Kapitan-Heneral
If for some reason the USS Maine makes it to Cuba in one piece, what happens next? Would the US find other casus belli just get Cuba from Spain? What are the other butterflies?
It did make it there, it blew up in harbor. Anyway, given that the White House really didnt want a war (congress really did), its possible it could be avoided, maybe just delayed.
unprincipled peter
Donor
this was an easily avoided war, and not some foregone conclusion. Sans the perfect storm of having the Maine blow itself up (which, of course, was blamed on Spain), pro war sentiment could have just as easily faded away/held in check as having a different spark ignite the tinder.
If the Americans decided not to go to war. USA had no intention of avoiding this war.
Monroe doctrine must not exist in TTL. You have to convince the US public not to go to war, the US Congress not to increase the defense budget like in OTL. Money talks in the USA. You must change the whole concept of the USA for this not to happen.
It is hard to avoid a war when this war is going to provide jobs, just like Iraq war and any other American war.
Thats a tall order within 2 months from sinking of Maine to OTL DoW.
The population was not united in favor of the war. In fact, even after the explosion, there was still a sizable portion of the population that was willing to wait until the commission that studied the explosion came back with a report. The moment *that* concluded that it was an attack by Spain, support for the war went off the charts (I may be misremembering this, but Hearst got ahold of the report early and ran with it).
Now, given that there were still influential segments of the population and government that did think war was the proper course of action, its still possible (maybe even likely), but it would be most certainly delayed.
Cuba could have been conquered from the Spanish pre-Civil War (during the time of 'Filibuster' wars in Central America waged privately by Southern landowners) via the Ostend Manifesto (1854). America could have made the offer to purchase Cuba and, had the Spanish refused, justified declaring war for Cuba's annexation as a slave state. Very popular in the South at the time (arguable that the Civil War could have been 'postponed' even longer if this had gone through; also, no US Philippines).