US Space Program...

...I was re-reading Ministry of Space and I had a thought.

Assuming the United States had access to the same Black Budget and the same...obsessed officer in charge, what would the results be?

I think we'd be at the moon by the late '50s/early'60s, and a colony on Mars by the same time, too.
 
That only works if you assumed that a massive black budget equals unparalleled technological progress. I always found the idea that "throw more money at the problem so we finish it a decade earlier" to be somewhat shaky, especially in a field where such a major part of it was developing new metals, chemicals, synthetics, and technologies.
 
Talent does tend to gravitate to where the money is. And, very often, most problems require a solution that involves personal courage, political will, and lots and lots of money.


That only works if you assumed that a massive black budget equals unparalleled technological progress. I always found the idea that "throw more money at the problem so we finish it a decade earlier" to be somewhat shaky, especially in a field where such a major part of it was developing new metals, chemicals, synthetics, and technologies.
 
Talent does tend to gravitate to where the money is. And, very often, most problems require a solution that involves personal courage, political will, and lots and lots of money.

I freely admit, as a patron of the military-industrial complex, that funding is important for speedy development. But perhaps because I was raised by two government contractor employees in a city that would blow away were it not for government technology contracts, I sometimes see the extent that some of these "what ifs" take money=progress to ridiculous extents.

Like the guy in a recent thread who argued that Nazi germany, had it won by 1943, would have had uber-super space planes by the late forties, a moon base (with ICBMs that would control the world :rolleyes:) by the early fifties, and a man on Mars by 1960. His proof? A book (not in english) that said that Germany had a plan to put research as a top priority under the SS, with over a TRILLION reich marks allocated towards it, and the fact the the German rocket scientists would not be moved to the US or Russia.

Technology doesn't work like that. It isn't some magical formula "add one piece HOC4, three ClR2 under temperature X", that can be found by trying all the possible combinations. For example, if the exact composition of the US B-2 bomber, stealth pain and all, were released on the internet, most nations would not be able to build it for YEARS, perhaps closer to a decade, because they wouldn't have the infrastructure. They wouldn't have the infrastructure to build that infrastructure either.

To build it, not only would they have to train up a load of people for the various tasks (which requires its own infrastructure), but they would have to build the infrastructure to build the infrastructure to test the data received from the test that requires its own infrastructure, and then make new infrastructure (often dissembling the old) to build ANOTHER attempt, and so on.

It's more than money; it's TIME. It takes time to set up tests, it takes time to take data, time to analyze data, time to figure out a new test, and more. Just as it takes time to figure out what to do with that new chemical mixture you just invented; is it the next dishwasher detergent, or a rocket fuel? If a rocket fuel, is it powerful and stable, or liquid death? You have to test and figure these things out as you proceed, with no way of knowing if they work or not. Technological development is not a blueprint that you automatically follow, its a mountain of possibilities you have to make something out of without knowing what the building blocks are.
 
the closes thing USA came to a "Ministry of Space"

is the USAF Program LUNEX in 1958
a Millitary control Crash Program were put Men on the Moon 1967
then put a 21-airman underground Air Force base on the moon by 1968

'Space Launching System' Booster was decades ahead of its time.
slsfam.jpg


lunex2d.jpg

LUNEX Space Craft with Landingstage

Of corse with that hardware is also Manned Mars mission possible

http://astronautix.com/articles/lunex.htm
http://astronautix.com/graphics/s/slsfam.jpg
PDF File of LUNEX program
http://www.astronautix.com/data/lunex.pdf
 
@ Dean_the_Young:

So basically, you're saying, "It's not like the tech tree in the Civ games."

(I do understand there's a lot more there, and a lot more eloquently put too, but that's what it boils down to really.)

@ Michael Van:

Ah, the Lunex Project. Lovely stuff. I mean I could be cynical and say, 'but the US Army couldn't even launch a satellite in 1957. How would the Air Force do better?' Or something like that. However, if I was that cynical, I wouldn't like Ministry of Space so much, now would I?
Astronautix is a top site, too. I don't know where he gets all the info from.
 
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@ Michael Van:

Ah, the Lunex Project. Lovely stuff. I mean I could be cynical and say, 'but the US Army couldn't even launch a satellite in 1957. How would the Air Force do better?' Or something like that. However, if I was that cynical, I wouldn't like Ministry of Space so much, now would I?

it was Army how Launch USA Satellite Explorer 1
the NAVY couldn't Launch Kapputnik :D
USAF had ICBM Atlas but the program manager, did not want any diversions from the top-priority ICBM program, like a Satellite launch
more on that http://www.astronautix.com/articles/spulus50.htm

Astronautix is a top site, too. I don't know where he gets all the info from.
NASA, ESA, Russia, Ebay, Scott Lowther, a lot Space Forums
and a very, very little part from me :D
(about Frence and German Space programs)
 
@ Dean_the_Young:

So basically, you're saying, "It's not like the tech tree in the Civ games."

(I do understand there's a lot more there, and a lot more eloquently put too, but that's what it boils down to really.)
That works. Another is that "it's not like a tech tree in a RTS game", the ones where units and upgrades become immediately available as soon as you spend X amount of gold.

If you had given a WW2 V1 to WW1 Germany, they would have had years of work to figure out the materials and mechanics of it, let alone produce their own (which would, of course, be inferior). And that's with the finished product in hand; how often does an item two or more generations ahead of current technology get predicted and aimed at as a research goal?


@ Michael Van:

Ah, the Lunex Project. Lovely stuff. I mean I could be cynical and say, 'but the US Army couldn't even launch a satellite in 1957. How would the Air Force do better?' Or something like that. However, if I was that cynical, I wouldn't like Ministry of Space so much, now would I?

There's also the institutional dissonance between proposals and reality; if you were to assume that proposals from the military branch (especially a proposal over such a contentious issue as which branch would get the space program), you would be very disappointed.

Besides, we can already have a look at what kind of program the Airforce would have run based on their performance in OTL. Did the Airforce and Navy purposely botch/plan live rocket launches? No. But the they hardly delivered what they promised on time and on budget.
 
That works. Another is that "it's not like a tech tree in a RTS game", the ones where units and upgrades become immediately available as soon as you spend X amount of gold.

Yeah, that's what I meant. I only specifically said Civ because they're well-known in the genre.

If you had given a WW2 V1 to WW1 Germany, they would have had years of work to figure out the materials and mechanics of it, let alone produce their own (which would, of course, be inferior). And that's with the finished product in hand; how often does an item two or more generations ahead of current technology get predicted and aimed at as a research goal?

Yeah, not often... in fact, practically never. Unless someone were to know what would work and what wouldn't in advance - a la any ISOT story - then that sort of thing just doesn't happen.


There's also the institutional dissonance between proposals and reality; if you were to assume that proposals from the military branch (especially a proposal over such a contentious issue as which branch would get the space program), you would be very disappointed.

'If I were to assume that proposals from the military branch...' What? If I were to assume they do what? I suppose you intended to finish that sentence, but as it stands its unclear what you mean.

Besides, we can already have a look at what kind of program the Airforce would have run based on their performance in OTL. Did the Airforce and Navy purposely botch/plan live rocket launches? No. But the they hardly delivered what they promised on time and on budget.

Oh, I know. Offhand, I can't actually think of a single rocket project which has come in on time and on budget. Although the Black Arrow was pretty low-cost: true, it couldn't do much, but it was only given a budget in single figure millions. Even 30 years ago, that's not much for a satellite launcher...
 
Yeah, that's what I meant. I only specifically said Civ because they're well-known in the genre.
I'm actually installing Civ 4 on my computer this weekend; getting bored enough between some classes to want it. :cool:


Yeah, not often... in fact, practically never. Unless someone were to know what would work and what wouldn't in advance - a la any ISOT story - then that sort of thing just doesn't happen.
Exactly. Oh, there are some exceptions; a hundred years ago, a giant cannon was thought to be the way to get to the moon, and in the future a mass driver, though a totally different concept, could be used for freight movement. And with the advance of sci-fi as a legitimate literary genre, we have people imagining all sorts of devices for the future; holo-computers, cybernetics, and so on.

But there's a key difference between imagining some future idea, and inventing an applicable solution; solutions have to work. Sci-fi often uses what I call "black box" technology, or the Schrödinger's Cat phenomenon; you never see the inside of the closed box, but you're told it works. Real mechanics don't work like that. So it takes much more than the imagination to think into the next generation of mechanics; it takes basic applicable concepts as well.

For example, just as the 60s had UFOs as the big space-age flier, in the fourties, who could have thought past the first generation of helicoptor? No one would have thought of the Apache, or one of the new planes that can shift their propellers for VTOL and then shift again for flight.




'If I were to assume that proposals from the military branch...' What? If I were to assume they do what? I suppose you intended to finish that sentence, but as it stands its unclear what you mean.
:eek:
I meant to put "were grounded in reality". Military contractor proposals, in my experience, might not promise the moon, but they do promise a nice resort on it.


Oh, I know. Offhand, I can't actually think of a single rocket project which has come in on time and on budget. Although the Black Arrow was pretty low-cost: true, it couldn't do much, but it was only given a budget in single figure millions. Even 30 years ago, that's not much for a satellite launcher...
We got to the moon within the decade, and we didn't bankrupt the country did we? That might count. :p
 
Now, why did I not reply to this?

I'm actually installing Civ 4 on my computer this weekend; getting bored enough between some classes to want it. :cool:

Cool! I might get it, but I have Vista on this thing - I hear there are compatibility issues.

Exactly. Oh, there are some exceptions; a hundred years ago, a giant cannon was thought to be the way to get to the moon, and in the future a mass driver, though a totally different concept, could be used for freight movement. And with the advance of sci-fi as a legitimate literary genre, we have people imagining all sorts of devices for the future; holo-computers, cybernetics, and so on.

But there's a key difference between imagining some future idea, and inventing an applicable solution; solutions have to work. Sci-fi often uses what I call "black box" technology, or the Schrödinger's Cat phenomenon; you never see the inside of the closed box, but you're told it works. Real mechanics don't work like that. So it takes much more than the imagination to think into the next generation of mechanics; it takes basic applicable concepts as well.

For example, just as the 60s had UFOs as the big space-age flier, in the fourties, who could have thought past the first generation of helicopter? No one would have thought of the Apache, or one of the new planes that can shift their propellers for VTOL and then shift again for flight.
All good points. About the '40s/'50s and helicopters, actually: in one of Arthur C Clarke's early published stories - I mean early 1950s - he's describing the exploration of an abandoned Earth, and talks about helicopters as having made cities obsolete, since everyone has their own helicpoter, and they can get round so easily there's no point in being all in a big group... :D

:eek:
I meant to put "were grounded in reality". Military contractor proposals, in my experience, might not promise the moon, but they do promise a nice resort on it.

he he... :D

We got to the moon within the decade, and we didn't bankrupt the country did we? That might count. :p

Well, there is that - was it on budget though?
(Not really that bothered, a hell of an achievement in any case).
 
Cool! I might get it, but I have Vista on this thing - I hear there are compatibility issues.
I have no problems, though I did have to get something from the windows website before I could load the latest mods. Civfanatics.com has a link somewhere.
Well, there is that - was it on budget though?
(Not really that bothered, a hell of an achievement in any case).
It's hard to not be on budget with a blank check, but it could have been much, much cheaper and more efficient.
 
I have no problems, though I did have to get something from the windows website before I could load the latest mods. Civfanatics.com has a link somewhere.
It's hard to not be on budget with a blank check, but it could have been much, much cheaper and more efficient.

Bumpy!

Indeed...
 

Thande

Donor
While the MoS was naturally somewhat farfetched, the USA could have done a lot better in space if more money had been put into its rocketry programmes after 1945. As it was, they did a bit of work in 1946, then stood pretty much idle for a long time while the Soviets were feverishly working with their German scientists to produce what eventually became Sputnik 1 (and the R-7 nuclear missile).

Now given that America was also spending money on various aerospace projects that never went anywhere, such as Never-Go Navajo, you can posit that this spending could have been diverted to the same areas the Soviets worked in, potentially easily beating the USSR into space.

A useful POD might be that the Nazis pull off one of their wacky CGI plans to attack American soil with V2s (submarine launched or two-stage, though the latter is probably too Luftwaffe 46 for serious consideration), underlining the importance of liquid rocket missiles to not only the Pentagon but also the American people (TM).
 
Exactly. Oh, there are some exceptions; a hundred years ago, a giant cannon was thought to be the way to get to the moon, and in the future a mass driver, though a totally different concept, could be used for freight movement. And with the advance of sci-fi as a legitimate literary genre, we have people imagining all sorts of devices for the future; holo-computers, cybernetics, and so on.

But there's a key difference between imagining some future idea, and inventing an applicable solution; solutions have to work. Sci-fi often uses what I call "black box" technology, or the Schrödinger's Cat phenomenon; you never see the inside of the closed box, but you're told it works. Real mechanics don't work like that. So it takes much more than the imagination to think into the next generation of mechanics; it takes basic applicable concepts as well.

For example, just as the 60s had UFOs as the big space-age flier, in the fourties, who could have thought past the first generation of helicoptor? No one would have thought of the Apache, or one of the new planes that can shift their propellers for VTOL and then shift again for flight.

Or for an even more relevant example, the original plan for a mission to the moon was a straight shot (Ignoring the rendevous and slingshot) and no LEM. The entire idea of us having an LEM was really a giant concidence. If we threw infinite money at the problem, we might have not noticed the alternative to a full fledged rocket landing on the moon, and we would have actually been farther behind than we were OTL.

That being said, I think you could still shave a little time off the lunar landing. And then with the proper determination, we could continue to Mars and Venus and probes to the outer Solar System. In my opinion, a space-wank isn't about making everything happen earlier, it's about keeping progress going.
 

Cook

Banned
Or for an even more relevant example, the original plan for a mission to the moon was a straight shot (Ignoring the rendevous and slingshot) and no LEM.

The original plan was using several launches to assemble a ship in Low Earth Orbit. This was abandoned in favour of a single large rocket which was considered more likely to beat the Soviets to the Moon.

The Apollo Program only makes sense as the US entry in an international sporting event. As science it was a dud. As engineering it was a dead end.
 

burmafrd

Banned
In Chuck Yeager's Autobiography he was in charge of training men towards getting in orbit and he flat out says that when it was decided to go civilian it set back the program several years.
 

Cook

Banned
In Chuck Yeager's Autobiography he was in charge of training men towards getting in orbit and he flat out says that when it was decided to go civilian it set back the program several years.

Yep.

The cancellation of the X-20 was a major setback.
 
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