and more than 33 000 guns. Industrial production in the USSR increased despite the loss of an area inhabited before the war by 40% of its population. If this did not happen, to increase even more.

4. Germany from June 1940 could not benefit from mineral resources and agricultural USSR.

5. USSR could use some force Romania - the main supplier of crude oil for Germany to introduce an embargo on it, or take the country by force of arms. Lack of fuel significantly limit the usefulness of German tanks and aircraft.

6. Big losses suffered by the Red Army were the result of not only the command of errors and poor quality of the officer corps, but also the surprise effect and the lack of a ready plan of defense. Many Soviet aircraft were destroyed by the Luftwaffe still at airports. In this scenario, the situation is reversed: the Germans are surprised and have to fight without a plan. In the first weeks campaign probably will suffer heavy losses.

7. Even if the Germans found out about concentration Soviet troops near the border in the spring of 1940 that they could not do much because the shifting of some divisions from the western front, greatly reduced the chances of their victory over the Allies.

The fate of the war on the Eastern Front decided outnumbered and material USSR. Germany, so long resisted because in '41 it temporarily reduced the. When the Soviets cool off after a disaster and rebuild his army nothing was able to stop them. The time works for Stalin.
 
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1. Large masses of ill trained and ill equipped men wearing uniforms does not an effective army make. In June 1940 the lessons of the Winter War have not been digested let alone acted upon, and the Red Army is officered by either hacks or those promoted too soon to fill the senior ranks, at this point Stalin is not going to rehabilitate those sent to the GULAG - it took the disaster of the German attack to do that.
2. The USSR does have greater productive capacity, however its not full up yet.
3. As noted before the Germans won't be surprised, and the Soviet Air Force will in no way be as effective as the Luftwaffe in attacks and in the air at this point.
4. Failures of leadership and training are worse on the offense than on defense, where there are "natural" advantages for the defenders. Furthermore I expect that the KGB will be enforcing "advance, advance" which will feed more troops and materiel in to failed attacks.
5. Will the Soviets make some advances in to the German part of Poland and the Baltic states - of course. Will they get in to Germany at all - maybe some of East Prussia, which won't last.
6. Soviet logistics in 1940 suck. The rail net in Poland is standard gauge not Russian broad gauge so the issues the Germans had with rail transport as they advance in to Russia works in reverse. As bad as the Germans were with road transport the Russians are worse in 1940, and a large number of the Red Army's trucks were from the USA.

A final point - as bad as Babrabrossa was for Russia the retreating troops could be salvaged and reformed. Here, Many more troops will be lost by death or capture than OTL.
 
at this point Stalin is not going to rehabilitate those sent to the GULAG - it took the disaster of the German attack to do that.

Actually not true. Rehabilitation of previously arrested officers began in June 1940. The German attack greatly accelerated it though. That is a minor quibble though, as the rest of your points are on the mark.
 
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1. Large masses of ill trained and ill equipped men wearing uniforms does not an effective army make. In June 1940 the lessons of the Winter War have not been digested let alone acted upon, and the Red Army is officered by either hacks or those promoted too soon to fill the senior ranks, at this point Stalin is not going to rehabilitate those sent to the GULAG - it took the disaster of the German attack to do that.
2. The USSR does have greater productive capacity, however its not full up yet.
3. As noted before the Germans won't be surprised, and the Soviet Air Force will in no way be as effective as the Luftwaffe in attacks and in the air at this point.
4. Failures of leadership and training are worse on the offense than on defense, where there are "natural" advantages for the defenders. Furthermore I expect that the KGB will be enforcing "advance, advance" which will feed more troops and materiel in to failed attacks.
5. Will the Soviets make some advances in to the German part of Poland and the Baltic states - of course. Will they get in to Germany at all - maybe some of East Prussia, which won't last.
6. Soviet logistics in 1940 suck. The rail net in Poland is standard gauge not Russian broad gauge so the issues the Germans had with rail transport as they advance in to Russia works in reverse. As bad as the Germans were with road transport the Russians are worse in 1940, and a large number of the Red Army's trucks were from the USA.

A final point - as bad as Babrabrossa was for Russia the retreating troops could be salvaged and reformed. Here, Many more troops will be lost by death or capture than OTL.


POInt 4 is a very strong point.
 
A final point - as bad as Babrabrossa was for Russia the retreating troops could be salvaged and reformed.

No. The majority of Soviet troops, which surprised the German attack in June 1941, was destroyed - by the end of 1941, the Red Army lost 4,000,000 killed, missing and captured - and had to be rebuilt from scratch.

Here, Many more troops will be lost by death or capture than OTL.

Completely disagree. Wehrmacht not only is much weaker than in 1941 and exhausted the French campaign, but has much less room for maneuver: instead of the vast East European Plain, a narrow strip between the Carpathians and the Baltic Sea. Hungary, Romania, Finland and Baltic contries, will not help the Germans, because they are afraid of the Soviet invasion. I can't imagine that immediately after arriving from France, German divisions immediately went on the offensive on a large scale as "Barbarossa". Stalin did not have much to do: just that will command the Red Army to strengthen the line of the Vistula to repel German counterattacks and wait for reinforcements. Soviet industry is already working faster than OTL, because at the end of 1939 switched to war production. Every month, the Red Army will have more soldiers, tanks, aircraft and guns than the Wehrmacht and eventually crush him by his own weight.

EDIT:And if Stalin was planning a war with Germany in 1940, imprisoned officers were released to much earlier.
 
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