Round One, Graf Spee is favored. Indianapolis would do better in a night action than in daylight.
Round Two. A US victory. The USN squadron is more powerful than the historical RN squadron. Graf Spee has a good chance of not surviving this battle.
Round Three. Easy US victory. Best chance for the Germans is to split up and run away. USS Alaska can even handle both German ships on her own, though would suffer more damage without Indianapolis present.
Further ideas. Replace the Indianapolis (or the Exeter in the historical battle) with a RN County class heavy cruiser. Is there a substantial difference in the outcome?
Replace the Indianapolis in the three rounds with a Baltimore class heavy cruiser. Or have a meeting between Baltimore and Scheer in 1943. Who wins that one?
Have a battle between Graf Spee and Hipper. Or the three Deutschlands versus the three Hippers for a squadron action.