USA doesn't join WW1 but Germany still loses?

I'd suggest combining no Zimmerman with a 'Sharpened' rather than Unrestricted uboat campaign would delay US entry into the war, perhaps long enough for the Kerensky offensive to fail which might further delay US entry.

The Sharpened rules are "Attacks could be made without warning on: (1) all enemy ships inside the British Isles war zone, (2) all defensively-armed enemy ships outside the war zone which would be treated as warships, (3) troop transports sailing between Le Havre and Dunkirk. All passengers ships whether armed or unarmed, inside or outside the war zone, could not be attacked by a submerged U-boat" https://www.naval-history.net/WW1NavyBritishShips-Locations10AttackedMNDate1916.htm

1602049256546.png
Might work, yet it doesn't kick the British out of the war, nor does it make the Americans less pro-Entent, nor does it bring food into Germany. The entire USW campaign never had enough subs to break the British materially; just the hope of breaking them morale-wise. Also keep in mind that uboats of the era didn't have the range to stay on station around Scotland/Midlands for long.
 
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The Sharpened rules are "Attacks could be made without warning on: (1) all enemy ships inside the British Isles war zone, (2) all defensively-armed enemy ships outside the war zone which would be treated as warships,

In late 1916 the Germans in fact torpedoed two armed merchantmen, the Marina and Arabia. Despite repeated prods from Sec of State Lansing, President Wilson took no action in response, and later upset Lansing by indicating that he might have to accept that armed merchantmen were fair game.
 
Might work, yet it doesn't kick the British out of the war, nor does it make the Americans less pro-Entent, nor does it bring food into Germany. The entire USW campaign never had enough subs to break the British materially; just the hope of breaking them morale-wise. Also keep in mind that uboats of the era didn't have the range to stay on station around Scotland/Midlands for long.

It's no panacea, but it does increase the effectiveness of the uboat fleet while reducing the change it will provoke a quick DoW from the US, therefore tilts the balance toward the CP somewhat.
 
Oil, food, steel and copper just to name the most important ones. The Entente was impirting for 8.5 bn Dollar OTL between the DoW and November 18.

First fact: No other nation could supply anything serious in those 4 areas. Even if an ASB had granted the needed shipping and ASW ressources, even if any other country would have been willing to sell against credit there simply was nothing that could be bought.

Second fact. In all the threads so far I have only seen one person trying to make a calculation how much the UK could buy, it came up to 2.8 bn so less than a third of the original imports.

Taking just a cut back of 1/3 of the imports it mean.
a) Russia out of the war in 17.
b) operations in the Balkan and middle east massively curtailed
c) a seriously worse Caporetto.
d) higher losses of the Entente in France and less for Germany.

So by March 18 AH and OE are not in dire need of help because of b Germany has around a million men more in the west because of a and d.

Morale of the Entente soldiers will be as in March 17 meaning very very low.

And that was just with a cut of 1/3.
 
At Sea

POD 1. 1917: Zimmerman keeps his yap shut, the popular belief is that the telegram is an English forgery. A British minister is given a berating as it backfires on them. American war enthusiasm is dimmed slightly but still overwhelming pre-Entente as weekly headlines of American children, women, and men lost at sea against unrestricted submarine warfare. Merchant men are being armed as per IOTL against the unchanged unrestricted submarine warfare while diplomatic relations are severed. Admiral Henning von Holtzendorff seems to be vindicated on his prediction of American neutrality, for now. Having lost a high of 800,000 shipping tons in April the British start organizing and implementing a convoy system and the tonnage lost steadily declines down towards 500,000 tons a month; contrary to Von Holzendorff's predictions the British refuse to give up. While current losses exceed Entente shipping production, the British, Dominions, and French started the war with over half the world's shipping at 23 million tons. At a exchange rate of 55,000 merchant tons and 105 sailors (can be drawn from worldwide pool) per submarine (quite the technical construct) and 35 submariners (must be trained at least 9 months with technical skills) attrition isn't on the side of the German Empire as British production and ship purchases from America keeps losses manageable.

There is a brief scare in France as imports seemed insufficient to prevent hunger and the French Minister of Commerce Etienne Clémentel in control of French maritime transport, goes to London in Autumn 1917 to seek relief; this will lead to the Allied Maritime Transport Council like IOTL that not only pool shipping resources but also helped implement efficiencies against port congestion and ship waiting times as per IOTL.

POD 2. As American causalities mount two votes are proposed by Wilson to join the war, but like Versailles IOTL Wilson's desire to play the hero while neglecting congresses concerns backfires as congress disagrees with Wilson's over-eagerness wanting to go over some details and inadvertently end up in a mud-slinging match both times. Regardless the majority of Americans are pro-Entente while hate for the Germans killing Americans rises. The British and French, fighting the Germans killing innocent Americans gain better credit terms; while they may not be at war the American resentment is seething.

On land

The provisional government, as per IOTL believed that their military is revitalized just because they replaced the head and plans continue for a July offensive ignoring all the seething troubles of the Tsarist government. This plan was voted on before OTL's American DOW and nothing material changes in Russia, the hope is still to use an offensive to gain prestige, then deal with all the internal troubles. Kerensky as per IOTL is giving speeches infront of hand-picked crowds that are enthusiastic to end the war, but by going home instead of fighting Germany. Blind to the sheer war-wariness and more concerned about legality and precedence of popular demands of land reform, serfdom, and food the provisional government decides to hold an assembly in September. Meanwhile the peasants and soldiers of Russia, who gave two shits about legal precedence or constitutional legitimacy votes with their feet by walking home and seizing noble lands; the majority of times the land records are burned and the manor's occupants told firmly to get out or else. Meanwhile the cities grow more restless as the new government seems just as bad as the Tsarist gov it replaced in getting food. Many setup their own councils (Soviets) often with the SRs, often in alliance with the Bolsheviks as IOTL. America's absence has minimal effect as the strait of the Bosporus remains closed and shipping is lacking regardless.

On the western front Nivelle continues his preparations for an offensive (once again pre-dating America's DOW) decided in the Chantilly Conferences in 1916. Despite reservations from Petain the overwhelming majority of French civilians, leadership, and soldiers want to reclaim French land and their discontent was with the inefficiency of the previous offensives as opposed to the idea of offensives. Just like IOTL, neither the French nor British planned for an American DOW, it was nice but they had no idea if or when it might happen. The British give their support and join the offensive contingent on French-assistance; Nivelle will mess this up.

Both offensives fail. The French sack Nivelle promoting him to African theater command, yet the old guy just sticks around headquarters for weeks as no one wanted to deal with the awkward conversation just like IOTL. While there is a brief antiwar revolt, French soldiers can simply write to their representative and many of them do incontrast to the military dictatorship in Germany. Petain takes over, gives the men better conditions, more rest, and sets the army on a defensive posture for at least the rest of the year.

Lacking manpower, the French start implementing mass-colonial conscription; while opposed by colonial big whites and definitely complicates metropole-colonial relations post-war it was seen as the lesser of two evils. Many colonials will sign up, after all the French had already made various promises of autonomy, privileges, and such when peace was achieved at the start of the war; some of course sign up for the pay which even at a fraction of a Frenchman's is quite the sum back home.

It looks like its up to the British for 1918 who still has plenty of men to draft. Meanwhile various dominions begin or widen conscription, while contentious most Dominions are British or first generation British and support is overwhelming except in Quebec. Horrified by the seemingly pointless causalities taken for a few miles British PM Lloyd George considers with-holding men from conservative favorite Hauge, begins to (and by implication sabotages the British war effort for political gain) but quickly reverses course when the Germans seem to be on the ascendant after fall in the East.

In the East, many soldiers simply refuse to attack, those that do are the most reliable and elite of the remaining Tsarist-now Provisional forces. The attack is directed at the weaker Austrian forces, unknown to the Russians the Austrian army had mostly integrated into the German army and the quality was uniform across the Eastern front. The attack is allowed to run out of steam before the German army counter attacks dealing a devastating blow to Russian morale and Kerensky who betted all of his legitimacy on winning a good peace.

Despite the failure, Kerensky's delusions deepen as he alienates the Cossacks (the last militarily powerful pro-provisional force) as per IOTL. Bolshevik elements call for a coup to dispense with the dual governing arrangement between the Provisional Government and the Soviets, nothing happens IOTL as the majority of Russians are tired and hungry not caring to fight for either side; yet Kerensky in his delusion interprets this as a lack of support for the Soviets and by default a massive amount of support for him. Over the course of June, July, September Kerensky tries to call an assembly for legitimacy, only the Provisional Government assembly doesn't shut up and obey and goes off to make his own assembly just as IOTL, with hookers and blackjack in the Tsar's palace (not yet confirmed).

In a vacuum of power after the breakdown of central authority, the Bolsheviks seize power and proclaims land, peace, self-determination, and food. Given that Bolshevik power is limited to parts of Moscow and Petrograd and a tactical alliance with the SRs that run the majority of Soviets there was little else they could've done. Most remaining soldiers take this as permission to go home, looting along the way to sustain themselves while peasants ratchet up the land appropriation. In contrast to their proclamations, the Bolsheviks immediately setup the Cheka; a secret police accountable to no one, start confiscating food from the countryside to sustain their urban powerbase, shutting down all political opposition, and accepting minority independence on paper; ie arguing that while the Ukrainians should be free, the Rada isn't representative and we should have an non-rigged election later.

Across the empire, with the breakdown of central authority many old grudges are coming to the surface across class, religious, and ethnic lines. In Finland the militant aristocratic right strikes first; hoping to crush the socialists and gain independence, meanwhile the majority reds and socialists are caught flat-footed as they also wanted independence, but peacefully. There are many more instances but that's a story for another time.

At the end of it, the Germans tire of Bolshevik stalling at Brest-Litovsk and decided to attack hard against... nothing. Nothing expect the token defensive positions and come within a hundred miles of Leningrad (as IOTL) and the minority of Bolsheviks led by Lenin sues for peace under harsh terms; trusting that soon revolution will come to Germany and the other imperialist powers and they can reverse the losses. Regardless of peace or war, the long-suppressed tensions of the Russian Empire are finally unleashed and there is no turning back regardless of what figurehead is in charge.

To many peasants the Bolsheviks were worse than the Tsar, stealing food, beating the reluctant, all with a excess spurred by revolutionary zeal and the gluttony of hungry men. Adding to that the Germans try to extract what food there's left that they can get their hands on in Poland and Ukraine; the resulting 100,000 tons (just as IOTL) is a drop in the bucket for Germany, let alone Austria or Bulgarian.

Germany:

Trading a million men in occupation fraternizing with socialists for 100.000 tons of grain is a bad deal by all accounts, but the prideful Hindenburg refuses to admit as such and opts to continue the trend from 1915 of scape-gloating minorities, pitting regions against each other, soldiers against officers who receive better rations, POWs, women, children, and anyone who isn't working for the war-industries or military is deemed as "stealing" food from the deserving just as IOTL. (sounds like Nazi-lite doesn't it?). 3 years of prioritizing nitrogen for the military instead of fertilizer, of farm boy drafts, of farm animal drafts/slaughter for the imminent victory every season since 1914, and of the price controls fast finally hitting the breaking point. Faced with confiscated/slaughtered animals, drafted sons, less fertilizer, and price controls making profits impossible many farmers decide to grow for only personal consumption.

By 1917 most Germans, while supportive of market controls found the government to be “in control of nothing” and even to have sanctioned profiteering, suggesting that people who did not follow the rules should be put into prison, while those who did follow the law belonged “in the nuthouse." as per IOTL. On average, a healthy German would've lost 40 pounds by 1917 (just as IOTL) and the specter of disease and famine began to rear their heads. The average German surveyed listed sourcing food as both the number one concern and the greatest time spent per day; valuable work hours are spent queuing in line, searching unofficial markets, or just plain sick instead of industrial activity. Only a hundred thousand or so die this winter, but the food situation can only worsen and OHL decides that since USW has failed to break British morale that it must finish the war soon.

AH: By 1917, one of the chief architects of the war Conrad von Hötzendorf had already destroyed the Imperial Army several times and had implemented indiscriminate drafting since 1915 ripping away machinists and farmers need for the war. In march 1917, after so much wasted lives Conrad von Hötzendorf is finally dismissed and given the title of count; he will spend the rest of his life denying all wrongdoing and blaming everyone else (particularly the imperial court and Germans, the only ones capable of exonerating him). (just as IOTL, he'll brood in hell for a quick moment before being clawed apart by millions of imperial subjects and Serbians.)

At 5.638 million tons imperial food production is only 60% of the pre-war 9.43 million tons just as IOTL, last I checked the Austrians weren't importing from America. First, the decline is partially due to the repeated occupation and scorched earth of Galicia and Bukovina which accounted for over 1/3 of imperial production. Second the repeated destruction of the imperial army has led to a massive labor shortage, lack of fertilizers, lack of draft animals, lack of grazing herds. Unlike Germany, AH had only lacked Phosphorous and Nitrogen fertilizers but had potash in abundance; which has lead to 3 years of overuse and soil depletion; something post-war farmers will complain bitterly about. Also unlike Germany AH price controls discouraged grain in favor of animal feed in addition to discouraging general production. And unlike Germany AH was hit by climatic disruptions, which further lowered food production. (all as IOTL)

In contrast to the more generalized German market the internal AH market was relatively specialized, leading to worsening distribution and oddities such as Austria being self-sufficient in dairy, but severely lacking in meat and grain. As transport broke down the Empire's agricultural specialization has left the Austrian core starving; while it made sense pre-war to produce only perishables around Vienna and import durable grain from Hungary this was no longer the case.

In the midst of all this turmoil, old agitations for democracy, equality, national self-determination, class-wars, and were reaching a boil. Riots and strikes had already broken out in the cold and hungry winters of 1916. More frightening still was the adoption of the Russian slogan "All power to the Soviets!" by the moderate democrats, not that Vienna bothered to make the distinction. In reaction to all this, the military high command that had stumbled into this war decided to inspire "military discipline" to stop the unrest to little effect, blame the various ethnicities they commanded for the failures of command, and come September blame the returning prisoners of war from Russia as cowards and traitors sending them to military re-education camps (just as IOTL, I can't make this stupidity up, how arrogant do you have to be to actively spite your own soldiers?). Despite all of this, order still prevailed and the army obeyed while their stomachs rumbled louder every day. Meanwhile non-German and Hungarian POWs in Entente camps flocked towards the foreign legions with the promise of freeing their homelands.

Bulgaria; starting from a feudal-rural economy the tiny nation of 4 million has mobilized an amazing quarter of its population. This is especially impressive given that it had lost its most fertile land in 1912 during the second Balkan War and had not recovered its herds or material stocks. Yet unable to feed itself, arm itself with heavy weaponry, or push into the mountains of the Macedonian front the cries for help grow ever louder towards Berlin and the heavens.

Ottoman Empire: despite the majority of the country opposing the war, being unready for war, and having just suffered the loss of the economic heartland in 1912, and undergoing sectarian strike, Enver Pasha said "fuck it I'm gonna burn it all down in a war and a new and improved Ottoman Empire will rise from the ashes" and is now getting to reap his fruits; except instead of a renewed Ottoman Empire its looking more and more like a renewed Turkish nation as regions breakaway.
In no small part thanks to Pasha's amazing incompetence entire armies had died to the elements before even meeting a single Russian and the same starvation, destitution, and chaos is present like the other central powers. (same as IOTL, bit colorful)
1918
pro-CP POD 3, despite overwhelming public support for war Wilson manages to step on everyone's toes with his patronizing attitude and over-reach as he attempts to use his presidential position to declare war precipitating an constitutional crisis that eventually leads to his impeachment followed by a fresh-election in the fall. Admidst all of this America grows more pro-Entente thanks to USW but stay distracted and out of the war; emboldening the Kriegsmarine.

Oil, food, steel and copper just to name the most important ones. The Entente was impirting for 8.5 bn Dollar OTL between the DoW and November 18.

First fact: No other nation could supply anything serious in those 4 areas. Even if an ASB had granted the needed shipping and ASW ressources, even if any other country would have been willing to sell against credit there simply was nothing that could be bought.
Why would American shipping just stop, who else has a better credit than the UK or France at this time? Why can't the British and French, who aren't dying of starvation, enjoying a higher quality of life, and printed less money than the Germans just cut back and inflate like the Germans? Or even better tax the colonies. Or at the worst case, give up Britain's post-war position as the financial center of the world- a major handicap IOTL.

Its odd that you hold the British and French to such arbitrary constraints when the Central Powers show that there was so much more they can mobilize and sacrifice. It doesn't help prove your point.

Second fact. In all the threads so far I have only seen one person trying to make a calculation how much the UK could buy, it came up to 2.8 bn so less than a third of the original imports.
So can you give us the numbers then? Hard to discuss without underlying facts. I can claim I saw a guy calculate different numbers, see how unreliable that seems?
 
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I had them cut back and not have the deliveries stopped. So why are you arguing against a point I never made?
Any guy who claims the UK could import the 8.5 bn is the one who has to come up with figures jow to replace it. Not my job.
 
I had them cut back and not have the deliveries stopped. So why are you arguing against a point I never made?
Any guy who claims the UK could import the 8.5 bn is the one who has to come up with figures jow to replace it. Not my job.
How convinent, you argued for a change from the OTL, won't present justification for the changes-not even when someone else had allegedly did the work already, and put the onus on me.

Sure 😃, I'll search the sources on British finances tomorrow when I get up and ask you to return the gesture and present some numbers. And now that you have an entire day to prepare, I look forward to the enlightening facts since you're so confident.
 
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I have given you the figure of the total imports. I gave the Entente leeway to make up for 2/3 rds of it even though the best figure (and btw the only one so far, everybody else was arguing „somehow“) was only good for less than 1/3rd.

What was officially in the cards by literally every contemporary source so far brought up was actually a full stop of the deliveries. But I am not arguing this.

So if your claim is either that the deliveries would continue as OTL you would need to find the money (hint, higher taxation or printing money does not help at all as none would bring you Dollars or gold which you need for imports) a task that the UK treasury was unable to do

or you would have to argue that with less supplies to the Entente and more to the CP the situation in March 18 would have been exactly like OTL.
 
Oil, food, steel and copper just to name the most important ones. The Entente was impirting for 8.5 bn Dollar OTL between the DoW and November 18.

First fact: No other nation could supply anything serious in those 4 areas. Even if an ASB had granted the needed shipping and ASW ressources, even if any other country would have been willing to sell against credit there simply was nothing that could be bought.

Second fact. In all the threads so far I have only seen one person trying to make a calculation how much the UK could buy, it came up to 2.8 bn so less than a third of the original imports.

Taking just a cut back of 1/3 of the imports it mean.
a) Russia out of the war in 17.
b) operations in the Balkan and middle east massively curtailed
c) a seriously worse Caporetto.
d) higher losses of the Entente in France and less for Germany.

So by March 18 AH and OE are not in dire need of help because of b Germany has around a million men more in the west because of a and d.

Morale of the Entente soldiers will be as in March 17 meaning very very low.

And that was just with a cut of 1/3.
I am going to have to question your numbers here. According to the Federal Reserve Bulletin of 1919, these are the exports from the US to the Entente throughout the war:
1642244062988.png


As you can see, the value of exports to all Allied nations in 1918 was $3.5 Billion.
 
I am going to have to question your numbers here. According to the Federal Reserve Bulletin of 1919, these are the exports from the US to the Entente throughout the war:
View attachment 710920

As you can see, the value of exports to all Allied nations in 1918 was $3.5 Billion.
He means total exports for the entire period from DOW to 1918, which is actually $8.6 billion.

Thing is, the Entente does not have to cut the entire import value to zero.
 
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I have given you the figure of the total imports. I gave the Entente leeway to make up for 2/3 rds of it even though the best figure (and btw the only one so far, everybody else was arguing „somehow“) was only good for less than 1/3rd.

What was officially in the cards by literally every contemporary source so far brought up was actually a full stop of the deliveries. But I am not arguing this.

So if your claim is either that the deliveries would continue as OTL you would need to find the money (hint, higher taxation or printing money does not help at all as none would bring you Dollars or gold which you need for imports) a task that the UK treasury was unable to do

or you would have to argue that with less supplies to the Entente and more to the CP the situation in March 18 would have been exactly like OTL.
Claims not sources. Of course it'll be different, what I disagree with is the response as a simple slider from Entente<--------->Central Powers and the lack of an Entente response. The broad strokes was still against the Central Powers, now let's look at the details.

Where did you get 8 billion from, the amount at the end of the war that they paid off steadily over a hundred years in 2015? Long-term loans were much easier to service being essentially on British credit and spread out over decades. The short-term loans was 1.4 billion over the period and the actual challenge. Looking into it, I'd agree with you, they floated a 500million loan in 1916 through JP Morgan and withdrew another 400million in unsecured loans; which Wilson put a pause on because he thought he can force a settlement. This is well within his power, plays to his personal glory-seeking impulses, and avoids his habit of ignoring congress. This is of course the same Wilson that declared war a year later in response to unrestricted submarine warfare (USW).

For one, its hard to see how the US stays neutral with USW and Americans die by the week; without getting into a POD replacing the Wilson administration the same pressures are there for war and its up to Germany to scale back on USW. There would be less economic and material pressure from few ships sunk; a requirement for American-belligerency instead of war.

"economic orthodoxy was that its international standing was linked to its gold reserves, which were set to run out in early 1917; technically, Great Britain was facing bankruptcy"
Strachan, Hew: Financing the First World War, Oxford 2004, pp. 59-60.

Yet as we know today and as the British found out, value isn't about gold but confidence. The Central Powers would love it that their major concern was the lack of bullion, a matter of confidence as opposed to real material deficits causing inflation and starvation. Given the choice between losing and inflation they will inflate away and as the Germans, Russians and Austrians show they can get a good 2-3 years out of inflation. They knew this will come with hard, possibly permanent damage to British financial domination post-war but it is depth they can use. Much like the central powers should they choose, they can prioritize military nitrates instead of fertilizer; slaughter breeding flocks; cut back on pesticides just like the Central powers did three years earlier with similar effects down the road in 1919-1920; they'd start to starve by then yet the Germans would be long-gone.

Exports was a factor; one the Entente didn't like but should Wilson play hardball with loans they can do it by dialing back offensives and war production. The Central powers in contrast would love the ability to export surpluses and trade, yet they're just stuck with the imbalances.

"The Treasury did not know how many American dollar securities were held in Britain. Obtaining them raised uncomfortable questions for a liberal state at war. Initially the Treasury borrowed securities from holders on a volunteer basis. It was not until 1917 that American dollar securities were sequestrated. Over the life of the scheme, 1915-19, the American Dollar Securities Committee bought or borrowed bonds and shares worth $1,423 million."

Wormell, The Management of the National Debt 2000, p. 180.

Understandable as a democracy with rule of law and a financial center, Britain really didn't want to confiscate American assets from its citizens, yet it was an option and can cover a majority of the 1.4 billion short-term loans.

At the same time, they can sell valuable real-estate like Bermuda or the Caribbean islands, it'd be a hit to imperial prestige; but no where as much of a hit as losing the Great War.


broadberry%20table1%2010%20nov.png

Source: Broadberry and Harrison (2005: 7-10).
Let's subtract Russia, which is soon to be out with its at around 700-800$ per capita and 91 million; and you'd end up with 168 million French and Brits at around 530 billion: the imperial cores alone were still twice the size of the Central Powers economies. It also comes with some hidden advantages; higher personal incomes allow for greater taxation before they hit the impoverishing bottom like Germany. Higher personal income from efficiency and mechanization also means more men to mobilize.

There is plenty Britain alone can tap into, so let's say they economize. This isn't the days of just in time shipping, supply shocks take time to propagate and stockpiles can be relied upon short-term it'd take months-a year to show and respond to. As this happens in April lots of things changes.

1. They can cut back on Romanian shipments, Romania stays out. Germany and AH goes hungrier without Romanian loot, its going to be a cold and hungry winter.
2. Would they still go with the Neville offensive knowing supply shocks a year from now? Probably yes, but it also means longer time to build-up for the next action probably in early 1919. If not then they tone it down, after all one of the basics of siege warfare is starvation and time isn't on the German-side; the defensive such a future shortage causes will be better for French causalities on the defensive. This isn't 1918 where the Entente figured out how to do proper mechanized pushes.
2.5 Should the disasters Neville offensive continue yeah morale will plummet, might be more than IOTL; unknown to the Central Powers wo are busy in the east. The French will need to recoup and be incapable of offensives for at-least a year; so what? Just like IOTL not willing to die attacking is a far cry from letting Germans advance, the French being democratic and capable of learning will put someone like Petain to restore morale. Not that the Germans can do much in the west with 127 German Divisions facing off 106 French, 56 British, and 6 Belgian divisions of similar quality.
3. Russia folds: while the Entente rushes supplies from Feb-Oct, the drain soon stops with the peace-making Bolsheviks.
4. Less men and material are sent to the Salonika front; not that the Bulgarians can do much against mountains anyways; yes they'd last a bit longer not that this imports a single calorie into Bulgaria.
5. They cut back on non-essentials: Britain was 40 % of American trade and it traded more than just war material; they can cut back and prioritize war materials at the expense of farming and consumer goods.

Once again I find it odd that the Entente, faced with different situations (whether finances or material) won't adapt by cutting back on consumption or offensives. That from a position of strength with more men, material, and control of trade can't just sit back on the defensive against an adversary that's deficient in food and material.

Read the TL in progress earlier in the thread if you want details on the food situation.
 
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Honestly, I find the idea that the Entente is not gonna have access to American ressources if they don't join the war to be kinda ods. The US need to trade to maintain its economy and there wasn't a ton of other options then feeding the Entente war machine to do so in OTL so they sent ressources and offered loans before joining the war in OTL. I see no reasons they would stop doing so ITTL...

Add this to the fact that that the Ottomans and the Austrian-Hungarians' issues won't disapear and that the French and the British could always deal with manpower issues by drawing more forces from their colonies, even if they really did not want to due to the obvious mid to long term consequences, and the Entente probably end up making it through, even if it would be far more costly then OTL.
 
The one with the USA continuing to deliver…

OTL the congress voted twice to no longer deliver if not paid in kind. Wilson made it clear there won‘t be any unsecured loans. They all changed their mind after the DOW but without that? So far my repeated requests to quote US politicians that were arguing to continue delivering has been met with a blank.

Lucius, nice statistic that has the Russia of November 16 with exactly the same size as November 14.

Anf for the food discussion. A with the blockade less watertight it will be betterB with a serious reduction of imports from the USA the Entente will be in a similar position and C OTL Germany did survive the 18/19 winter so they would as well ina continuing war.

For the finances: The USA did not accept sterling if they do not nobody else will. And in 17 the inflation in the UK was even worse than in Germany. Selling off Islands woulf need the USA to purchase them but the islands in the Atlantic would be a drop on a hot stone.

You would have to go for Singapur, Hongkong and the likes to finance more than a week of the war. And before the UK does this they will accept a sqa peace easily.
 
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Main point still stands. The most massive POD possible in 17 and yet a lot of people argue it won’t change a thing until November 18.
 
Main point still stands. The most massive POD possible in 17 and yet a lot of people argue it won’t change a thing until November 18.
How convinent, you argued for a change from the OTL, won't present justification for the changes-not even when someone else had allegedly did the work already, and put the onus on me.

Sure 😃, I'll search the sources on British finances tomorrow when I get up and ask you to return the gesture and present some numbers. And now that you have an entire day to prepare, I look forward to the enlightening facts since you're so confident.
I gave you sources, multiple... To which you dismissed without your own sources and proclaimed victory?
Judging from the poor grammar alone, you don't care to return the courtesy or offer any sources. This isn't bad, I think it would've been fun and enjoyable being proven wrong and eating shit or being right, though this is just kinda anti-climatic. Enjoy your victory, of sorts.
 
For one, its hard to see how the US stays neutral with USW and Americans die by the week;

Something of an exaggeration.

Of five US merchantmen sunk in March 1917, only two, the Vigilancia and the Healdton, involved any loss of life. Similarly, in April, of nine US vessels sunk, only the Aztec and Vacuum involved any deaths. [1]

The Germans landed themselves in war with te US for the sake of sinking a small handful of ships, using torpedoes which could equally well have been used on an equivalent number of British or other Entente vessels. They torpedoed themselves in the foot.

[1] For full details see http://www.usmm.org/ww1merchant.html
 
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