USA Joins the CP in WWI

I came across an interesting article of late wherein it was stated that unlike what I had previously thought, the American entry into WWI on the side of the Allies wasn't a foregone conclusion. Quite the opposite in fact, and it was only with Wilson's election campaign in 1916 that American opinion began to shift.

Thus, what if America had decided to go to war against Britain/France/Russia instead of with them?
 
If this were to happen, long story short, the Entente is unbelievably screwed. Its economy collapses in a few months, France and Russia fall to Germany in short order, and the UK is forced to surrender to a German-American blockade. A US-German cold war follows and the race for the bomb is on.
 
I came across an interesting article of late wherein it was stated that unlike what I had previously thought, the American entry into WWI on the side of the Allies wasn't a foregone conclusion. Quite the opposite in fact, and it was only with Wilson's election campaign in 1916 that American opinion began to shift.

Thus, what if America had decided to go to war against Britain/France/Russia instead of with them?

It probably was a forgone conclusion in fact.

The US private sector had loaned heavily to the Entente to fund their war effort, US farmers and factories were making significant profits selling goods to feed and arm the Entente war effort and in any case, the US traded more with Britain, France, Russia, the Dominions + minor allies than they did with the Central Powers.

Simply put, the money in America was on the side of an Entente victory. For the US political system to then decide to go against all of that would piss off people from the very bottom to the very top of the economic heap.

Add this to the risk of opposing the Entente. The US was close to Britain in naval power at this point, that means that while victory at sea was likely if they could coordinate with the Germans, if things went badly, the US could see her fleet decimated and a partial blockade (I say partial because Britain simply cannot blockade the entire US coastline at this point) disrupt her trade.

Intervening against Germany was much lower risk than intervening for Germany and the economic costs of the former were far lower.

Either way, the US would win, so why win the expensive way?

fasquardon
 
I think that a more aggressive, expansionist US could be convinced by Germany to join the CPs in exchange for Entente territories throughout the Americas.

In order to have that sort of political attitude prevailing in the US I think you'd have to have the US get in a brush-up (not necessarily a war or even a violent incident, just something that sows distrust) with the UK or France either during the ACW or during the Venezuelan Crisis.

This would take the cannon of American jingoism and turn it on Entente interests rather than aligning with them as per OTL.

As for post-war relations between Germany and the US, I don't think that the two would be actual enemies-- The US-Soviet rivalry OTL manifested itself in conflicts and events around the world, but could be said to have arisen from both ideological differences and competition over dominance in Europe.

After WW1, Germany and the US will have none of those conflicts. Germany is liable to liberalize following WW1, and even if it moves towards it's pre-war political disposition or towards military dictatorship, it will arise as the defender of Europe from the forces of communism, forming an important buffer between Communist Russia and the rest of Europe. In such a situation, the US would have nothing to do with Europe whatsoever, though the American public and policymakers would probably prefer having German soldiers face off the communists at the gates of Narva to American destroyers picketing Europe from Narvik to Gibraltar.

The only place where American and German interests would have any chance of clashing would be in the Pacific-- and even there, Germany probably sells or loses Tsingtao to the Japanese, while it could easily opt to sell the remainder of its Pacific territories to the United States in exchange for money which could be invested in infrastructure improvements in Germany's new Eastern European empire or to fund a few additional army corps to aid in the defense of that empire.

All told, America and Germany would likely have little to do with each other in this timeline-- Europe (and possibly Africa) would be firmly within the sphere of Germany, whilst the Americas and the Asia-Pacific would be dominated by the United States. At worst, the two countries would be essentially indifferent to each other, while in a best-case scenario he two countries might cooperate to contain and stamp out communism world wide. As two of the largest great powers in the world, Germany and the US would probably be rivals in the Olympics and in scientific endeavors such as the Space Race (the race for the atomic bomb included), but there would be little to no animosity between them and no reason for them to be rivals geo-politically.
 
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You'd really need a change at the very beginning of the war or before, because after even pretty early on America was tied up with the Entente.
 

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The only way I can imagine this happening is if the Germans don't do USW in 1917 and let Wilson handle the banks as he was doing, i.e. refusing to backstop unsecured loans to the Entente, and then the US opts to break the blockade the British had by force to signal to them it was time to negotiate or the US would start asserting its own interests. When they try to do that the RN and USN get into a naval incident that escalates into a naval war; the US isn't part of the CPs, but like IOTL is an associate power.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Neutral US is much more plausible than CP US. Just butterfly away unrestricted submarine warfare and US don't join the war. Another way is to get the US heavily entrenched in the Mexican Revolution, and thus not being open for overseas adventures.
 
I also don't see a US-German cold war.

As for the peace, I could see issues there- the US would want a fairly gentle peace, Germany would want blood.

My guess is the US would want naval limits on Britain, declaration of blockades as illegal warfare, and making sure loans are repaid (maybe holding colonies as collateral)- they wouldn't be interested in a French-screw, whereas the Germans would want a reverse Versailles. I think middle ground would be reached- Germany would need the US as a friend.

I don't see Canada to the US unless Canada attacked for some reason. Newfoundland to the US is likely though.
 
It pretty much was a forgone conclusion in 1916. The US had backed the Entente to win financially and it was easier to buy and sell to the Entente as they controlled the Atlantic. Worst case scenario the US is neutral.
 
Just the US staying completely neutral (Not fake neutral by selling all that stuff to Entente) would make CP win.
 
What would facilitate the U.S entry into WWI on the CP side

A US Chilean conflict in the 1880s or 1890s, where Chile is supported by the UK, alternate Venezuelan crisis or a myriad of other events could lead to very anti-British feeling in America. If Maximilian I becomes Emperor of Mexico, it would sour relations with France, and if Russia doesn't sell Alaska to America, it would give the U.S a territorial dispute with Russia. Perhaps change up the Irish invasion of Canada to be more prolonged and bloody with perhaps U.S acquiescence or ignorance of the plan until it was too late, which would probably lead to war. If these were to occur the U.S would not invest so heavily in the Entente, b/c of poor relations, and probably worse public opinion. Which would lead the U.S to support the Triple Alliance of the Entente. If Italy stays true than Italian Americans will want to join the CP along with German-Americans and all other immigrant groups who didn't like the Russian Empire. If Roosevelt wins (1912) assuming, OTL or similar Spanish-American war, probably with UK support for Spain(ITTL) than once WWI starts, Teddy will likely prepare for war, and probably join over the pretext of Britain stopping U.S ships headed to Germany or something like that.

(I am in the process of writing a TL like this, I suppose this will be a preview of it, with some spoilers. I haven't written a TL before, but I plan to it along those lines.)

If the U.S joins the war, assuming they have a larger military, which (ITTL) would exist due to animosity with UK and Entente, would certainly win which I don't think is to much of a stretch.
 
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