USS North Carolina and USS Washington at Pearl Harbour December 7th 1941

[lionhead]

What if the newest battleships of the US navy didn't have their propeller difficulties and were completed earlier and therefor would have arrived at Pearl harbour days or weeks before it was attacked by the Japanese? The North Carolina was definitely sheduled to go there, not sure about the Washington though, but for the sake of argument lets say it will be.

Did the japanese even have info on these 2 ships?
Where would they be berthed in the harbour?
Would they automatically be made top priority targets by the pilots when seeing them?
if they were open for torpedo attack how bad could the damage be(knowing full well the most damage was done by the dive bombers) compared to the ships hit OTL?
Is there a chance they could go like the Arizona from dive bombers?
If they were a total loss, would that change the American tactic at all? What about the Japanese tactics?

I'd say there would be changes, but not much. They can be targeted, but that means other ships are less targeted. Still, a larger portion of the US battleship fleet can be knocked out or a few months, giving the Japanese more room. Interestingly the Atlantic fleet might be adjusted as well, so compensate the loss of ship in the pacific.

Again though, these ships wer brand new and i'm wondering mostly about the psychological impact the future of US battleships. Depending on what happens during the attack of course.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

What if the newest battleships of the US navy didn't have their propeller difficulties and were completed earlier and therefor would have arrived at Pearl harbour days or weeks before it was attacked by the Japanese? The North Carolina was definitely sheduled to go there, not sure about the Washington though, but for the sake of argument lets say it will be.

Did the japanese even have info on these 2 ships?

AFAIK only open source info. There were Navy Dept press releases concerning all the construction started in the late 1930s. Impossible to conceal the dozens of ships started then. But, the details were concealed.

Where would they be berthed in the harbour?

They might not. These two were fast, intended to keep up with the carriers. In the S Pac & later they were assigned to carrier TF as escorts for both surface & AA defense. So they just might have been escorting the carriers of their ferry mission to Wake & Midway islands.

Would they automatically be made top priority targets by the pilots when seeing them?

The attack groups had specific assignments, but also were allowed flexibility. They also attacked so targets from misidentification. Its tough to judge a ship from a speeding aircraft at 2000+ meters in just a few seconds.

if they were open for torpedo attack how bad could the damage be(knowing full well the most damage was done by the dive bombers) compared to the ships hit OTL?
Is there a chance they could go like the Arizona from dive bombers?

Theres many chances. What matters as much as anything is the skill of the crew at damage control. So, how much time these two ships had to train and the attention of their captains to DC matters a lot.

If they were a total loss, would that change the American tactic at all? What about the Japanese tactics?

I'd say there would be changes, but not much. They can be targeted, but that means other ships are less targeted. Still, a larger portion of the US battleship fleet can be knocked out or a few months, giving the Japanese more room. Interestingly the Atlantic fleet might be adjusted as well, so compensate the loss of ship in the pacific.

Again though, these ships wer brand new and i'm wondering mostly about the psychological impact the future of US battleships. Depending on what happens during the attack of course.

The Navy followed WP ORANGE. That did not make much use of the battle ships in the first months, so no change there. It may make a difference later in the S Pac. Several of the old standards were there, but those did not have the speed to do what the Washington & South Dakota did at Guadalcanal.

 

[Alanith]

Well, assuming they're in harbor and not out escorting the Carriers while they deliver aircraft.... any damage sustained by them is pretty much going to be at the top of the priority list. They're brand new after all..

Then again, it might be more fun to ask "What if they're on a gunnery shoot off the islands and stumble out of a fog bank on the morning of Dec 7th to find the Kido Butai 12,000 yards off the Starboard side, with decks half loaded with aircraft and ordinance scattered about in the hangers..."

 

[McPherson]

What if the newest battleships of the US navy didn't have their propeller difficulties and were completed earlier and therefor would have arrived at Pearl harbour days or weeks before it was attacked by the Japanese? The North Carolina was definitely sheduled to go there, not sure about the Washington though, but for the sake of argument lets say it will be.

Did the japanese even have info on these 2 ships?

Brassey. Starting in 1939 forward, they would have the helpful almanac.

Where would they be berthed in the harbour?

Outboard probably at the southern spillover tie offs of Ford Island. Battleship row was jammed to overflowing.

Would they automatically be made top priority targets by the pilots when seeing them?

No. The way the operation was laid out, the two arms of the attack would have still hit Battleship Row from southwest and southeast. The geography of the anchorage dictated the torpedo plane attack axes. It would likely have been the second attack that would need to clean up the southern berths.

if they were open for torpedo attack how bad could the damage be(knowing full well the most damage was done by the dive bombers) compared to the ships hit OTL?

Bows down. Might have been difficult to cofferdam and repair. If the Japanese go center of mass, though, then they would be surprised; US torpedo defense, amidship, was better in the North Carolina class than Yamato's!

Is there a chance they could go like the Arizona from dive bombers?

Always a chance. Depends on magazine pre-detonation deck around B-turret and Japanese bomb fusing delay. Arizona was designed pre-Mitchell. The North Carolinas are post Mitchell.

If they were a total loss, would that change the American tactic at all? What about the Japanese tactics?

Unknown speculatives at the margins. Speculate, anyway, that the USN goes all carrier all the time sooner and the Japanese become euphoric earlier. Won't affect Yamamoto's mistakes strategically or in the operational art at all, though, he will still lose the war at Midway by missing the big picture and concentrating on the wrong details. He should have committed to one objective and fought in style to achieve it, and pounded that same idea home to his subordinates, like Nagumo, who clearly had no idea what the con-op should have been any more than Yamamoto did. Add IGHQ to that mix and the result for defeat is even more predictable and certain. CinCs Combined Fleet after Yamamoto do a much better job of it as to planning and the actual fights, but for them, the war is already lost, so they react instead of dictate to events.

I'd say there would be changes, but not much. They can be targeted, but that means other ships are less targeted. Still, a larger portion of the US battleship fleet can be knocked out or a few months, giving the Japanese more room. Interestingly the Atlantic fleet might be adjusted as well, so compensate the loss of ship in the pacific.

Possible butterflies?

Battleship construction halted on US side and emphasis put on aircraft and submarines more. This happens anyway, but the newest and best American battleships kissing mud adds to the impetus.

As the launch platforms (aircraft and submarines) demonstrate torpedo ineffectiveness on the American side, even more panic sets in and more "fix it now" programs take off a whole year earlier. There is a whole thread in which I participate devoted to this very butterfly. It is entitled "Those Marvelous Tin Fish; The Great Torpedo Scandal Avoided"

Fighting based on the thesis presented here, I think, assumes a different look and feel with land-based air becoming even more important for the Americans ATL than it did RTL. Expect SWPOA to become the main and only axis until PACFlt gets enough hulls to support a naval air force.

Again though, these ships wer brand new and i'm wondering mostly about the psychological impact the future of US battleships. Depending on what happens during the attack of course.

It is hard to pick one portion of the Pearl Harbor attack, butterfly it, and isolate the part and wonder what-if. So much went wrong, that the cumulative effect drowns out specific events, such as the failure of the anti-submarine defenses to keep out the Japanese mini-subs and what that meant for the USS Oklahoma. Historians debate that one now. Maybe the Ward blew it? We don't know. But we can speculate.

 

[Joseph890]

I just had a great idea. Pearl harbor before the attacks is teleported into 2018. I feel that it would be very amusing and interesting

 

[McPherson]

I just had a great idea. Pearl harbor before the attacks is teleported into 2018. I feel that it would be very amusing and interesting

It has been done:

Well, assuming they're in harbor and not out escorting the Carriers while they deliver aircraft.... any damage sustained by them is pretty much going to be at the top of the priority list. They're brand new after all..

Then again, it might be more fun to ask "What if they're on a gunnery shoot off the islands and stumble out of a fog bank on the morning of Dec 7th to find the Kido Butai 12,000 yards off the Starboard side, with decks half loaded with aircraft and ordinance scattered about in the hangers..."

Who commands the Americans in this exercise? If it is Pye, then it becomes a staring contest. Anyone else (I'm thinking Lee) and it is mutual assured destruction as the Americans open up. One thing though: loss of Kido Butai's flattops means a short merry war for the IJN as they manage fewer successes like the Indian Ocean raid, and Darwin. Who knows? ABDA might even be able to make a fight of it.

 

[Viper91]

I'd have to agree with the possibility that unlike the older battleships, these two might either be used to escort one or more Pacific Fleet carriers, or possibly operating their own independent surface action group.

Aside from carrier escort, I'm not sure what butterflies would or could occur with their earlier arrival in theater. Off hand, I could see at least one if not both of them going with Yorktown and Enterprise to raid the Marshall Islands in February 1942. Assume some Japanese shore installations will be wrecked by long range 16 inch gunfire, maybe add one or two additional auxiliary ships sunk.

At Coral Sea and Midway you'd probably see them providing AA support. Add another 12 or so Japanese aircraft losses at Coral Sea, subtract one bomb or torpedo hit from either Lexington or Yorktown.

 

[McPherson]

I'd have to agree with the possibility that unlike the older battleships, these two might either be used to escort one or more Pacific Fleet carriers, or possibly operating their own independent surface action group.

Aside from carrier escort, I'm not sure what butterflies would or could occur with their earlier arrival in theater. Off hand, I could see at least one if not both of them going with Yorktown and Enterprise to raid the Marshall Islands in February 1942. Assume some Japanese shore installations will be wrecked by long range 16 inch gunfire, maybe add one or two additional auxiliary ships sunk.

At Coral Sea and Midway you'd probably see them providing AA support. Add another 12 or so Japanese aircraft losses at Coral Sea, subtract one bomb or torpedo hit from either Lexington or Yorktown.

That would just be enough (see underlined) to save Lexington and doom Shokaku. A very different war results.

 

[lionhead]

Outboard probably at the southern spillover tie offs of Ford Island. Battleship row was jammed to overflowing.

No. The way the operation was laid out, the two arms of the attack would have still hit Battleship Row from southwest and southeast. The geography of the anchorage dictated the torpedo plane attack axes. It would likely have been the second attack that would need to clean up the southern berths.

To my understanding Battleship row was hard to hit as they were forced into 1 lane of attack, very narrow. Since the first group of torpedo bombers came from the north and there are 2 more bigger targets at a seperate location i think, instead of hitting battleship row its more likely they will go for those, its the first battleships they encounter anyway. Besides, the first wave planes were supposed to go after the carriers and if they weren't there go after battleships, not battleship row specifically. They hit targets outside battleship row, but most did indeed fire all their torps at 2 ships in battleship row. However, if these 2 bigger battleships will be stationed in the south part of the island as well they might decide not to waste all their torps on 2 ships in a narrow straight and divert to hit those ships, although they won't be easy to hit and the AA is probably better, causing more losses perhaps even before they can launch. But i think its likely.

It has been done:

Thats, not even close to the suggestion. That movie sucked because nothing changed in the end.

 

[McPherson]

To my understanding Battleship row was hard to hit as they were forced into 1 lane of attack, very narrow. Since the first group of torpedo bombers came from the north and there are 2 more bigger targets at a seperate location i think, instead of hitting battleship row its more likely they will go for those, its the first battleships they encounter anyway. Besides, the first wave planes were supposed to go after the carriers and if they weren't there go after battleships, not battleship row specifically. They hit targets outside battleship row, but most did indeed fire all their torps at 2 ships in battleship row. However, if these 2 bigger battleships will be stationed in the south part of the island as well they might decide not to waste all their torps on 2 ships in a narrow straight and divert to hit those ships, although they won't be easy to hit and the AA is probably better, causing more losses perhaps even before they can launch. But i think its likely.

Your description of the attack plan and the USN's does not match at all. Notice the torpedo planes?

Thats, not even close to the suggestion. That movie sucked because nothing changed in the end.

That was my way of suggesting that his suggestion might have been an ironic comment ABOUT THE THESIS. There are rules here that mandate I poke satiric fun at myself to make my point about a poster's suggestion in as non-offensive and value neutral way as possible, but still get across my idea that his suggestion was intended and should be treated as an inoffensive joke.

 

[lionhead]

Your description of the attack plan and the USN's does not match at all. Notice the torpedo planes?

Yes, verystrange, but you can see one group approached from the west because thats where the carriers were supposed to be, an animation on youtube(montemayor) showed it as though they approached from the north. According to that drawing one group of torpedo bombers went towards barbers point and attack the airfield though...

That was my way of suggesting that his suggestion might have been an ironic comment ABOUT THE THESIS. There are rules here that mandate I poke satiric fun at myself to make my point about a poster's suggestion in as non-offensive and value neutral way as possible, but still get across my idea that his suggestion was intended and should be treated as an inoffensive joke.

Okay, no need to shout. No idea what you are talking about. Sunday in my head i suppose.

 

[GTStinger]

If the fast carriers were with the carriers during PH, a Wake resupply attempt might be more likely.
Presuming fuel isn’t an issue.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Your description of the attack plan and the USN's does not match at all. Notice the torpedo planes?



That was my way of suggesting that his suggestion might have been an ironic comment ABOUT THE THESIS. There are rules here that mandate I poke satiric fun at myself to make my point about a poster's suggestion in as non-offensive and value neutral way as possible, but still get across my idea that his suggestion was intended and should be treated as an inoffensive joke.

Looks suspiciously like one group of TBs splits off and attacks Ewa Field... innovative!

 

[McPherson]

Looks suspiciously like one group of TBs splits off and attacks Ewa Field... innovative!

The Kate was the horizontal bomber of the Kido Butai. Torpedo or bomb, the drop function was the same. I'd expect barracks and parked plane targets and hangers to be attacked by free fall bombs (The Japanese did not attack the runways for some reason.) and revetments and berms to be dive bombed.

Speaking of which...

Little late, but better than never.

 

[lionhead]

The Kate was the horizontal bomber of the Kido Butai. Torpedo or bomb, the drop function was the same. I'd expect barracks and parked plane targets and hangers to be attacked by free fall bombs (The Japanese did not attack the runways for some reason.) and revetments and berms to be dive bombed.

On the illustration a distinction is made between horizontal bombers and torpedo bombers, splitting up at 7:50 AM, the horizontal bomber heading for Hickam field. Both runs are Kates, but i'd say the torpedo bombers are carrying torpedos, and those split up again into 3, one approaching Pearl from the west, one circling around to attack battleship row from the south and the third appearing to be attack Ewa field. Kinda strange.

 

[McPherson]

Not really. Look at the target set and see if you can figure it out? Also, note that the illustration shows the approach vectors for both attacks.

 

[lionhead]

Not really. Look at the target set and see if you can figure it out? Also, note that the illustration shows the approach vectors for both attacks.

Well yeah i can see what it actually means, but its just a weird illustration, its also missing the attack on Bellows airfield. Could have been done better. But thats all besides the point. The point is planes came in from the west that could have targeted the North Carolina and Washington if they were berthed on the south of Ford island. Maybe 3 or 4 torpedos would have been launched, dispersed between the 2 if they were positioned front to rear. Not much, but still. Of course the second wave, like you said would have targeted them as well, although under a lot of AA fire. I'd say total damage would have taken them out of the war till February or March, depending if there is room for them to repair in the same timeframe. With bad luck, they go in drydock till 1944 like 2 or 3 others(not sure) or one of them a total loss like the Arizona and Oklahoma. Last 2 scenarios will leave a good gap in the pacific fleet, prompting them to take away fom the atlantic fleet.

All in all, not a huge difference, but what of the 6 Iowa's or potential Montana? I mean, they are missing more battleships from the fleet now. Gotta build some replacements.

 

[McPherson]

Yeah, interesting speculation but it does not fit the RTL attack as it devloped. Here are a few more examples to give one an idea of what the attack developed like.

There are several versions.

First attack wave:

And

Here is Hyperwar. Source documents.

Summary report.

Is that helpful?

 

[CalBear]

If the fast carriers were with the carriers during PH, a Wake resupply attempt might be more likely.
Presuming fuel isn’t an issue.

Fuel would likely be less of an issue. The BB were also able to refuel escorts in a pinch. As noted both fast BB would likely have been at sea, one with the Lex, the other with Enterprise.

 

[HB of CJ]

Excellent Thread everybody and thank you for all the cool maps. If the USS NC and USS WA were at Pearl Harbor would that also imply that all the existing carriers would also be at Pearl Harbor on December 7th, 1941? Would have the Japanese Carrier Fleet stuck pure gold? The very best luck? Most of the USN Pacific Fleet in one fragile boxed in basket?

If sosss, then probably a third and fourth Japanese carrier strike would have been conducted? Risk Reward equation. What about if only the NC and the WA were in Pearl and NOT the carriers? What then? The USN carriers are still at sea. Probably then the Japanese would have stayed with their operations plan. No real changes. Good for the USN and USA.

Maybe a third strike against the oil tanks AND the new USN battleships. Maybe not.