I've heard the argument that Russia wasn't a global superpower. Unlike the US, which could project power, fight, and had alliances and could support them most anywhere in the world, the Soviets were a land-empire that could only effectively influence and dominate regions on its borders. Unlike the trans-oceanic American Empire, Russia largely only succeeded on its borders and through the borders of its neighbors.
Russia never wanted to be a Super power -- It simply wanted secure Borders**
** A Secure Borders being defined as -- A Borders with Russian troops stationed on both side of it.
I think they would be at least a little more involved in the world because isolationism didn't seem to be working out so well.
the US in January 1946 had the 2nd largest army, A Navy and a Airforce larger than the entire rest of the allies and pre war Axis combined.
By 1949 and the fall of National China, the US was approaching early 1941 levels. And if not for NKorea, would have reached 1939 levels.
If not for The Warsaw Pact and NKorea. The US would have returned to Political/Military Isolation.
So a Tl where Germany finishes The East Wall in 1941 before Barbarossa. Takes Leningrad in 1941. and allows the Generals to conduct the scorched earth Retreat.
No Battle of the Bulge, everything is directed against the Russians, and trying to Bleed them to Death.
The Russian Army suffers close to 2 million more deaths.
When Japan surrenders in August following the Bombs, Russia is still involved in the Battle for Berlin.
Nationalist China occupies Manchuria, and The US Occupies all Korea.
1951, Russia is still removing Rubble from Leningrad and finding Booby Traps hidden under the Rubble. Russia also has a sever Manpower Shortage.
The Free Poles and Czechs are in power. No Warsaw Pact.
The Nationals have won the Chinese civil war, and a unified Democratic Korea, is emerging.
The US military is rated 10th in the World and Dropping. Except for the troops in Germany, Japan & Korea, All other troops are home.
And the troops in those three countries are slowly being reduced.
The US has returned to Isolation.