USA joined the Central Powers ... in 1917

Usually, when this forum discusses a CP USA, it is talked about as if the USA is in the German camp from 1914. However, in OTL, Anglo-American relations were getting testy by 1916 due to the blockade of Germany. The situation only reversed itself due to the stupidity of the Germans with unrestricted submarine warfare.

What if the USA declared war on the Allies as late as 1917? This changes the dynamics quite a bit from our other discussions.
 
I don't it happening. The US would have to side with traditional monarchies Against two democracies.

Entente - A partial democracy (no universal male suffrage), France (not sure) and probaly the most Autocratic state in Europe (russia).

Versus Germany which is also a partial democracy (universal male suffrage but tiered votes), Austria Hungary where the austrian part had universal male suffrage but the Hungarians kept it to the upper class and finally Ottomans who were pretty bad.

Not seeing much difference.
 
I wouldn't go calling the Provisional Government (the government the Entente pretended were in power) democratic...

You also can't compare Germany and the UK and say they're both partial democracies. Wasn't the US only male suffrage until around this time? France is also the traditional bastion of democracy, and yes they're a democracy in 1914. Not to mention that everyone knew the German constitution was one big sham.

What reason does the US have to go to war against the Entente? Against her biggest trading partners, as well as the most dangerous foe (Royal Navy) + only real neighbour. You'd have to have the British pull some colossally stupid moves to push America into the CP camp.
 

SinghKing

Banned
I wouldn't go calling the Provisional Government (the government the Entente pretended were in power) democratic...

You also can't compare Germany and the UK and say they're both partial democracies. Wasn't the US only male suffrage until around this time? France is also the traditional bastion of democracy, and yes they're a democracy in 1914. Not to mention that everyone knew the German constitution was one big sham.

What reason does the US have to go to war against the Entente? Against her biggest trading partners, as well as the most dangerous foe (Royal Navy) + only real neighbour. You'd have to have the British pull some colossally stupid moves to push America into the CP camp.

Well, it could always be the Americans who pull a colossally stupid move and push themselves into the CP camp. Or just chance. For instance, if the British decide to publicly express their displeasure at the USA for the military invasion of Veracruz (instead of merely doing so privately), violating their prior agreement with Woodrow Wilson that the USA would not invade Mexico without a previous warning; which in turn drives the incoming Mexican President Venustiano Carranza into the pockets of the British, and drives the USA to continue supporting Pancho Villa as their chosen ruler of Mexico instead, with the Mexican Revolution effectively developing into a proxy war between the US-backed Villistas and the British/Entente-backed Carranza government.

By 1917, tensions have risen to the stage where conflict is all but inevitable; both Carranza and Villa's factions are on the verge of collapse, engaged in guerilla and trench warfare, and when the Woodrow Wilson finally elects to support the military invasion of Veracruz and Tampico in 1917, in order to take control of Tehuantepec Isthmus and Tampico oil fields (a course of action which he proposed to take at this same stage IOTL), he does so with the popular support of both the American people and Pancho Villa's faction (along with a round of applause and vociferous support from the CP nations, who would by this stage have been courting the USA for some time). As such, faced with such blatant provocation, and after having invested so much in their support of Carranza's regime, the Entente are forced to declare war against the USA on Mexico's behalf

Many other Latin American nations may also view the USA's invasion as sufficient incitement to enter the war on the side of the Entente at this stage; those nations where public anti-American sentiment was greatest after the invasion of Veracruz (Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Uruguay) all seem like likely additions in this scenario. Both Columbia and Panama would be dead-certs to join on the side of the USA and the Central Powers; Venezuela would lean heavily towards the USA and the CP, with the revanchist motive of regaining Guayana Esequiba from the British, and also seems like a likely addition (given its oil reserves, perhaps the most crucial of all in the big picture). And Brazil would probably remain neutral, potentially leaning towards supporting the USA and the CP. And there you have it; TTL's American theater of WW1, becoming active in 1917. Of course, you wouldn't expect TTL's WW1 to be wrapped up by the end of 1918...
 

LordKalvert

Banned
rit

Calling France and Britain "democracies" is a joke. America certainly could have gone to war against both of them if she saw her interests threatened.

America had a large German and Irish community- not very sympathetic to the cause of the English Lords. Then of course, the black vote in America was significant- and given the brutal treatment of the colonies, they aren't going to be very sympathetic to the notion of going to war for democracies that exclude them.

America's entry into the war was very controversial and without USW would never have happened. The British had done a lot to anger the Americans as well (the blockade, the use of the US flag to name but two)

So lets purpose a scenario:

The US decides that the British blockade is ruining their trade and start escorting merchant vessels through it to Germany The British take exception and try to inspect some ships Shots are fired All it would take



The ramifications: a quick end to the war as Britain and France quickly run out of supplies
 
Not to mention that everyone knew the German constitution was one big sham.

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Sure it wasn't fully democratic but how was it a sham. A sham constitution would be Nazi germany.
 
In 1916, there was a serious crisis in US-British relations. The natural effect of the temporary removal of the danger of a US-German war (after the *Sussex* pledge) was to focus US attention on British violations of US neutral rights. And added to this was US resentment of the severity of British measures in crushing the rebellion in Ireland (even some Anglophiles protested). During this period, Wilson, in Arthur S. Link's words, "began to move in a really menacing way to defend alleged American neutral rights in the face of the new British maritime measures. No longer couched in friendly terms, the State Department's protests now accused the London government of 'lawless' conduct and warned that the United States would not tolerate the continuation of 'repeated violations of international law.' To give teeth to these warnings, Wilson obtained legislation from Congress in early September empowering him to deny clearance and port facilities to ships of any nation that discriminated against American commerce, and to use the armed forces to enforce the prohibition. In addition, he persuaded the Federal Reserve Board to warn American bankers to exercise caution in financing the war trade with the Allies. The consequences of this new sternness--a sharp increase in Anglo-American tension and vigorous protests from London--were also a calculated component of Wilson's plan. His grand objective was independent mediation, and such mediation would be possible only from a posture of severe neutrality. In other words, mediation could succeed only if the President convinced the British that he meant to use his powers of retaliation to force them to co-operate, and the Germans that he was determined to compel as much respect for American rights from their enemies as he had from them." https://archive.org/stream/recentamericacon000608mbp/recentamericacon000608mbp_djvu.txt

Link also writes (in *Woodrow Wilson and the Progressive Era 1910-1917*, p. 253):

"It is no exaggeration to say that official Anglo-American relations reached the point of highest tension during the critical period from November, 1916, through the following January. This was true, not only because of the tightening of British economic controls, but also because of the refusal of the British to co-operate in the German and American peace drives. It is perhaps conjectural to say that the two countries were heading toward a break in relations, yet such a catastrophe was not impossible. On November 24, for example, Wilson asked Colonel House to tell Sir Edward Grey that Americans 'were growing more and more impatient with the intolerable conditions of neutrality, their feeling as hot against Great Britain as it was at first against Germany and likely to grow hotter still against an indefinite continuation of the war.'"

Link continues on pp. 256-7: "As soon as his re-election was beyond doubt, the President summoned House to Washington and on November 14 told him that, in order to avert the necessity of American intervention, he planned to demand that the war be ended. House protested that such a move would be highly prejudicial to the Allies. The following morning Wilson announced he had made up his mind to move for peace. But what if Germany agreed to a reasonable settlement and the Allies refused? House asked. In that case, would not the United States drift into a sympathetic alliance with Germany? Might not France and Britain declare war on the United States? If the Allies wanted war, Wilson replied, he would not shrink from it." [1] https://archive.org/stream/woodrowwilsonand007665mbp/woodrowwilsonand007665mbp_djvu.txt

Of course, all this was contingent on Germany agreeing to reasonable peace terms. This may seem ASB territory, but I have often wondered if Germany (besides refraining from unrestricted submarine warfare) could have agreed to reasonable *sounding* (at least to Wilson) peace proposals, which they would nevertheless know the Allies could not accept. (Yet the German government's room for maneuver here was limited: even pseudo-moderation on its part would outrage the more nationalist elements in Germany.) Even if this were possible, though, I doubt that it would lead to an outright war between the US and the Allies--more likely to a neutrality much more favorable to the Central Powers than had been the case previously--e.g., an arms embargo, a ban on loans to belligerents, etc. Of course, the Allies could theoretically reply to this by declaring war on the US but it's hard to see what, other than emotional venting, they would gain by doing so.

[1] "He [Wilson] thought they would not dare resort to this and if they did, they could do this country no serious hurt. I disagreed with him again. I thought Great Britain might conceivably destroy our fleet and land troops from Japan in sufficient numbers to hold certain parts of the United States. He replied they might get a good distance but would have to stop somewhere, to which I agreed." House Diary, November 15, 1916
 
Calling France and Britain "democracies" is a joke. America certainly could have gone to war against both of them if she saw her interests threatened.

America had a large German and Irish community- not very sympathetic to the cause of the English Lords. Then of course, the black vote in America was significant- and given the brutal treatment of the colonies, they aren't going to be very sympathetic to the notion of going to war for democracies that exclude them.

America's entry into the war was very controversial and without USW would never have happened. The British had done a lot to anger the Americans as well (the blockade, the use of the US flag to name but two)

So lets purpose a scenario:

The US decides that the British blockade is ruining their trade and start escorting merchant vessels through it to Germany The British take exception and try to inspect some ships Shots are fired All it would take



The ramifications: a quick end to the war as Britain and France quickly run out of supplies


I agree and disagree with your post.

For one thing US-Brit relations would to have be much worse for a long time for the US backing the CPs.

So the OTL US loans and help for the Entente do not happen. But the US can do for Germany much less than it can do for Britain.

OTL the CP mostly ran on "domestic" money (Kriegsanleihen and so on) - I don't doubt that the Entente can do so too - they might be a little worse off compared to OTL, but they will survive for some time.

Assume the US declares war in early 1917 - or better assume the US does start a buildup in early 1917 in preparation of a DOW in late 1917. If we assume the war went roughly as OTL ( to make it easeier to follow my lineout).

In September 1917 the US declares war on the Entente Nations of France, Italy and UK+Commonwealth. NO DOW on Russia per German request (they are already negotiation Brest Litowsk)

Britian sensing the buildup has transferred the Canadian troops back to Canada (a few Indian and UK troops too).

Th raw US troops meet experienced Veterans - a stalemate results in Winter 1917/1918.

The British advance in Mesopotamia and Palestine stalls duee to less resources available.

In the Pacific the US advances into German Samoa and raids Entente commerce in the Pacific.

OTL Caporetto goes on as scheduled, but no support results for Italy by other Entenet members.

Russia and Romania make peace with CPS (As OTL)

1918 Germany launces an offensive in Spring 1918. Due to the fact that Britain has fewer troops (and less experineced - more Indian and no Cnadians) and there are no US troops arriving to take pressure off the CPs break through and surrround Paris in Summer 1918. In Autum the "Siege of Paris" is finally sucessful and in Late November France asks for terms.

On the American front 1918 sees the US troops gaining slowly the upper hand (they finally get their experience and lack of Support sees the Canandian Front crumbling at the time when Paris falls)

On the seas the US klaunces minor attacks on British held islands in the Carribean and is able to take Bermuda. The RN is stretched thin.

While Britain remains unbeaten things don't look good. Around the turn to 1919 Britain askes for a ceasefire - counting on the warwearinness of Germany, Austria and the OE.

Britain developes and "unbeaten at the battlefiield" mentality ;)

Britain has sensed this developm
 
Given that British assets like Canada and the Caribbean islands are so close, I can't see Wilson deciding not to take any territory.

What could conceivably be taken from 1917-1919? Canada may be too nationalistic by 1917 to completely take at this point.
 
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