USS Maine does not explode

I'm fairly certain that Japan would not get a "German" Philippines at Versailles. Even if they had occupied it before the American entry into WW1 then the mandate would probably go to the USA, Britain or Australia because of the way Japan was treated at Versailles (see Shandong).

There's no chance that America would get the islands. They didn't join the war until 1917 and by then Japan would be totally entrenched in the islands. i think it's politically easier for the Japanese to retain the Philippines than it is for territory in China because now both sides can get something without it being at the expense of the other. Japan would gladly surrender Shandong if it meant it got the Philippines.

There's also the fact that Japan would be far busier in this war than OTL and might not even give China the 21 demands. The Philippines are going to take far more blood, time and treasure to conquer compared to the few Pacific holdings Japan waltzed into in OTL.
 
I think you underestimate the sheer extent of the racism during the Versailles negotiations - Japan isn't going to get the Philippines short of refusing to leave and risking a nasty conflict with the colonial powers
 
I think you underestimate the sheer extent of the racism during the Versailles negotiations - Japan isn't going to get the Philippines short of refusing to leave and risking a nasty conflict with the colonial powers

Who's going to make them leave? The western allies let Russia fall to communism so they were clearly sick of war at this point, all Japan has to do is call their bluff and sit tight. And this wouldn't be a Japan that tried to go after China when everyone is looking elsewhere (thought that may still happen) this would be a Japan that played a much bigger role in taking down Germany and her most important colony.
 

bguy

Donor
There's also the fact that Japan would be far busier in this war than OTL and might not even give China the 21 demands. The Philippines are going to take far more blood, time and treasure to conquer compared to the few Pacific holdings Japan waltzed into in OTL.

Would the Japanese even be the ones to invade the Philippines in this scenario? The Australians aren't going to be happy about Germany controlling the Philippines (and they won't want the Japanese taking them either), so if any war breaks out between the British Empire and Germany when the Germans hold the Philippines I would expect to see the ANZACs heading to Luzon instead of Gallipoli.
 
Why not have the Philippines go independent? Y'all are ignoring the entire generation of boiling tensions against Spain that would have boiled over whether or not America did anything against Spain.
 
Who's going to make them leave? The western allies let Russia fall to communism so they were clearly sick of war at this point, all Japan has to do is call their bluff and sit tight. And this wouldn't be a Japan that tried to go after China when everyone is looking elsewhere (thought that may still happen) this would be a Japan that played a much bigger role in taking down Germany and her most important colony.
I guess when you say the Allies "let" Russia fall to communism the expeditionary forces don't count? Around 10,000 British and Empire troops and the same number of Americans were in these forces, 70,000 Japanese, 20,000 Greeks and an assortment of other nationalities.

And I agree it's likely that the ANZACs will beat Japan to the Philippines in the first place. As for the Philippines going independent, even the egalitarian Americans weren't ready for that in 1918.
 
It's good to know that Japan's fate is sealed forty years before they even declare war on America!

If America doesn't occupy the Philippines odds are either Japan winds up with them, Germany winds up with them (later conquered by Japan), or they gain independence. Any of the three scenarios sees America far more distant from China (both physically and politically) than OTL.

If the Japanese fight Spain over the Philippines prior to the Russo-Japanese War, the war is most likely avoided (Japan will be busy with a Philippine insurrection) and has massive butterflies in Korea, Mongolia, Tibet, Russo-British relations and the Bosnian Crisis. If Japan gain them after the Great War then all of post-war Japanese politics is in fluxes with the additional of a new very important colony. If they're independent Japan can either co-opt or coerce them into their plans for an Asian hegemony and America probably doesn't care.
Good points. I like the fact that a coal dust explosion doesn't take place (some work detail did their job well) in 1898 could lead to General MacArthur being the commander of the Presidio in SF in 1948 rather than Shogun in Tokyo..and millions of Japanese may live in peace and contentment rather than die in firestorms and starvation.

Of course a modern Japan without the WWII loss means no MacArthur constitution mandating an army and navy Defense Force.

The flock of butterflies on this one is staggering.
 
I'm fairly certain that Japan would not get a "German" Philippines at Versailles. Even if they had occupied it before the American entry into WW1 then the mandate would probably go to the USA, Britain or Australia because of the way Japan was treated at Versailles (see Shandong).
Who would go to war with Japan over the Philippines if their army and naval forces in Manila and stationed about the islands refused to go along with the US or Br Mandate? Possession is 9 points of the law...and when they have guns and battle cruisers that defeated Russia and now helped defeat Germany I just don't see the Philippines being worth the effort. There wasn't a lot of support in 1899 to take the islands or the insurrection fight afterward...would we want to take on the Japanese?
 
I guess when you say the Allies "let" Russia fall to communism the expeditionary forces don't count? Around 10,000 British and Empire troops and the same number of Americans were in these forces, 70,000 Japanese, 20,000 Greeks and an assortment of other nationalities.

And I agree it's likely that the ANZACs will beat Japan to the Philippines in the first place. As for the Philippines going independent, even the egalitarian Americans weren't ready for that in 1918.
But they sat on their frozen butts instead of taking a real active role in coordinating with the White Armies.
 
Agreed. America was clearly intent on colonizing Hawaii long be the Maine exploded in January 1898.

American soldiers invaded Hawaii in 1887 and forced the Native dynasty to accept a constitution
that made non whites second class citizens.
Americans who believed "manifest destiny" were advocating further steps throughout the 1890s.
The American formed "Committee of Public Safety" used US Marines to overthrow the native Kingdom in 1893
and placed US born foreigners as the government of the "Republic of Hawaii".

The USA government first proposed a formal occupation of Hawaii in 1896 when a new president adopted the idea.
He began "negotiations" with the Free Republic of Hawaii in 1897.
In fact a treaty was first signed in June 1897 but ratification in Congress was delayed.

Instead an even harsher forced annexation was proposed and passed by the Senate July 6, 1898.
Hawaii was occupied in the August.
My point is..without our bases and business interests in the Philippines we would not get as involved in China, we may not embargo up a storm against Japan's actions in China, and in fact, with our fleet sitting in San Diego a Japanese move on the DEI might not be violent or strongly opposed by the US. Hawaii is a great vacation spot in 1945 for tourists from Japan. And if you want to visit the fleet you can find it in SoCal.
 
And I agree it's likely that the ANZACs will beat Japan to the Philippines in the first place. As for the Philippines going independent, even the egalitarian Americans weren't ready for that in 1918.

Why would we even need America's permission to become independent if they don't intervene on this end of the Pacific in the first place? :p

We rebelled in 1896. America only intervened two years after.
 
Last edited:
Why would we even need America's permission to become independent if they don't intervene on this end of the Pacific in the first place? :p

We rebelled in 1896. America only intervened two years after.

There's a not unreasonable chance that Japan intervenes and aids the rebels, or conquers the place when Spain looks weak.

A lot depends on how the Europeans react to Japanese intervention. In OTL they were pretty owly about its intervention in China so it's tough to say.
 
IMHO Hawaii was going to belong to the USA, all of the factors leading to it were in place. As far as the PI goes, if it goes to Germany between 1898 and WWI I simply don't see Australia being able to take the PI. The Australians (the AIF) were originally scheduled for France, however were used for Gallipoli when that came up. even if no Gallipoli the need for warm bodies in France is still there. The ANZACS simply do not have enough manpower to attack the PI and send the OTL forces to France. The PI are irrelevant, and certainly not worth diverting forces from the main chance. OTOH the Japanese have plenty of troops with very little to do. Taking the German concessions in China won't take much effort, and a couple of large ships with some Marines will do for the German Pacific Islands. Taking the PI from the Germans is well within Japanese capabilities, now what sort of post power transfer situation with the locals and the Japanese (like the Philippine Insurrection OTL) is unclear. Bottom line is that the Japanese would likely be there in possession. Nobody would be inclined to fight them to throw them out, I expect the PI would become a Japanese mandate, like the islands did.
 
OTOH hand both WWI and WWII might be butterflied away and the Nazis are almost certainly are. The Japanese might also be less militant due to butterflies.
Without TR to broker the peace, the Russo-Japanese war may go differently (I seem to recall that Teddy favored Russia; if he isn't there, perhaps the Japanese take more territory and are more satisfied with their conquests?)
 
Last edited:
Without TR to broker the peace, the Russo-Japanese war may go differently (I seem to recall that Teddy favored Russia; if he isn't there, perhaps the Japanese take more territory and are more satisfied with their conquests?

You recall wrong, all TR did was provide face for the Japanese for not getting more out of the deal. Japan was going broke, it got basically all it was going to get at that point. It either makes peace or goes bankrupt.
 
Without TR to broker the peace, the Russo-Japanese war may go differently (I seem to recall that Teddy favored Russia; if he isn't there, perhaps the Japanese take more territory and are more satisfied with their conquests?)

That depends on the Philippines, if Japan decides to go south rather than north the whole conflict is butterflied away.

You recall wrong, all TR did was provide face for the Japanese for not getting more out of the deal. Japan was going broke, it got basically all it was going to get at that point. It either makes peace or goes bankrupt.

This true, but Japan felt betrayed at the negotiations and felt that they were entitled to more territory or reparations. If TR isn't there they might get a better peace (though I have my doubts).
 
Without TR to broker the peace, the Russo-Japanese war may go differently (I seem to recall that Teddy favored Russia; if he isn't there, perhaps the Japanese take more territory and are more satisfied with their conquests?)
The missing TR because of no war with Spain reallys ets of the butterflies. Progressives don't accomplish as much, Panama Canal later or somewhere else, affect on FDR (which sets off another flock of butterflies), environment suffers, no Great White Fleet, ....who goes up on Mount Rushmore in his palce...BUTTERFLIES!!!
 
we need a dislike button. I'd push it with vigor on historyfelon's post.

we (USA) have extreme interests in Hawaii, and are taking it sooner or later. We have extreme interests in Asia, and aren't just sitting around watching Japan run roughshod over anything it wants there, threatening our interests. We are not, sans (oops, submit button hit by accident) major major POD signing up on any treaties other than for trade at that time.

basically, take historyfelon's post and put me on the opposite side of the fence.
You might want to defend your position since it seems you're the only one that holds it.
 
Who would go to war with Japan over the Philippines if their army and naval forces in Manila and stationed about the islands refused to go along with the US or Br Mandate? Possession is 9 points of the law...and when they have guns and battle cruisers that defeated Russia and now helped defeat Germany I just don't see the Philippines being worth the effort. There wasn't a lot of support in 1899 to take the islands or the insurrection fight afterward...would we want to take on the Japanese?


Maybe not over the Philippines but war with Japan offers some advantages. The allies are all broke and Japan has a lot of money having sat out the war for the most part. She's also relatively easy pickings. A simple naval battle with no trenches and mass casualties.

So Italy, France and Britain get it into their heads to send a "Dear Japan" note- a modern rerun of the Triple Intervention in 1895. Britain gets the Philippines, France Taiwan, Korea is Italian, leave China and assume our debts or we will sink your fleet and really impose terms

It could happen especially with America not at the peace table
 

bguy

Donor
As far as the PI goes, if it goes to Germany between 1898 and WWI I simply don't see Australia being able to take the PI. The Australians (the AIF) were originally scheduled for France, however were used for Gallipoli when that came up. even if no Gallipoli the need for warm bodies in France is still there.

If the Germans have a meaningful presence in the Philippines then they are obviously going to have less troops for France, so there is corresponding less need for Australian troops in France.

The ANZACS simply do not have enough manpower to attack the PI and send the OTL forces to France.

If the Philippines fall in 1915 then the ANZACs can be available in France by 1916.

The PI are irrelevant, and certainly not worth diverting forces from the main chance.

If the Germans hold the Phillipines then they have a prime naval base at Subic Bay from where they threaten the Entente concessions in China, Singapore, Malaysia and French Indochina. Thus the British and French both have strong reason to want to grab the Philippines. And the British (and even the French) weren't exactly shy about diverting troops from France IOTL. How many hundreds of thousands of Entente troops were sent to Gallipoli, Salonika, Africa and the Mesopotamia and Palestine fronts IOTL? If the British were willing to dispatch all those troops to secondary theaters why wouldn't they be willing to send troops to neutralize the most important German colony which is within striking distance of all their Pacific holdings?

There are also likely to be nasty political repercussions in Australia and New Zealand if their troops are sent off to fight in France or the Middle East instead of neutralizing the large German colony in the Pacific.

OTOH the Japanese have plenty of troops with very little to do. Taking the German concessions in China won't take much effort, and a couple of large ships with some Marines will do for the German Pacific Islands. Taking the PI from the Germans is well within Japanese capabilities, now what sort of post power transfer situation with the locals and the Japanese (like the Philippine Insurrection OTL) is unclear. Bottom line is that the Japanese would likely be there in possession. Nobody would be inclined to fight them to throw them out, I expect the PI would become a Japanese mandate, like the islands did.

Japan isn't going to commit the troops to take the Philippines (which will probably involve a much tougher fight than Japan faced from the Germans IOTL) unless they get guarantees from the British that Japan will be allowed to keep the islands after the war. And the Australians (and the Americans for that matter) will go nuts if Britain makes those guarantees.
 
Top