US-Quebec Relations

Hey Guys,

A popular POD in the American War of Independence is to have Quebec also rebel against British rule and succeed in gaining independence. The more plausible aftermath of this is to have Quebec become a separate Republic, while the 13 Colonies still unite into the USA.

But what would the future relations of Quebec and the United States be like? Without the British in control of Quebec I expect we'd see people migrate northwards with the view of Manifest Destiny, and potentially the American government may want to absorb Quebec at some point. When the British gained Quebec in 1763 it had a population of "approximately 54,000 French-speaking, Roman Catholics", which obviously expanded over the next couple of decades. But if we see an independent Quebec with a large amount of American settlers might we see a 'Québécois Revolution'? In which the American settlers rebel against what's likely to be a French government with potential aristocracy (depending on how 'liberal' Quebec is after their own revolt against Britain).

If this revolt were to occur against Québécois rule, when would the population of American settlers have revolted? Early 1800's I'd take a stab at, though I'm not good on migration numbers.

Anyway what are your thoughts?
 

Eurofed

Banned
Hey Guys,

A popular POD in the American War of Independence is to have Quebec also rebel against British rule and succeed in gaining independence. The more plausible aftermath of this is to have Quebec become a separate Republic, while the 13 Colonies still unite into the USA.

But what would the future relations of Quebec and the United States be like? Without the British in control of Quebec I expect we'd see people migrate northwards with the view of Manifest Destiny, and potentially the American government may want to absorb Quebec at some point. When the British gained Quebec in 1763 it had a population of "approximately 54,000 French-speaking, Roman Catholics", which obviously expanded over the next couple of decades. But if we see an independent Quebec with a large amount of American settlers might we see a 'Québécois Revolution'? In which the American settlers rebel against what's likely to be a French government with potential aristocracy (depending on how 'liberal' Quebec is after their own revolt against Britain).

If this revolt were to occur against Québécois rule, when would the population of American settlers have revolted? Early 1800's I'd take a stab at, though I'm not good on migration numbers.

Anyway what are your thoughts?

If Quebec joins the American Revolution, the most plausible outcome is that it becomes a US state after getting some guarantees about its established church and language written in the US Constitution. The early US Constitution would have given an American Quebec an overwhelming amount of autonomy and full civil and political rights to Catholics and French-speakers, plus military protection and access to the markets of the 13 colonies.
 
If Quebec joins the American Revolution, the most plausible outcome is that it becomes a US state after getting some guarantees about its established church and language written in the US Constitution. The early US Constitution would have given an American Quebec an overwhelming amount of autonomy and full civil and political rights to Catholics and French-speakers, plus military protection and access to the markets of the 13 colonies.

It's not "most plausible" it's one plausible aftermath. How can you quantify what-ifs in terms of chance when we have no relative comparison except what happened in real life (which ironically turned out completely different then what we're assuming here)

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Relations between an early independent New France and independent and successful USA are likely to be complicated, to say the least. It completely depends on the PoD.

You seem to mention one where New France ends up not in British control, so it's not Quebec. That would take more French victories in the SYW. This would completely change the geopolitical situation of the United States around otl time of the ARW, such that relations between the states are s practically up speculation and how you want to theme your TL.

I think you're right that Americans might try to settle New France/Quebec but this would be restricted to the Ohio Valley (settlement might actually increase if it's French-owned without the British to restrict it like OTL). The problem with settling otl Quebec was that much of the region between Albany and the St. Lawrence was completely depopulated by constant wars and cross-border raids. American settlement of those northern lands constantly had to contend with both- it was almost like the Old West but on a colder frontier. So for Americans to actually push settlements that far north it'd take a very weak New French/French administration, or a very powerful push (with diplomatic consequences likely) by American/British administration (perhaps this is one of the keys to the ARW). If the latter is the case, I really don't see much co-operation between the two states.

In the case that Americans somehow do manage to settle Quebec territory (perhaps they are invited? I didn't consider that possibility) and decide to revolt against the Quebecois, I'd hazard a guess it'd have to be in the early 1800s if not right after atl ARW. I still see some problems with Americans settling Quebec. It's very likely they could settle otl Southern Ontario (then part of New France/Quebec), but anything north of the Lachine Rapids was practically settled quite heavily. Other than the eastern townships, which won't gain much economic traction until further industrialization, there wasn't much of an impetus to settle Quebec otherwise. I suppose Americans could always settle Continental Acadia/New Brunswick, but even much of that was just swampland and forest.
 
Fine, not 'most plausible'. But still, a possible scenario.

And to Midas, i did mean a Quebec under British rule that gains independence...
 
Fine, not 'most plausible'. But still, a possible scenario.

And to Midas, i did mean a Quebec under British rule that gains independence...

Ah. Well there's more of a chance for amicable relations there. How Quebec gains independence though will change your end result. If Quebec fights alongside the Americans in the revolutionary war, ends up having lots of American settlers work on its frontier lands (not incredibly unlikely I'd say given demographic/political pressures in such an environment), rebellion would likely occur if French laws started resembling otl Quebec laws i.e. identifying a state language, Roman Catholic dominance (similar to the oppression of Catholics more southward). That would basically be up to you I guess, it just depends when such a French governor arises or if the Americans do something to really spurn popular opinion against them.

Nonetheless, I think settlement would largely be confined to the border areas once completely dominated by inter-tribal warfare (otl Northern New York) as well as what makes up Southern Ontario. You'd also get a fair bit of irony in the future as Quebec is due for a demographic explosion in the early 1830s-1850s, simply because the St. Lawrence river, local economy and pressures from Quebec aristocracy as well as (if it happens) industrialization in New England/Mid-Atlantic will make economic opportunities outside the province seem a lot richer than staying. Many French people might end up going south to ex-Quebec territories and settling them heavily :D. A sort of bizarre economic Quebecois Reconquête.
 
Can you clarify exactly what Quebec/New France you mean?

I see it more likely that Quebec and the US would go their separate ways, but assuming Quebec joins the US under whose sphere of influence would the Ohio River Valley go to? New France did include the Ohio River Valley at one point, so if Quebec controls it I'm seeing a major American-Quebecois conflict, if not, I think relations would be cordial but complex.

So, are you handing the Ohio River Valley over to Quebec or the thirteen colonies?
 
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