US Politics with independent CSA

We can assume all the territory of the original 11 seceding states was kept, and maybe Kentucky or even the Arizona Territory. I think most here agree the Confederates getting (and keeping) Missouri would be fairly unlikely.

Why should we assume that the Confederacy keeps all of the original 11 seceding states? Even Robert E Lee wasn't able to keep West Virginia, and unless the the Confederacy can produce another general who equals or exceeds Lee in skill, they are going to, at a minimum, lose some or all of Tennessee and Arkansas. For the Confederates to take Kentucky, they would need to find a general who made Robert E Lee look like a bumbler, which seems a bit unlikely. Confederate Arizona was a pipe dream - the best they managed was comparable numbers and even then they lost at Glorietta Pass against a Union force that was half territorial militia. If the Confederates had managed to win that battle, they soon would have faced the California Column, which massively outnumbered them.
 
What do you mean mediate? Why is the US going to accept this? Your answer lies in everything that answers these questions.

If the Confederacy achieves independence through some sort of British intervention, even if that's just at sea with skirmishes on the Canadian border, American public opinion will turn anti-British for generations. Nationalism, militarism, and revanchism will become major driving forces of American political life.
 
If the Confederacy achieves independence through some sort of British intervention, even if that's just at sea with skirmishes on the Canadian border, American public opinion will turn anti-British for generations. Nationalism, militarism, and revanchism will become major driving forces of American political life.
well, the US can't be too anti-British, as trade between the US and UK was rather important for both of them; the US is going to have to swallow it's ire for a while and keep the trade routes going. That said... yeah, nationalism and militarism are going to be high up on the list for a while...
 
well, the US can't be too anti-British, as trade between the US and UK was rather important for both of them; the US is going to have to swallow it's ire for a while and keep the trade routes going. That said... yeah, nationalism and militarism are going to be high up on the list for a while...

And any colonies GB has in the Americas is likely going bye-bye in the great war it has.
 
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And any holdings GB has in the Americas is likely going bye-bye in the great war it has.
not for a while... if the UK is brokering a peace treaty in the ACW, it's likely that the US realizes it can't take on the UK at that time... can't match the RN. Not to mention, France is involved too. Unless there is something like TL-191 going on, the UK's stuff in the Americas is going to be safe for a while...
 
not for a while... if the UK is brokering a peace treaty in the ACW, it's likely that the US realizes it can't take on the UK at that time... can't match the RN. Not to mention, France is involved too. Unless there is something like TL-191 going on, the UK's stuff in the Americas is going to be safe for a while...

Next great war is what I said. In the next great war GB and France are too busy fighting in Europe to deal with North America. Europe>>> North America to both GB and France.
 
What do you mean mediate? Why is the US going to accept this? Your answer lies in everything that answers these questions.

If the Confederacy achieves independence through some sort of British intervention, even if that's just at sea with skirmishes on the Canadian border, American public opinion will turn anti-British for generations. Nationalism, militarism, and revanchism will become major driving forces of American political life.

Why? It didn't happen after 1812. Austria and Germany became allies after the Austro-Prussian War, Britain and France allied after a dust-up in the Sudan, Italy allied with Germany after being on opposing sides in the Great War. America isn't going to hold a decades long grudge anymore than anyone else in history did. Trade will resume and both side will realize they're better off as friends.
 
Why? It didn't happen after 1812. Austria and Germany became allies after the Austro-Prussian War, Britain and France allied after a dust-up in the Sudan, Italy allied with Germany after being on opposing sides in the Great War. America isn't going to hold a decades long grudge anymore than anyone else in history did. Trade will resume and both side will realize they're better off as friends.

Austria and Germany were two seperate countries as was GB and France as was Italy and Germany. This is closer to Northern Ireland- Ireland , India-Pakistan, North-South Korea, North-South Vietnam, North-South Yemen.
 
What do you mean mediate? Why is the US going to accept this? Your answer lies in everything that answers these questions.

If the Confederacy achieves independence through some sort of British intervention, even if that's just at sea with skirmishes on the Canadian border, American public opinion will turn anti-British for generations. Nationalism, militarism, and revanchism will become major driving forces of American political life.
I mean Britain will broker a peace between the US and CS. This is assuming the 1862 midterms go even worse for the Republicans, and the New York Draft Riots are happening while similar riots take place elsewhere. While a war with Britain might re-ignite patriotic sentiment, I think Lincoln would be smart enough to know fragile the Union economy and supply situation is.
 
Next great war is what I said. In the next great war GB and France are too busy fighting in Europe to deal with North America. Europe>>> North America to both GB and France.
maybe. One of the smarter parts of TL-191 was that dustup in How Few Remain in the 1890s, something to keep the anti-UK/France thing going strong in the US. If there is a WW1 in this scenario and it's around the same time (roughly 50 years later) and there is no clash between the US and UK/France between the ACW and the new war.... well, that's a long time to hold a grudge. The US might just sit it out, other than selling supplies to the highest bidder. Or, they might go after just the CSA and ignore anything British.
 
I mean Britain will broker a peace between the US and CS. This is assuming the 1862 midterms go even worse for the Republicans, and the New York Draft Riots are happening while similar riots take place elsewhere. While a war with Britain might re-ignite patriotic sentiment, I think Lincoln would be smart enough to know fragile the Union economy and supply situation is.

You mean the election in which the Republicans held 16 of 18 governorships, controlled the state legislatures in all but 3 states, gained seats in the US Senate and held the House it being the first time in 20 years that the party in power retained it? https://www.historynet.com/lincolns-midterms-2.htm
 
maybe. One of the smarter parts of TL-191 was that dustup in How Few Remain in the 1890s, something to keep the anti-UK/France thing going strong in the US. If there is a WW1 in this scenario and it's around the same time (roughly 50 years later) and there is no clash between the US and UK/France between the ACW and the new war.... well, that's a long time to hold a grudge. The US might just sit it out, other than selling supplies to the highest bidder. Or, they might go after just the CSA and ignore anything British.

Maybe, but the ACW would have proved that GB is a direct threat to the US and thus Canada and the Bahamas in British possession are as well. It might well be felt Canada has to be taken out first to prevent the UK interfering this time. It isn't certain but it certainly is a possibility.

It is also unlikely that there will be no clash between the US and UK during TTL, at least diplomatically. There would be a lot resentment against GB that the government would have responded to if it wants to remain in power. This is likely to lead to something that causes resentment in GB against the US and it boils over for a good long time. Grudges that cause counter grudges and so on and so forth. At the very least they are unlikely to be friends.
 
Maybe, but the ACW would have proved that GB is a direct threat to the US and thus Canada and the Bahamas in British possession are as well. It might well be felt Canada has to be taken out first to prevent the UK interfering this time. It isn't certain but it certainly is a possibility.
again, if there is 50 years of peace, we'll have had several generations of US politicians come and go... and if the UK and France are both tied up in a bitter struggle against the German empire (assuming everything goes as in OTL for that), they are scarcely going to be a threat to the US overseas. The US will have time to conquer the CSA and then guard it's borders if need be.
 
You mean the election in which the Republicans held 16 of 18 governorships, controlled the state legislatures in all but 3 states, gained seats in the US Senate and held the House it being the first time in 20 years that the party in power retained it? https://www.historynet.com/lincolns-midterms-2.htm
The Republicans did lose their majority, they were forced to rely on the Unionist parties to retain it.

The POD here could be almost anywhere in 1861 or 1862, which means butterflies could change any number of factors.
 
again, if there is 50 years of peace, we'll have had several generations of US politicians come and go... and if the UK and France are both tied up in a bitter struggle against the German empire (assuming everything goes as in OTL for that), they are scarcely going to be a threat to the US overseas. The US will have time to conquer the CSA and then guard it's borders if need be.

And if the US actually allies itself with Prussia? This is far from unlikely in my book, particularly if France is also hostile. Bismark might not like the US but I doubt he would turn down an alliance, the man wasn't stupid. The US would still be a Great Power and very wealthy. Preferential tariffs at the expense of France and GB would be tempting.

There were and are a lot of German-Americans so such an alliance might help politically in both countries. If the US government feels an alliance with Prussia necessary or even just positive and pushes it in the press Germany gets a lot of favorable press in the US. This strengthens any pro-US feelings in the Reichstag because of the fact that countries like a favorable press. Austria-Hungry might get the same treatment, in fact, its problems with its various nationalities might gain it sympathy in the US seeing the various small states in the Empire the same as they do the Southern States of the CSA. Having the US allied with Prussia and AH is not good news for GB. It isn't certain by any means but it isn't wildly unlikely either.
 
The Republicans did lose their majority, they were forced to rely on the Unionist parties to retain it.

The POD here could be almost anywhere in 1861 or 1862, which means butterflies could change any number of factors.

Since the Unionists were pro-war it didn't effect war policy much at all and that is what counts.
 
And if the US actually allies itself with Prussia? This is far from unlikely in my book, particularly if France is also hostile. Bismark might not like the US but I doubt he would turn down an alliance, the man wasn't stupid. The US would still be a Great Power and very wealthy. Preferential tariffs at the expense of France and GB would be tempting.

There were and are a lot of German-Americans so such an alliance might help politically in both countries. If the US government feels an alliance with Prussia necessary or even just positive and pushes it in the press Germany gets a lot of favorable press in the US. This strengthens any pro-US feelings in the Reichstag because of the fact that countries like a favorable press. Austria-Hungry might get the same treatment, in fact, its problems with its various nationalities might gain it sympathy in the US seeing the various small states in the Empire the same as they do the Southern States of the CSA. Having the US allied with Prussia and AH is not good news for GB. It isn't certain by any means but it isn't wildly unlikely either.

Russia was also pro-Union during the war, so it would be interesting to really see where and if that alliance works.

I mean, considering that the UK is getting cotton from India and Egypt, that does in a way mitigate the value of Southern Cotton - especially considering that much of New England trade and textiles and food would be just as important for the UK. But at the same time it has to be just as valuable to Canada. That alone makes me wonder if in any Confederate TL you might get a semi-indepent Canada with its own Monarch, but still submissive to the Royals in the UK.

THat said, Russia is anti UK, but at the time is close with Prussia. So you may possibly see a Prussia-RUssia alliance, but that would depend on if Frederick and Wilhelm II go down the same path as OTL, that may change. Very much so considering that a Confederate Victory may delay German Unification in some way.
 
I think the US would go left, but also really revanchist. Some kind of left-populist thing where all the propaganda is nonstop about how racially harmonious the Union allegedly is (in reality it'd probably be more "Black people can run for office, but only in New England do they ever actually WIN anything"), how the Confederates are evil aristocrats who want to rape the daughters of American farmers and workers, America is the greatest democracy there is and we'll get our revenge on Britain and those Southern dogs (in reality, political machines are probably still there to some extent, albeit with a much more politically active and vengeful populace they're unlikely to be as overt or as powerful as OTL), stuff like that.

I expect a rematch in the 1880s or 1890s, which the Union will win in a landslide due to vastly superior population and industry and undoubtedly superior technology, against a decaying South barely capable of supporting its own economy on a good day. If GB tries to intervene, we probably see a retaliation from a Prusso-Russian alliance, which will turn into a massive continental war fast, which will likely end with the defeat of Austria and France, then the unhappy-for-Britain situation of staring down Mother Russia AND a continental hegemon, both of whom are hostile, while America chews up Canada.

1860s America is fucked against the Confederacy AND Britain. 1880s America? Can hold its own, and with friendly Germany and Russia, a win is easily possible.
 
War. No doubts. Not because treason or similar, but because Confederate expansion plans (Golden Circle) and Anglo-French actions in American Continent are an existential threat to US interests.
So this is my opinion about superpowers's positions, circa 1914, about incoming Mexican Revolution:

United States "What hell Richmond think to do? To stole our territory?!? Never! It's time that Uncle Sam give a lessons to these confederate asses"

Confederate States "Yes, we're able to stabilize South West! Now we have to move quickly towards West to get a strategic port on Pacific Ocean.... One moment... Madero took Mexico City??? Oh Dear God, it's a tragedy!"

Canada "Sssss.... Shut up, Quebec! If you stay still, Americans can not see you. At least I hope..."

United Kingdom "Panama is mine! We have to find a way to put the region in our hands! With good manners...or with bad ones! Meanwhile we could begin to mobilize our fleet in Caribbean Sea: Mexico will be weak..."

France "It's the last time that we give a fucked crutch to these incompetent Mexicans, them and their stupid Empire! Confederates have not take that damned city! Oh oui, now we're their allies, merde..."

Japan "These stupid western devils have to ruin always everything! Right now, we have just succeeded to put Hawaii in our hands... Now we should respect our alliance with Great Britain... Yeah... But what if..."

Others South American nations "Fight! Fight! Fight!"

Germany "Sell weapons and smile, boys! They wanted do the party without us"

Russia "Why Alaska doesn't work, sigh?"

Austria "Serbia will be destroyed, nothing else matters, mwhahahahah!"

Spain "My poor colonial empire..."

China "Zzzzzz... The client you called is busy with all-against-all civil war, please try later"

Italy *He looks at all that look themselves askance, whistling and smiling, with a rifle behind his back, unloaded*

Switzerland "Not my business"


For some reason, I heard all of this in the voices of their Hetalia characters.
 
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