Germany pulls out of russia
ASB. Hitler was a maniac about the SU. (More than usual...

)
eventually invading the mainland with horrendous casualty figures.
Those numbers are a postwar fiction by Truman.
First of all, Japan is completely and utterly screwed beyond all recognition.
Word.
While the US slogs onto the shores of Hokaido
ASB. PacFleet subs had Japan on the ropes by the beginning of '45; with more effort in PTO, it'd be sooner, & the U.S. could exploit the rage over Pearl to keep burning cities quite awile before public opinion turned. And after Saipan, Japanese government fell; that might be enough for FDR to offer a deal. Also, good chance FDR's still hale & healthy, not recently dead & USG in chaos, so when Japan starts looking for a way out, &
MAGIC shows it, he agrees to let 'em keep the Emperor. Pretty good chance it ends before the Bomb is finished.
Manchuria & Korea would remain free (no SU invasion), & KMT probably wins Chinese Civil War (less Sov aid, more U.S.).
Given the utter hopelessness of their situation, the Emperor probably moves to surrender six months early--March 1945.
I'd pick Saipan, which TTL could be mid/late '43.
Given that the Dutch and French don't really exist as allied nations, I see the USA putting in pro-US Strongmen in charge of Indonesia and Vietnam.
Very interesting. Agreed.
Meanwhile, the Soviet Union doesn't have the resources to drive Germany off its soil.
Why not? Without Lend-Lease, I picture SU having to ramp down production of T-34s & KVs, to build trucks, or risk all-leg infantry (not an option against Germany, IMO), but Stalin'd still win, tho it might take longer.
Without Liberty ships, Winston might have to give Harris a smack & insist on basing ASW Stirlings in NF before hell freezes over, which could enable a joint Anglo-French landing in Marseilles or Normandy in '43 (leaving off Winston's pipedream of a Balkans campaign, & France resisting the Italian quagmire).
The USA probably has to intervene to keep the UK afloat--it would be in very bad shape...The UK is forced to withdraw from its far-flung empire to pay for its own reconstruction. Japan, China, Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia become members of some kind of Pacific Theather of Operations pact; ANZAC probably joins.
Probably. Given UK was nearly broke, I could see things really bad there...even a Com revolution. Maybe France, too.
Given no U.S.-UK-France alliance, I'd question the existence of the Marshall Plan, tho it might get done as an anti-SU measure. Given war's shorter, the postwar U.S. boom is smaller, & the Baby Boom, too. Less damage to industry in Europe for same reason may mean recovery's a bit easier. Closer Anglo-French ties lead to a neo-
Entente? More joint projects? Concorde & Eurofighter sooner?
I would bet on Germany and the Soviets to settle a rematch with nuclear ordinance.
You'd lose. Germany was incapable of it, & TTL, it's likely SU couldn't afford it til much later. It might be by, & over, Cuba, tho, assuming Khrushchev doubts U.S. willingness to use the Bomb on civilians.
January 1942
The first American Troops arrive in Australia, onroute to support the Austrialian forces in New Guinea.
Hmm... A bit early for PNG, IMO.
March 1942
British cancel plans to deploy Indian troops in SE Asia, and instead earmark them for NAfrica, and Itailian EAfrica.
Very doubtful, IMO. India was the jewel in the crown. This might risk losing India (or appear to), & Winston's unlikely to go for it. Besides, there were substantial numbers of Indian troops in play in NAfr, & for them to see their homeland apparently abandoned wouldn't go over well, either.
Septembre
Operation Torch
10 Divisions of Infantry and Artillery come ashore in southern east Java. They begin a drive north and west.
ASB. They're under Japanese air the whole time. It would be a debacle. Nor would it be called
TORCH, BTW.
Novembre
US Marines begin Island Hopping Campaign in Japanese Micronesia.
ASB, same reason. And have you forgotten, the objective is
defeat Japan, not
liberate DEI? Tarawa, Makin, Saipan, Okinawa, Iwo Jima...
Britain, Free French Invade Vichy France along the Med. 40 % of the British troops are from India. another 20% from the Commonwealth and Empire.
After HMG more/less abandons India? Dubious... I'd picture more troops from French colonies, tho.
A USN that is NOT at war with the Reich is almost a worse enemy than one that is, since self defense is one hell of a nice excuse to behave badly.
LOL.
The huge number of bombers used IOTL to pummel Germany are now available to fly out of Australia to destroy the oil gererating capacity of the DEI
Actually not. With full loads, B-24s couldn't hit the most productive fields, which is why Kenney wanted B-29s, which aren't available...& if the war is going better (as I presume), they won't be, either.
The bad news is that with the forces available, the U.S. command will have no reason to follow the "wither and die" strategy that saved so much bloodshed IOTL.
I think you overestimate U.S. rage. The U.S. has always tended to want to minimize losses; I see no reason that would change. Ditto landings in Kyushu; I'd expect Japan to surrender before that becomes necessary.