USS Maine does not explode

Supposing for whatever reason the USS Maine does not explode but instead has no problems with her tour of service before 1900, what is the fate of Cuba and how does this reflect on history?
 
The Cubans were already revolting and the US was already edging towards intervention. Perceived threats to American Sugar interests in Cuba and the desire for stability in the Caribbean were the main drivers of the war for America. Without the flashpoint Maine, it may have taken the US longer to enter the Spanish American War but I believe that in the end it still would have.

Without the Maine, US public opinion would have been less jingoistically behind the War but lower level support was already there. Cuba's history is unlikely to change much what with the Teller Amendment not being related to the Maine.

What I think could change is the seizure of the Philippines. Without the General provocation of the Maine's perceived destruction by the Spanish, the scope of the war would be narrower and I think that the Americans would have a harder time justifying the taking of Asian colonies.
 
The Cubans were already revolting and the US was already edging towards intervention. Perceived threats to American Sugar interests in Cuba and the desire for stability in the Caribbean were the main drivers of the war for America. Without the flashpoint Maine, it may have taken the US longer to enter the Spanish American War but I believe that in the end it still would have.

Without the Maine, US public opinion would have been less jingoistically behind the War but lower level support was already there. Cuba's history is unlikely to change much what with the Teller Amendment not being related to the Maine.

What I think could change is the seizure of the Philippines. Without the General provocation of the Maine's perceived destruction by the Spanish, the scope of the war would be narrower and I think that the Americans would have a harder time justifying the taking of Asian colonies.

My guess is Hearst finds something else to blow out of proportion and little changes.
 
If we don't go to war with Spain, or do but didn't have the "Pearl Harbor Moment" of the Maine explosion, then, in my opinion, ther is no Atomic Bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Without a US presence in the Philippines and Guam we have a much smaller presence in China. We may not even seize the Hawai'i. Without our major involvement in the Far East there is no reason for us to come to blows with Japan..and may actually have a treaty with them, joining the Anglo-Japanese Alliance after TR and the Treaty of Portsmouth.
 
we need a dislike button. I'd push it with vigor on historyfelon's post.

we (USA) have extreme interests in Hawaii, and are taking it sooner or later. We have extreme interests in Asia, and aren't just sitting around watching Japan run roughshod over anything it wants there, threatening our interests. We are not, sans (oops, submit button hit by accident) major major POD signing up on any treaties other than for trade at that time.

basically, take historyfelon's post and put me on the opposite side of the fence.
 
Until the Maine forced McKinley's hand, the American government was trying to use negotiations and other tactics to mollify public sentiment against Spain while buying the Spanish government more time to win the war. In private, McKinley's administration urged the Spanish to win quickly.
 
we need a dislike button. I'd push it with vigor on historyfelon's post.

we (USA) have extreme interests in Hawaii, and are taking it sooner or later. We have extreme interests in Asia, and aren't just sitting around watching Japan run roughshod over anything it wants there, threatening our interests. We are not, sans (oops, submit button hit by accident) major major POD signing up on any treaties other than for trade at that time.

basically, take historyfelon's post and put me on the opposite side of the fence.
True enough, Mckinley had already tried to pass the annexation of Hawaii in 1897 but it failed in the senate, so they had to wait until July of 1898 to annex it when they tried again. Not to mention how the US forced Japan to open up before the civil war. The Phillipines were useful for power projection but weren't the sole reason for US East Asian presence.
 
we need a dislike button. I'd push it with vigor on historyfelon's post.

we (USA) have extreme interests in Hawaii, and are taking it sooner or later. We have extreme interests in Asia, and aren't just sitting around watching Japan run roughshod over anything it wants there, threatening our interests. We are not, sans (oops, submit button hit by accident) major major POD signing up on any treaties other than for trade at that time.

basically, take historyfelon's post and put me on the opposite side of the fence.
Good points, but let's run this scenario... US doesn't go to war with Spain. Spain and US negotiate an end to the troubles in Cuba, the US makes Cuba a 'protectorate'..perhaps even gets Puerto Rico. Philippines stays Spanish, but rebels there are aided by Germany. Spain loses control of the islands to the rebels, but Germany pulls a McKinley on them and occupies the islands. World War One comes along and the Philippines fall to the Japanese.

Now, no matter what the Japanese do in China (and remember they sank the Panay and we did nothing) it will be much more difficult for us to directly aid China, not to mention, now the Japanese have less reason to attack us because we have no bases west of Pearl Harbor. We may not have even moved the 7th Fleet to Pearl...it may still be home ported in San Diego.

We are not going to go to war with Japan over China, unless we threaten to stop their move towards the East Indies..and we have a very weak hand to play in that case.
 
True enough, Mckinley had already tried to pass the annexation of Hawaii in 1897 but it failed in the senate, so they had to wait until July of 1898 to annex it when they tried again. Not to mention how the US forced Japan to open up before the civil war. The Phillipines were useful for power projection but weren't the sole reason for US East Asian presence.
I gave Peter one scenario, let's try this one. No USS Maine explosion, no war with Spain, no war with Spain means no San Juan Hill for TR to charge up and he remains Ass't. Sec of the Navy..he isn't VP when McKinley is murdered...so no Panama Canal until 20 years later. We are in even a weaker position when Japan goes into China and Japan is in a much stronger position (having gained the Philippines after WWI.

Hawai'i becomes a defensive base rather than an offensive one. No war with Japan.
 
I gave Peter one scenario, let's try this one. No USS Maine explosion, no war with Spain, no war with Spain means no San Juan Hill for TR to charge up and he remains Ass't. Sec of the Navy..he isn't VP when McKinley is murdered...so no Panama Canal until 20 years later. We are in even a weaker position when Japan goes into China and Japan is in a much stronger position (having gained the Philippines after WWI.

Hawai'i becomes a defensive base rather than an offensive one. No war with Japan.

It sucks to be Chinese in TTL. Of course that isn't necessarily bad from a story telling point of view.
 
I gave Peter one scenario, let's try this one. No USS Maine explosion, no war with Spain, no war with Spain means no San Juan Hill for TR to charge up and he remains Ass't. Sec of the Navy..he isn't VP when McKinley is murdered...so no Panama Canal until 20 years later. We are in even a weaker position when Japan goes into China and Japan is in a much stronger position (having gained the Philippines after WWI.

Hawai'i becomes a defensive base rather than an offensive one. No war with Japan.
Question though: How did the Japanese get ahold of the Phillipines? As far as I remember there wasn't any real reason for the Spanish to lose them in the wake of WWI since they were neutral, unless you're talking about in the wake of the Spanish Civil War they take that as a pretext to seize them, though by that point I'm pretty sure that they've lost their good relations with Britain, what with the occupation of Manchuria and Rape of Nanking happening prior to the end of that conflict.
 
Question though: How did the Japanese get ahold of the Phillipines? As far as I remember there wasn't any real reason for the Spanish to lose them in the wake of WWI since they were neutral, unless you're talking about in the wake of the Spanish Civil War they take that as a pretext to seize them, though by that point I'm pretty sure that they've lost their good relations with Britain, what with the occupation of Manchuria and Rape of Nanking happening prior to the end of that conflict.
One of the reasons that McKinley decided to "protect" the Philippines was because he thought if we didn't do something with them one of European powers..France, Britain..possibly Germany (since they felt they were short changed in the Scramble for Africa) would seize them. In my scenario I'd have the Germans murder tens of thousands of Filipinos instead of us. So by the time of the Russo-Japanese War the Germans have control of the islands...as much as we ever did.

What do you think?
 
It sucks to be Chinese in TTL. Of course that isn't necessarily bad from a story telling point of view.
Yep. No solid reason for us to get involved. The Chinese are on their own. Maybe Britain wants to get more involved...but they have Germany to worry about. Forget France. Japan can even put pressure on the Dutch to do the same thing the French did in early '41...and they gain the East Indies without firing a shot. That might be an overreach..the Aussies would get spooked and Britain would have to do something.

Whatever, the US starts to get more involved with the Germans and FDR (if he is president...because since TR never was president...) is pushing the nation to back Britain... If the Japanese think they can get what they need without American interference then no Pearl Harbor...and no Hiroshima. Instead we drop it on Nuremberg, that is if the war lasts long enough for us to have gotten that far in development.


.
 
Yep. No solid reason for us to get involved. The Chinese are on their own. Maybe Britain wants to get more involved...but they have Germany to worry about. Forget France. Japan can even put pressure on the Dutch to do the same thing the French did in early '41...and they gain the East Indies without firing a shot. That might be an overreach..the Aussies would get spooked and Britain would have to do something.

Whatever, the US starts to get more involved with the Germans and FDR (if he is president...because since TR never was president...) is pushing the nation to back Britain... If the Japanese think they can get what they need without American interference then no Pearl Harbor...and no Hiroshima. Instead we drop it on Nuremberg, that is if the war lasts long enough for us to have gotten that far in development.


.

OTOH hand both WWI and WWII might be butterflied away and the Nazis are almost certainly are. The Japanese might also be less militant due to butterflies.
 
OTOH hand both WWI and WWII might be butterflied away and the Nazis are almost certainly are. The Japanese might also be less militant due to butterflies.
It's amazing how many things we need to take into account because of one change. I think Japan would still be militant...they now have a bigger empire to control. OR...they might not feel the need or have the ability to go into China. hmmmm
 
It's amazing how many things we need to take into account because of one change. I think Japan would still be militant...they now have a bigger empire to control. OR...they might not feel the need or have the ability to go into China. hmmmm

I think the Nazis would be gone almost for sure. They needed almost everything to go their way to gain power.
 
I think the Nazis would be gone almost for sure. They needed almost everything to go their way to gain power.
Which than either eliminates WWII altogether or it still happens but with smarter and more talented people in charge of Germany...probably at a later date. Perhaps it might be Germany and Britain and France against Soviet Union. Oh..this is fun.
 
It's good to know that Japan's fate is sealed forty years before they even declare war on America!

If America doesn't occupy the Philippines odds are either Japan winds up with them, Germany winds up with them (later conquered by Japan), or they gain independence. Any of the three scenarios sees America far more distant from China (both physically and politically) than OTL.

If the Japanese fight Spain over the Philippines prior to the Russo-Japanese War, the war is most likely avoided (Japan will be busy with a Philippine insurrection) and has massive butterflies in Korea, Mongolia, Tibet, Russo-British relations and the Bosnian Crisis. If Japan gain them after the Great War then all of post-war Japanese politics is in fluxes with the additional of a new very important colony. If they're independent Japan can either co-opt or coerce them into their plans for an Asian hegemony and America probably doesn't care.
 
we (USA) have extreme interests in Hawaii, and are taking it sooner or later.


Agreed. America was clearly intent on colonizing Hawaii long be the Maine exploded in January 1898.

American soldiers invaded Hawaii in 1887 and forced the Native dynasty to accept a constitution
that made non whites second class citizens.
Americans who believed "manifest destiny" were advocating further steps throughout the 1890s.
The American formed "Committee of Public Safety" used US Marines to overthrow the native Kingdom in 1893
and placed US born foreigners as the government of the "Republic of Hawaii".

The USA government first proposed a formal occupation of Hawaii in 1896 when a new president adopted the idea.
He began "negotiations" with the Free Republic of Hawaii in 1897.
In fact a treaty was first signed in June 1897 but ratification in Congress was delayed.

Instead an even harsher forced annexation was proposed and passed by the Senate July 6, 1898.
Hawaii was occupied in the August.
 
Last edited:
I'm fairly certain that Japan would not get a "German" Philippines at Versailles. Even if they had occupied it before the American entry into WW1 then the mandate would probably go to the USA, Britain or Australia because of the way Japan was treated at Versailles (see Shandong).
 
Top