Seems to me the thesis that absent the destruction of the Maine there would have been a war anyhow is reasonable, given the tenor of the times: I agree that somehow, some way Hearst and his cohorts would have found something to magnify into a casus belli. With that there would be conflict in the Caribbean anyhow, most likely Cuba given the proximity to the continental US. Thus the butterflies are relatively quiescent.
That the US would have wound up with Hawaii one way or the other seems pretty well beyond much dispute: the machinery was already there. It's the involvement in the Philippines that is up for grabs. All it would take is a somewhat different treaty. (If I recall correctly, many members of the US Senate at the time were at best vague in their understanding of where the Philippines were, and what practical value they might have had.)
That the US would have wound up with Hawaii one way or the other seems pretty well beyond much dispute: the machinery was already there. It's the involvement in the Philippines that is up for grabs. All it would take is a somewhat different treaty. (If I recall correctly, many members of the US Senate at the time were at best vague in their understanding of where the Philippines were, and what practical value they might have had.)