The Cubans were already revolting and the US was already edging towards intervention. Perceived threats to American Sugar interests in Cuba and the desire for stability in the Caribbean were the main drivers of the war for America. Without the flashpoint Maine, it may have taken the US longer to enter the Spanish American War but I believe that in the end it still would have.
Without the Maine, US public opinion would have been less jingoistically behind the War but lower level support was already there. Cuba's history is unlikely to change much what with the Teller Amendment not being related to the Maine.
What I think could change is the seizure of the Philippines. Without the General provocation of the Maine's perceived destruction by the Spanish, the scope of the war would be narrower and I think that the Americans would have a harder time justifying the taking of Asian colonies.
True enough, Mckinley had already tried to pass the annexation of Hawaii in 1897 but it failed in the senate, so they had to wait until July of 1898 to annex it when they tried again. Not to mention how the US forced Japan to open up before the civil war. The Phillipines were useful for power projection but weren't the sole reason for US East Asian presence.we need a dislike button. I'd push it with vigor on historyfelon's post.
we (USA) have extreme interests in Hawaii, and are taking it sooner or later. We have extreme interests in Asia, and aren't just sitting around watching Japan run roughshod over anything it wants there, threatening our interests. We are not, sans (oops, submit button hit by accident) major major POD signing up on any treaties other than for trade at that time.
basically, take historyfelon's post and put me on the opposite side of the fence.
Good points, but let's run this scenario... US doesn't go to war with Spain. Spain and US negotiate an end to the troubles in Cuba, the US makes Cuba a 'protectorate'..perhaps even gets Puerto Rico. Philippines stays Spanish, but rebels there are aided by Germany. Spain loses control of the islands to the rebels, but Germany pulls a McKinley on them and occupies the islands. World War One comes along and the Philippines fall to the Japanese.we need a dislike button. I'd push it with vigor on historyfelon's post.
we (USA) have extreme interests in Hawaii, and are taking it sooner or later. We have extreme interests in Asia, and aren't just sitting around watching Japan run roughshod over anything it wants there, threatening our interests. We are not, sans (oops, submit button hit by accident) major major POD signing up on any treaties other than for trade at that time.
basically, take historyfelon's post and put me on the opposite side of the fence.
I gave Peter one scenario, let's try this one. No USS Maine explosion, no war with Spain, no war with Spain means no San Juan Hill for TR to charge up and he remains Ass't. Sec of the Navy..he isn't VP when McKinley is murdered...so no Panama Canal until 20 years later. We are in even a weaker position when Japan goes into China and Japan is in a much stronger position (having gained the Philippines after WWI.True enough, Mckinley had already tried to pass the annexation of Hawaii in 1897 but it failed in the senate, so they had to wait until July of 1898 to annex it when they tried again. Not to mention how the US forced Japan to open up before the civil war. The Phillipines were useful for power projection but weren't the sole reason for US East Asian presence.
I gave Peter one scenario, let's try this one. No USS Maine explosion, no war with Spain, no war with Spain means no San Juan Hill for TR to charge up and he remains Ass't. Sec of the Navy..he isn't VP when McKinley is murdered...so no Panama Canal until 20 years later. We are in even a weaker position when Japan goes into China and Japan is in a much stronger position (having gained the Philippines after WWI.
Hawai'i becomes a defensive base rather than an offensive one. No war with Japan.
Question though: How did the Japanese get ahold of the Phillipines? As far as I remember there wasn't any real reason for the Spanish to lose them in the wake of WWI since they were neutral, unless you're talking about in the wake of the Spanish Civil War they take that as a pretext to seize them, though by that point I'm pretty sure that they've lost their good relations with Britain, what with the occupation of Manchuria and Rape of Nanking happening prior to the end of that conflict.I gave Peter one scenario, let's try this one. No USS Maine explosion, no war with Spain, no war with Spain means no San Juan Hill for TR to charge up and he remains Ass't. Sec of the Navy..he isn't VP when McKinley is murdered...so no Panama Canal until 20 years later. We are in even a weaker position when Japan goes into China and Japan is in a much stronger position (having gained the Philippines after WWI.
Hawai'i becomes a defensive base rather than an offensive one. No war with Japan.
One of the reasons that McKinley decided to "protect" the Philippines was because he thought if we didn't do something with them one of European powers..France, Britain..possibly Germany (since they felt they were short changed in the Scramble for Africa) would seize them. In my scenario I'd have the Germans murder tens of thousands of Filipinos instead of us. So by the time of the Russo-Japanese War the Germans have control of the islands...as much as we ever did.Question though: How did the Japanese get ahold of the Phillipines? As far as I remember there wasn't any real reason for the Spanish to lose them in the wake of WWI since they were neutral, unless you're talking about in the wake of the Spanish Civil War they take that as a pretext to seize them, though by that point I'm pretty sure that they've lost their good relations with Britain, what with the occupation of Manchuria and Rape of Nanking happening prior to the end of that conflict.
Yep. No solid reason for us to get involved. The Chinese are on their own. Maybe Britain wants to get more involved...but they have Germany to worry about. Forget France. Japan can even put pressure on the Dutch to do the same thing the French did in early '41...and they gain the East Indies without firing a shot. That might be an overreach..the Aussies would get spooked and Britain would have to do something.It sucks to be Chinese in TTL. Of course that isn't necessarily bad from a story telling point of view.
Yep. No solid reason for us to get involved. The Chinese are on their own. Maybe Britain wants to get more involved...but they have Germany to worry about. Forget France. Japan can even put pressure on the Dutch to do the same thing the French did in early '41...and they gain the East Indies without firing a shot. That might be an overreach..the Aussies would get spooked and Britain would have to do something.
Whatever, the US starts to get more involved with the Germans and FDR (if he is president...because since TR never was president...) is pushing the nation to back Britain... If the Japanese think they can get what they need without American interference then no Pearl Harbor...and no Hiroshima. Instead we drop it on Nuremberg, that is if the war lasts long enough for us to have gotten that far in development.
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It's amazing how many things we need to take into account because of one change. I think Japan would still be militant...they now have a bigger empire to control. OR...they might not feel the need or have the ability to go into China. hmmmmOTOH hand both WWI and WWII might be butterflied away and the Nazis are almost certainly are. The Japanese might also be less militant due to butterflies.
It's amazing how many things we need to take into account because of one change. I think Japan would still be militant...they now have a bigger empire to control. OR...they might not feel the need or have the ability to go into China. hmmmm
Which than either eliminates WWII altogether or it still happens but with smarter and more talented people in charge of Germany...probably at a later date. Perhaps it might be Germany and Britain and France against Soviet Union. Oh..this is fun.I think the Nazis would be gone almost for sure. They needed almost everything to go their way to gain power.
we (USA) have extreme interests in Hawaii, and are taking it sooner or later.