RodentRevolution
Banned
You can not compare American Revolution and Civil War.
Erm, that sort of comparison is the whole point of history.
You can not compare American Revolution and Civil War.
We can assume all the territory of the original 11 seceding states was kept, and maybe Kentucky or even the Arizona Territory. I think most here agree the Confederates getting (and keeping) Missouri would be fairly unlikely.
well, the US can't be too anti-British, as trade between the US and UK was rather important for both of them; the US is going to have to swallow it's ire for a while and keep the trade routes going. That said... yeah, nationalism and militarism are going to be high up on the list for a while...If the Confederacy achieves independence through some sort of British intervention, even if that's just at sea with skirmishes on the Canadian border, American public opinion will turn anti-British for generations. Nationalism, militarism, and revanchism will become major driving forces of American political life.
well, the US can't be too anti-British, as trade between the US and UK was rather important for both of them; the US is going to have to swallow it's ire for a while and keep the trade routes going. That said... yeah, nationalism and militarism are going to be high up on the list for a while...
not for a while... if the UK is brokering a peace treaty in the ACW, it's likely that the US realizes it can't take on the UK at that time... can't match the RN. Not to mention, France is involved too. Unless there is something like TL-191 going on, the UK's stuff in the Americas is going to be safe for a while...And any holdings GB has in the Americas is likely going bye-bye in the great war it has.
not for a while... if the UK is brokering a peace treaty in the ACW, it's likely that the US realizes it can't take on the UK at that time... can't match the RN. Not to mention, France is involved too. Unless there is something like TL-191 going on, the UK's stuff in the Americas is going to be safe for a while...
What do you mean mediate? Why is the US going to accept this? Your answer lies in everything that answers these questions.
If the Confederacy achieves independence through some sort of British intervention, even if that's just at sea with skirmishes on the Canadian border, American public opinion will turn anti-British for generations. Nationalism, militarism, and revanchism will become major driving forces of American political life.
Why? It didn't happen after 1812. Austria and Germany became allies after the Austro-Prussian War, Britain and France allied after a dust-up in the Sudan, Italy allied with Germany after being on opposing sides in the Great War. America isn't going to hold a decades long grudge anymore than anyone else in history did. Trade will resume and both side will realize they're better off as friends.
I mean Britain will broker a peace between the US and CS. This is assuming the 1862 midterms go even worse for the Republicans, and the New York Draft Riots are happening while similar riots take place elsewhere. While a war with Britain might re-ignite patriotic sentiment, I think Lincoln would be smart enough to know fragile the Union economy and supply situation is.What do you mean mediate? Why is the US going to accept this? Your answer lies in everything that answers these questions.
If the Confederacy achieves independence through some sort of British intervention, even if that's just at sea with skirmishes on the Canadian border, American public opinion will turn anti-British for generations. Nationalism, militarism, and revanchism will become major driving forces of American political life.
maybe. One of the smarter parts of TL-191 was that dustup in How Few Remain in the 1890s, something to keep the anti-UK/France thing going strong in the US. If there is a WW1 in this scenario and it's around the same time (roughly 50 years later) and there is no clash between the US and UK/France between the ACW and the new war.... well, that's a long time to hold a grudge. The US might just sit it out, other than selling supplies to the highest bidder. Or, they might go after just the CSA and ignore anything British.Next great war is what I said. In the next great war GB and France are too busy fighting in Europe to deal with North America. Europe>>> North America to both GB and France.
I mean Britain will broker a peace between the US and CS. This is assuming the 1862 midterms go even worse for the Republicans, and the New York Draft Riots are happening while similar riots take place elsewhere. While a war with Britain might re-ignite patriotic sentiment, I think Lincoln would be smart enough to know fragile the Union economy and supply situation is.
maybe. One of the smarter parts of TL-191 was that dustup in How Few Remain in the 1890s, something to keep the anti-UK/France thing going strong in the US. If there is a WW1 in this scenario and it's around the same time (roughly 50 years later) and there is no clash between the US and UK/France between the ACW and the new war.... well, that's a long time to hold a grudge. The US might just sit it out, other than selling supplies to the highest bidder. Or, they might go after just the CSA and ignore anything British.
again, if there is 50 years of peace, we'll have had several generations of US politicians come and go... and if the UK and France are both tied up in a bitter struggle against the German empire (assuming everything goes as in OTL for that), they are scarcely going to be a threat to the US overseas. The US will have time to conquer the CSA and then guard it's borders if need be.Maybe, but the ACW would have proved that GB is a direct threat to the US and thus Canada and the Bahamas in British possession are as well. It might well be felt Canada has to be taken out first to prevent the UK interfering this time. It isn't certain but it certainly is a possibility.
The Republicans did lose their majority, they were forced to rely on the Unionist parties to retain it.You mean the election in which the Republicans held 16 of 18 governorships, controlled the state legislatures in all but 3 states, gained seats in the US Senate and held the House it being the first time in 20 years that the party in power retained it? https://www.historynet.com/lincolns-midterms-2.htm
again, if there is 50 years of peace, we'll have had several generations of US politicians come and go... and if the UK and France are both tied up in a bitter struggle against the German empire (assuming everything goes as in OTL for that), they are scarcely going to be a threat to the US overseas. The US will have time to conquer the CSA and then guard it's borders if need be.
The Republicans did lose their majority, they were forced to rely on the Unionist parties to retain it.
The POD here could be almost anywhere in 1861 or 1862, which means butterflies could change any number of factors.
And if the US actually allies itself with Prussia? This is far from unlikely in my book, particularly if France is also hostile. Bismark might not like the US but I doubt he would turn down an alliance, the man wasn't stupid. The US would still be a Great Power and very wealthy. Preferential tariffs at the expense of France and GB would be tempting.
There were and are a lot of German-Americans so such an alliance might help politically in both countries. If the US government feels an alliance with Prussia necessary or even just positive and pushes it in the press Germany gets a lot of favorable press in the US. This strengthens any pro-US feelings in the Reichstag because of the fact that countries like a favorable press. Austria-Hungry might get the same treatment, in fact, its problems with its various nationalities might gain it sympathy in the US seeing the various small states in the Empire the same as they do the Southern States of the CSA. Having the US allied with Prussia and AH is not good news for GB. It isn't certain by any means but it isn't wildly unlikely either.
War. No doubts. Not because treason or similar, but because Confederate expansion plans (Golden Circle) and Anglo-French actions in American Continent are an existential threat to US interests.
So this is my opinion about superpowers's positions, circa 1914, about incoming Mexican Revolution:
United States "What hell Richmond think to do? To stole our territory?!? Never! It's time that Uncle Sam give a lessons to these confederate asses"
Confederate States "Yes, we're able to stabilize South West! Now we have to move quickly towards West to get a strategic port on Pacific Ocean.... One moment... Madero took Mexico City??? Oh Dear God, it's a tragedy!"
Canada "Sssss.... Shut up, Quebec! If you stay still, Americans can not see you. At least I hope..."
United Kingdom "Panama is mine! We have to find a way to put the region in our hands! With good manners...or with bad ones! Meanwhile we could begin to mobilize our fleet in Caribbean Sea: Mexico will be weak..."
France "It's the last time that we give a fucked crutch to these incompetent Mexicans, them and their stupid Empire! Confederates have not take that damned city! Oh oui, now we're their allies, merde..."
Japan "These stupid western devils have to ruin always everything! Right now, we have just succeeded to put Hawaii in our hands... Now we should respect our alliance with Great Britain... Yeah... But what if..."
Others South American nations "Fight! Fight! Fight!"
Germany "Sell weapons and smile, boys! They wanted do the party without us"
Russia "Why Alaska doesn't work, sigh?"
Austria "Serbia will be destroyed, nothing else matters, mwhahahahah!"
Spain "My poor colonial empire..."
China "Zzzzzz... The client you called is busy with all-against-all civil war, please try later"
Italy *He looks at all that look themselves askance, whistling and smiling, with a rifle behind his back, unloaded*
Switzerland "Not my business"