Some notes:
-The loss rate of the B-29 “initially” was due far more to mechanical issues than Japanese action. Why? Because at 30,000ft the Japanese had a difficult time reaching them. The problem was that at 30,000ft over Japan a full bomb drop could and often did miss the target CITY by a mile or more! So LeMay made a very unpopular decision to bring them down to 10,000ft or less for the bombing runs. Accuracy and casualties went up drastically but the former offset the latter sufficiently. A “B-36” or “B-35” dropping from high altitude is not going to do much better so unless they too come down to a reasonable altitude…
-The history of air-to-air refueling is quite fascinating and quite arguably a missed opportunity but keep in mind DESPITE a lot of work by both British and American pioneers by the outbreak of WWII the most advanced system was the British “grapple-line/looped-hose” system seen in the above photo of the B-50 “Lucky Lady II” during its record breaking around the world flight in 1949.(This was the planned system to be used for the Tiger Force Lancaster and Lincoln Bombers to refuel from Halifax tankers. In theory.
(
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerial_refueling)
Note the procedure is that ‘tanker’ trails a steel cable which is shot at with a grappling hook-and-line’ by a bomber crew member hanging out hatch in the bomber. Once they grapple catches the line it’s drawn back into the bomber until the end of the fuel line in aboard and then it is manually attached to the fuel distribution system. This system was used successfully during 16 test flights in 1939 but use was deemed inefficient for the war in Europe and work suspended till it was suggested for Tiger Force.
The USAF bought some of the systems post-war and modified them so that most of the operation was automated so that they aircraft didn’t need to come down to low altitude to protect the crew from depressurization. It was not considered a ‘practical’ system though.
This was true in England as well as the system had to many drawbacks and quite obviously had no utility for smaller aircraft that lacked extra crewmembers to perform the multiple manual operations. By 1949 they had perfected the “probe-and-drogue’ system enough so that a modified Meteor fighter flew for over 12 hours in one flight taking on fuel at regular intervals during 10 rendezvous with modified Lancaster tanker aircraft. A similar system was used operationally during the Korean war by the USAF due to the number of forward bases that had been overrun. In 1948 Chief of Staff of the USAF, General Carl Spaatz, (we’ve heard of him before

) made air-to-air refueling research a priority which lead to the development of the flying boom system which is operationally capable of a very much higher rate of fuel than probe-and-drogue or any ‘hose’ based system.
LeMay pushed the development of the flying boom in the late 40s so one could suppose that given the distances in the Pacific and lack of carrier aviation due to the loss of the carriers at PH he and Spaatz come to the conclusion that the technology is required sooner rather than later. Fighters can have probes located outside the propeller arc, (the F-84s that used the probe-and-drogue system in Korea had probes on one outboard wing tank for example) though pilot fatigue is a major factor.
Pushing it forward as noted the “grapple/hose” system is available in a usable form by 1939 but it still needs work to be operationally usable. Then there’s the infrastructure and added aircraft needed for ‘tankers’ and most island airfields didn’t have the infrastructure and/or logistics to handle very many large aircraft till much later in the war. (Your ratio tends to be about one tanker per four large aircraft with the majority of your fuel going to the fourth aircraft since it was the last one in line. Keep in mind your first aircraft is now burned off a good percentage of the fuel you transferred due to have to wait on that fourth aircraft)
I’ve done some notes on an ‘advanced’ WWII timeline outline where as part of this the then Major Spaatz is relaxing at home after the “Question Mark” mission only to notice some hummingbirds and get a wild idea…
Randy