US recognition of Vietnamese independence

[neopeius]

The focus in 1945 was on Europe. The British in particular were keen on rebuilding a strong France as they feared America would return to isolationism. Much like Korea the "border" at the 17th parallel was the demarcation between the British disarming the Japanese in the south and the Chinese doing so in the north. The British were also keen on "not one scrap of British territory" so the French Empire was logical corollary . Despite the commitment to free the Philippines the US had little appetite for decolonization. The State Department was pale, male and Yale.
I have read that Ho sought US recognition of his movement. IT might have been a different world.

Beyond that, in many ways, the British are directly responsible for the Vietnam war. They raced East from Burma into Vietnam specifically to put down the Vietnamese revolt, armed 1000 French, who led a successful countercoup.

There was a Vietnam, and the British toppled it, leading to everything that came after.

FDR wanted Vietnam to be an UN trusteeship. Had FDR lived and Casey not toppled Vietnam, he might have recognized Vietnam with UN intervention to ensure fair elections. Had Casey not gone into Vietnam, Truman might have eventually recognized Vietnam (Chiang's government did).

 

[neopeius]

When Algeria fell what happened? I forget. Please remind me of how stable the post war French state was.

You mean when Algeria won independence? I'm genuinely unclear as to what you're asking...

 

[Strategos' Risk]

When Algeria fell what happened? I forget. Please remind me of how stable the post war French state was.

Okay let's say both Algeria and Vietnam fall at the same time and we can see the OAS and your much-vaunted PCF duke it out in the Parisian streets.

 

[Sam R.]

The PCF as we know will fail. The problem is that Gladio indicate that the US was *overly concerned* regarding the PCI or PCF as they historically existed; and potentially to the extent that a competent analysis of the PCF could produce as a future threat.

France would need Soc Ou Bar to be more competent than Operaismo for the PCF to become a threat. And soc ou bar was three theorists and a dog. And the dog thought she’d be better off talking on the factory floor.

 

[Alex1guy]

Nothing against France, but I think they didn't bring enough to the table to warrant kid gloves with them on most every issue.

I was gonna say you might need to remove De Gaulle I understood he was big o n keeping the Empire but I maybe be wrong on that. I think you need a different French government that doesn't spit the dummy over its former colonies

 

[Strategos' Risk]

The PCF as we know will fail. The problem is that Gladio indicate that the US was *overly concerned* regarding the PCI or PCF as they historically existed; and potentially to the extent that a competent analysis of the PCF could produce as a future threat.

France would need Soc Ou Bar to be more competent than Operaismo for the PCF to become a threat. And soc ou bar was three theorists and a dog. And the dog thought she’d be better off talking on the factory floor.

They why do you always post that American recognition of independent Indochina means Red France? Are the PCF really a threat or not? And why would the U.S. supporting Vietnam cause France to turn left, when the example of Algeria shows a right-wing reaction? And if you're going to commit to this narrative, at least make it fun by turning flailing decolonizing France into a Weimar where you have the PCF and OAS bully-boys duking it out in the streets.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Would that have affected the Chinese Civil War in the aftermath of WW2?

It's sort of too implausible to think about, because it involves:

1. The post-warlord era, post-Japanese invasion, imminent civil war R.O.C. willing to take on occupation duties of another country.

2. The U.S. committing to sidelining De Gaulle or Darlan or whomever for Chiang.

3. The Nationalist Chinese being able to hold on to Indochina in their postwar occupation successfully despite centuries of animosity with the Vietnamese, not to mention them would likely want to get out asap.

4. As fun as it is to imagine Vietnam becoming the Taiwan that the KMT flees to, that probably wouldn't happen. But if they did, I think it would be less like Taiwan and more like White Russians:

KMT exiled to Burma and Indochina

President Chiang Kai-shek instructed him to rebuild his former 13th army and defend his home province, Yunnan, from Communist attacks. By the time that Communist forces had taken the mainland in 1949, Li had already withdrawn his armies south and west, into Thailand and the Shan states of...

www.alternatehistory.com

On the other hand, maybe Chiang accepting U.N. Trusteeship means they commit a token military occupation force while the Americans and French do a lot of heavy lifting, and they prop up the VNQDD so there's an actual credible anti-communist Vietnamese nationalist movement that could offset the Viet Minh.

 

[Sam R.]

They why do you always post that American recognition of independent Indochina means Red France? Are the PCF really a threat or not? And why would the U.S. supporting Vietnam cause France to turn left, when the example of Algeria shows a right-wing reaction? And if you're going to commit to this narrative, at least make it fun by turning flailing decolonizing France into a Weimar where you have the PCF and OAS bully-boys duking it out in the streets.

So in the world of class warfare there are states between a complete lack of social antagonism and the violent hegemonisation of society by one group over the protest of all others.

In the world of analysing class warfare there are agents which, despite their manifest incapacities (1968) ought to be analysed by a competent agent, or which could be analysed as such by an incompetent agent, as being a threat to the interests of a third party.

We know that the US state in the 1940s was moderately aware of France’s left wing organisations. We know that the US state prepared hysteric over reactions to the pathetic PCI. We know that the US state was primarily concerned with maintaining capitalism (even if with elected representatives from purportedly Soviet aligned parties) in France and Indochina over doing so in Indochina itself.—France is a bigger prize at the 1943 infantry meat raffle.

The PCF don’t need to hang the last capitalist with the guts of the last bureaucrat to cause a change in the actions of the US state department: existing in the 1940s was sufficient. The inability of the US state apparatus to effectively comprehend mid century Soviet parties is the issue for US support of the ICP.

As far as France goes the actual threat to the French state is military fascism (as in the Algerian loss).

As far as street fighting goes, the reality is that some party has no nuts; and, that unlike Italy the next generation are nuckfuckles when it comes to organising.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

We know that the US state in the 1940s was moderately aware of France’s left wing organisations. We know that the US state prepared hysteric over reactions to the pathetic PCI. We know that the US state was primarily concerned with maintaining capitalism (even if with elected representatives from purportedly Soviet aligned parties) in France and Indochina over doing so in Indochina itself.—France is a bigger prize at the 1943 infantry meat raffle.

The PCF don’t need to hang the last capitalist with the guts of the last bureaucrat to cause a change in the actions of the US state department: existing in the 1940s was sufficient. The inability of the US state apparatus to effectively comprehend mid century Soviet parties is the issue for US support of the ICP.

As far as France goes the actual threat to the French state is military fascism (as in the Algerian loss).

As far as street fighting goes, the reality is that some party has no nuts; and, that unlike Italy the next generation are nuckfuckles when it comes to organising.

And how does that square with this?

I wonder what would've happened if Truman answered Ho Chi Minh's phone calls and recognized an independent Vietnam. He modeled Vietnam's Constitution after the US version after all. This could've butterflied the entire Vietnam situation before Johnson even becomes president.

The general allohistorical agreement is communist france. Soviet aligned, stalinist, communist france. Due to the French. Not really due to the Soviet party.

You want to unleash the French "hards" who stockpiled whatever they could get 1943-1947 for political purposes? You want to unleash the people who wanted to overthrow French "democracy?" The people who use Stalin, as working class women and men, as a by word for actual communist revolution? People whose PCF has not even gone through the Togliatti transformation of the PCd'I / PCI over "hard" lines? And remember the PCI spawned Autonomia and Italian Maoism and BR.

At the most beneficial for the United States, imagine Brigado Rossi in France. At its most beneficial. Imagine De Gaul being kidnapped by French communist paramilitary and having his extremities cut off one at a time. With deBeauvoir writing positive commentary. And Lacan authorising it. On live radio.

The United States had greater interests than Vietnam, namely turning France into a colony economically.

 

[Sam R.]

I have to admit that your arguments have changed my mind without my having realising it; before now; to admit that your arguments have been persuasive and taken my thinking on the matter in new and interesting directions; and that my former position (while an accurate reflection of my 25 years of reading allohistorical debate) isn’t supportable.

Thank you.

To state my changed position:
The US would not support the ICP due to its misplaced fears of French instability leading to a potential left wing state.
The actual result of the US supporting the ICP would be down the lines of an unstable hostile to the US right wing France, with a possibility of a lot of dead PCF supporting workers. (If the US were capable of this more correct analysis, it would be a reason to not support the ICP).

I apologise for not having realised that you changed my mind before now, it must have been incredibly frustrating to see me defending an ever changing position as if it were consistent.

Sam R.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

That's fine, I just thought your original thesis of a PCF takeover of France because of the loss of Indochina due to American meddling was out of left field.