USS Maine does not explode

Seems to me the thesis that absent the destruction of the Maine there would have been a war anyhow is reasonable, given the tenor of the times: I agree that somehow, some way Hearst and his cohorts would have found something to magnify into a casus belli. With that there would be conflict in the Caribbean anyhow, most likely Cuba given the proximity to the continental US. Thus the butterflies are relatively quiescent.

That the US would have wound up with Hawaii one way or the other seems pretty well beyond much dispute: the machinery was already there. It's the involvement in the Philippines that is up for grabs. All it would take is a somewhat different treaty. (If I recall correctly, many members of the US Senate at the time were at best vague in their understanding of where the Philippines were, and what practical value they might have had.)
 
Maybe not over the Philippines but war with Japan offers some advantages. The allies are all broke and Japan has a lot of money having sat out the war for the most part. She's also relatively easy pickings. A simple naval battle with no trenches and mass casualties.

So Italy, France and Britain get it into their heads to send a "Dear Japan" note- a modern rerun of the Triple Intervention in 1895. Britain gets the Philippines, France Taiwan, Korea is Italian, leave China and assume our debts or we will sink your fleet and really impose terms

It could happen especially with America not at the peace table
I can see that making Japan's militarism even crazier than OTL.
 
Question though: How did the Japanese get ahold of the Phillipines? As far as I remember there wasn't any real reason for the Spanish to lose them in the wake of WWI since they were neutral, unless you're talking about in the wake of the Spanish Civil War they take that as a pretext to seize them, though by that point I'm pretty sure that they've lost their good relations with Britain, what with the occupation of Manchuria and Rape of Nanking happening prior to the end of that conflict.
I don't think the Spanish would maintain a hold on the Philippines: the Americans barely held out against the Guerillas IOTL, it was such a hard fought war, the Spanish were certainly in no position to do so. I think an independent Philippine Republic is fairly likely, which at some point gets annexed by the Japanese.
 
historyfelon,
I disagree with your post. 4 people liked my post, so apparently I'm not alone.

I believe your basic premise that the US won't hold major interests in the far east sans a war is a house built on very shaky ground. I believe that any talk of joining Britain and Japan in an alliance is unlikely - the US was quite content in being protected by two oceans even with possession of the Philippines. It's quite true that no stage for TR to take the limelight has a lot of butterflies. While the S-A war is quite easily avoided, it is also undeniable that there were a lot of pressures to have it proceed, so it's not a good assumption that no Maine means no war. If it proceeds, it's likely to go as OTL, although individual actors may have their roles changed (TR). Even without TR as president, you can't just blanket butterfly away Hiroshima. You can certainly make a case for or against it happening. No one man can flap his wings that hard to change world trends.
 
From almost as soon as the Philippine Insurrection ended and the USA controlled the PI, the USA realized that actually defending the PI against Japan (the only expected opponent who might want the PI) would be difficult and require a huge commitment of resources. After WWI War Plan Orange pretty much explicitly was based on the fact that the PI were indefensible, and any significant garrison holding out until the US forces could relieve them was slim. Assuming no S-A War and Spain holds the PI in 1898, I can't see the Spanish holding the PI much longer. Spain is broke, their military is in terrible shape including their navy (the most expensive part of the military) and the PI, unlike other parts of the empire, is not only far away but also not profitable. For the Filipinos, the problem is that the leaders of the anti-Spanish insurrection were Christians from Luzon and the northern part of the islands. If the Spanish are ejected a division between the Christian north and Muslim south is entirely possible, and neither half will have much in the way of financial resources making them vulnerable.

As far as Japan needing a guarantee from the UK about keeping the PI for them to take them if Germany has them, they had no such guarantee for the Pacific islands (which actually came as mandates from the League of Nations not direct acquisitions). The British may not be happy about Japan retaining the PI, but they won't go to war over it and neither would the French. Neither the Wilson/pro LoN faction in the USA nor the Lodge/anti-LoN faction will want to "own" the PI either directly or as a mandate, and certainly won't want to see a single doughboy die to secure them. Yes there was huge racism at Versailles, but possession is 9/10 of the law, and the UK, USA, and France have very few levers in 1918 to force Japan out of the PI. If the PI have been German owned since Spain gave them up, it is doubtful the powers at Versailles would see them as ready for independence - the "little brown brothers" will need guidance and education, the reason LoN mandates came about was just this sort of racism substituting one colonial power for another (Germany).

BTW the US military learned a lot of useful lessons from the long list of failures of the military in the S-A War. These led to the restructuring of the National Guard system, a small part of the sweeping Root Reforms of the early 1900s. Absent the S-A War and the painful and expensive lessons learned, the US military will be in even worse shape when they enter WWI (assuming they do).
 
Could a German Phillippines butterfly the OTL WWI? Say around 1900 or so Germany acquires the Phillippines. It's probably a nasty little war that the Kaiser at al. ballyhoo for all its worth. For the first time, Germany now has a significant colony outside Africa, which has significant trade value.

This is going to divert some German resources and attention. There is a good chance that it leads to even greater pressure for a larger German fleet. Which probably means a somewhat smaller army. Does this lead to different decisions by the German leadership, a little more caution, that ends up putting off the war or leading to a different outbreak?

Also, an even larger Germany navy means a more hostile Britain, possibly with an accelerated commitment to having an army to possibly aid France. Either the greater certainty that Britain will join in gives Germany pause, or leads to different decisions at the beginning of the war by both British, French, and German decisionmakers. For instance, if the French know the British are onside no matter what, do they up and invade Belgium themselves?

This is a surprisingly juicy POD.
 
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If France enters Belgium first this would cause serious problems with the UK, assuming the Belgians do not invite them in. I'm not sure how "profitable" the PI would be for Germany, assuming they acquire them in 1900, along with the Pacific Islands they got from Spain. The latter were purchased OTL, and given the situation in the PI and the financial state of Spain I can see a package deal. Germany, like the USA, will need to deal with the local independence movement(s) and make significant infrastructure investments in the PI both civilian and military. Without looking at the figures for Philippine exports between 1900 and 1918 IMHO the PI, like most colonial possessions, will represent a net loss rather than gain. Only colonies with significant natural resources to be extracted and/or those ruthlessly exploited (like the Belgian Congo) with bare minimum of infrastructure improvements turned a profit. Often that profit was short lived - once the gold, slaves, or whatever had been extracted or the price of an agricultural commodity dropped (international competition or just out of fashion) the balance sheet shifted.

A Germany has a more extensive network of possessions in the Pacific, they will have to enlarge their navy. Naturally any increase in the Kaiserlich Marine will drive the British towards an earlier naval arms race. I doubt it would cause the British to have a more formal alliance with France (or anyone else in Europe) as this would run counter to long standing British policy. If Britain makes a larger response in the naval area to Germany than OTL, they can't make commitments requiring a larger army force for the continent. The good news for the UK is this German fleet increase would be in the Pacific and not a threat in home waters or the Atlantic. As the example of the German China Squadron OTL shows, the RN and allied assets in the Pacific will either sink or keep in port these ships.
 
circa 1900, Britain was actively seeking allies. They considered Germany until the naval race gave them pause. they wanted the US, but US were satisfied with splendid isolation. So they went with Japan, and then an alliance with France/Russia. Everyone knew the world was a powderkeg and were seeking alliances to either keep the lid on or be a friend if it blew.
 

bguy

Donor
As far as Japan needing a guarantee from the UK about keeping the PI for them to take them if Germany has them, they had no such guarantee for the Pacific islands (which actually came as mandates from the League of Nations not direct acquisitions).

Totally different situation. Germany's Pacific Islands were barely defended, so it took almost no effort on Japan's part to size them. Thus the risk was worth the reward.

By contrast a German Phillipines is presumably going to be reasonable well defended. There will probably at a minimum be at least 20,000 German soldiers in the islands and probably a much larger force than that, and I would expect a large German navy contingent at Subic Bay as well. Japan will know that they are going to take far, far greater casualties attacking the Philippines then they ever could have taken attacking those Pacific islands, so they are going to want a guarantee before they risk that much blood and treasure.

The British may not be happy about Japan retaining the PI, but they won't go to war over it and neither would the French. Neither the Wilson/pro LoN faction in the USA nor the Lodge/anti-LoN faction will want to "own" the PI either directly or as a mandate, and certainly won't want to see a single doughboy die to secure them. Yes there was huge racism at Versailles, but possession is 9/10 of the law, and the UK, USA, and France have very few levers in 1918 to force Japan out of the PI. If the PI have been German owned since Spain gave them up, it is doubtful the powers at Versailles would see them as ready for independence - the "little brown brothers" will need guidance and education, the reason LoN mandates came about was just this sort of racism substituting one colonial power for another (Germany).

But Japan will have no way of knowing in 1914 (when they have to make the decision on whether or not to attack the Philippines) that Britain, France, and the U.S. will be so exhausted by the end of the war that they will let Japan keep what it conquers. (After all its not as though any of the powers realized in 1914 that the war was going to last 4 years.) And the Japanese have a lot of recent experience of the other powers "cheating" them out of their conquests (the Triple Intervention in 1895 and the Treaty of Portsmouth in 1905), so they will have to assume that the U.S., Britain, and France won't let them keep the Philippines. As such I don't see Japan sacrificing tens of thousands of their soldiers to invade the Philippines unless they have an explicit guarantee from the British that they can keep it.
 
Maybe not over the Philippines but war with Japan offers some advantages. The allies are all broke and Japan has a lot of money having sat out the war for the most part. She's also relatively easy pickings. A simple naval battle with no trenches and mass casualties.

So Italy, France and Britain get it into their heads to send a "Dear Japan" note- a modern rerun of the Triple Intervention in 1895. Britain gets the Philippines, France Taiwan, Korea is Italian, leave China and assume our debts or we will sink your fleet and really impose terms

It could happen especially with America not at the peace table
The public in Britain and France would never stand for it. These are two countries that want nothing more to do with war...UK is happy to have escaped with a win...and France will begin building the Maginot Line in a few years. Going to the Pacific to fight Japan for anything..out of the question (IMHO).
 
Totally different situation. Germany's Pacific Islands were barely defended, so it took almost no effort on Japan's part to size them. Thus the risk was worth the reward.

By contrast a German Phillipines is presumably going to be reasonable well defended. There will probably at a minimum be at least 20,000 German soldiers in the islands and probably a much larger force than that, and I would expect a large German navy contingent at Subic Bay as well. Japan will know that they are going to take far, far greater casualties attacking the Philippines then they ever could have taken attacking those Pacific islands, so they are going to want a guarantee before they risk that much blood and treasure.



But Japan will have no way of knowing in 1914 (when they have to make the decision on whether or not to attack the Philippines) that Britain, France, and the U.S. will be so exhausted by the end of the war that they will let Japan keep what it conquers. (After all its not as though any of the powers realized in 1914 that the war was going to last 4 years.) And the Japanese have a lot of recent experience of the other powers "cheating" them out of their conquests (the Triple Intervention in 1895 and the Treaty of Portsmouth in 1905), so they will have to assume that the U.S., Britain, and France won't let them keep the Philippines. As such I don't see Japan sacrificing tens of thousands of their soldiers to invade the Philippines unless they have an explicit guarantee from the British that they can keep it.
Either way the US isn't there and so we have less stake in China, or at least less ability to do much beyond an embargo of Japanese goods and freezing their assets. That was my original point..if the USS Maine stays afloat we don't end up nuking Japan..we still build the bomb, but because we just concentrate on Europe in WWII that war, if we get involved, ends earlier and we may not have the bomb done by then. More butterflies for the Cold War or a Cold War with a victorious Germany because we never enter the war.
 
historyfelon,
I disagree with your post. 4 people liked my post, so apparently I'm not alone.

I believe your basic premise that the US won't hold major interests in the far east sans a war is a house built on very shaky ground. I believe that any talk of joining Britain and Japan in an alliance is unlikely - the US was quite content in being protected by two oceans even with possession of the Philippines. It's quite true that no stage for TR to take the limelight has a lot of butterflies. While the S-A war is quite easily avoided, it is also undeniable that there were a lot of pressures to have it proceed, so it's not a good assumption that no Maine means no war. If it proceeds, it's likely to go as OTL, although individual actors may have their roles changed (TR). Even without TR as president, you can't just blanket butterfly away Hiroshima. You can certainly make a case for or against it happening. No one man can flap his wings that hard to change world trends.
If the war with Spain is delayed TR's order to Dewey may butterfly away. Why go after the Philippines..our argument with Spain is over Cuba. No Maine is like having no Pearl Harbor...even if we go to war it is going to be a shadow of the real one.
 
The public in Britain and France would never stand for it. These are two countries that want nothing more to do with war...UK is happy to have escaped with a win...and France will begin building the Maginot Line in a few years. Going to the Pacific to fight Japan for anything..out of the question (IMHO).

It might be a hard sell. Claim that the Japanese are being greedy, that they didn't really help and that they want all of Asia the British, French and Italian navies wouldn't have much problem with Japan and there's always Chinese to use as cannon fodder if the need arises.

An even cleverer idea would be to use the captured German fleet. Tell the Germans if they cooperate, you might moderate Versailles a bit. It doesn't have to be much, dropping the war guilt clause or letting them keep Danzing or take something off the reparations. Add in the threat that if they don't cooperate, the terms could get much worse and presto, Japan is beaten at no risk to yourselves. That might be easy to sell at home: The Germans and Chinese have agreed to conquer Japan for us. It would be a vote winner.

Japan's only purpose from a British point of view was to check Russian expansion not to conquer China and rule the Far East for themselves. With Russia dissolving into anarchy and civil war, that need is much reduced
 
It might be a hard sell. Claim that the Japanese are being greedy, that they didn't really help and that they want all of Asia the British, French and Italian navies wouldn't have much problem with Japan and there's always Chinese to use as cannon fodder if the need arises.

An even cleverer idea would be to use the captured German fleet. Tell the Germans if they cooperate, you might moderate Versailles a bit. It doesn't have to be much, dropping the war guilt clause or letting them keep Danzing or take something off the reparations. Add in the threat that if they don't cooperate, the terms could get much worse and presto, Japan is beaten at no risk to yourselves. That might be easy to sell at home: The Germans and Chinese have agreed to conquer Japan for us. It would be a vote winner.

Japan's only purpose from a British point of view was to check Russian expansion not to conquer China and rule the Far East for themselves. With Russia dissolving into anarchy and civil war, that need is much reduced
I just don't see the public in two nations that have a voting public wanting to do anything to continue fighting. You could see from the farce of the US and European intervention in the Russian Revolution. Very unpopular with the folks back home. Only the Japanese kept involved to the bitter end..keeping a large force in Vladivostok after the Americans and Euros had gone home.
 
historyfelon,
It boils down to: you want to write your TTL your way, I want to write mine my way. neither of us is automatically right or wrong. I think you're barking up the wrong tree. In any war with Spain, Philippines are a natural target. That does not get butterflied away in any realistic war scenario. Regardless of a war, or no war, the US will have major interests in the far east. Butterflying TR will affect how things shake out, not only in his actions as president, but also butterflying Taft, and quite likely Wilson. So, yes, I can easily see WWI, and hence WWII going differently, but the major world trends that lead to WWI are not going to change, the overall likely destruction of WWI is not going to change, and there's a good likelihood that the trends which lead to WWII are not going to change. Naturally, the further away from POD you get the more change from OTL is likely. As I said, you can write your TTL as you want, but, IMO, you are changing way too much of pressures that have no real reason to change. TR is the one realistic change, but even that isn't a given. IF there's a war, which is just as likely as not, his personality will lead him to seek the limelight, which puts us at no butterflies at all. IF there's a war, it's delayed by months, not years (a delay of years likely lets the pressures that lead to war dissipate and butterfly it away), and a delay of months doesn't alter the conduct of the war. TR was a minor character who did not determine the course of the war. We fight it, win it, in pretty much the same way with or without him. TR simply used the occasion to steal the show. Either of us can have TR catch a bullet or steal the show as in TTL. IF you want to place him in front of a bullet and use that to change OTL, go for it, but the war will be conducted as scheduled, and even if it isn't, we will still have major interests in the far east and won't be eager to just let Japan run roughshod over them.
 
If USS Maine doesn't explode, the most likely scenario would be the following:

Spain would defeated the Cuban separatists before the end of 1898 -without US intervention, Spanish would probably have won completely before the end of 1898, due to 2 facts to take into account: Cuban separatist barely surpassed a few thousand combatants at the end of 1897 and the fact that Spanish government approved the autonomy for Cuba and Puerto Rico in November 1897 (although Cuban autonomy would not be fully enforced until peace was established in Cuba, a fact that didn't occur due to the Spanish-American War)-. As for the Philippines, there was a truce between the Spanish and the Filipino separatists, based on the Pact of Biak-na-Bato, which promised a future autonomy for the Philippines within the Spanish Empire.

As for the United States, its immediate expansionist ambitions would be reduced to Hawaii and Samoa, with all that that would mean for the future -without the Spanish-American War, Spain would not be forced to sell their Pacific archipelagos (Carolines, Marianas and Palau islands) to the Second German Empire, which would lose them at the hands of the Japanese during WW1; while the US position won't be as strong in the Far East to stop Japanese imperialism in the zone-.

However, if the Spaniards don't take advantage of this last opportunity to maintain its control in the Philippines, Japanese will surely try to take advantage of it after the Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905), although in this case (unless the Spanish government decides to urgently modernize the Spanish armed forces after 1898; a fact that I doubted, except that Madrid accepted the French offer of 1902 to the partition of Morocco between both countries -Spain rejected it at the time, fearing the British rejection; and when Spain pretended to accept it years later, France considerably reduced the Spanish portion-), it's most likely that the Philippines will become an independent Spanish-speaking republic, with a strategic alliance with Japan -which in practice, it could become a Japanese protectorate-, who that surely would manage to be annexed the Carolines, Marianas -including Guam- and Palau archipelagos. And that without forgetting the possible interferences of Britain -ally of Japan from 1902; we must also remember that it supplied the US Navy fleet located in Hong Kong (where Filipino separatist leadership was exiled, based in the Pact of Biak-na-Bato) to attack the Philippines-, Germany -in the zone controls German New Guinea and Marshall islands; the latter were recognized by Spain after Carolinas Crisis (1885)- and USA -that would take advantage of the matter to try to annex or colonize Cuba and Puerto Rico-.
 
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I'm wondering if Spain could hold onto Cuba and the Philippines if not only the Main didn't explode, but if USA left the Spanish alone.
 
Alex,
there's two parts to that question: keep them away from other powers? sure. It isn't a sure thing that some other power will seize them. you need a cause other than greed to make it palatable to the world powers. The US able to manufacture a cause as Cuba is in their backyard and Philippines are where Spanish Pacific navy is, thus ostensibly posing a threat to our west coast. and US is not part of the world powder keg. Same does not apply to European powers. Even bigger is that the European powers are locked in a showdown standoff prior to WW1. a land grab of that magnitude might light the fuse on fire. Japan might very well find itself isolated if it tries, and isn't big enough to take on the world, yet. So the players in question have good reason to hang back. post WW1, if it plays out as OTL, everyone is too exhausted. Japan has the best shot, but their priorities are in China/Manchuria.

keep them away from internal rebels? the movement toward autonomy/independence isn't going away.
 
The Spanish were dealing with the Cuban rebels mostly fine, although I wonder if the "wack rebels" expense line takes up 30% or more of taxes collected from Cuba.... or maybe 300%
 
I'm sorry, but I'm fairly confident the one scenario that is unlikely to result from this is a truly independent Philippines. Even if America doesn't invade (which is plausible with the PoD) and Germany doesn't take the islands (which is probable) Japan is going to go after it and no one will stop them. It might be an independent nation in name but it will absolutely be under the thumb of the imperialist Japanese.
 
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