US Politics with independent CSA

Assuming Britain or Britain and France mediate the Civil War in late 1862-early 1863, what will the landscape of US politics look like? One common opinion is that the Republicans will lose in 1864, but how likely would this be? Would they really be blamed for the defeat, or would the Copperheads and others soon be blamed for poisoning the home front against prosecuting the war? As the EP is never issued ITTL, would abolition in the rump USA become an issue, possibly causing the Radicals to leave the party?
 
Very UNFRIENDLY. And it's mildly saying.
United States will start second war in next 50 years with 100% chance. Nobody can forget treason of this scale
 
Very UNFRIENDLY. And it's mildly saying.
United States will start second war in next 50 years with 100% chance. Nobody can forget treason of this scale

Don't get this. Leaders of the CSA and USA are used to working together and are sometimes personal friends. Longstreet was a Groomsman at Grant's wedding. After the main issue is settled, they won't want to fight. Neither will a Northern population that has lost sons in a loosing cause to tell other people how to live will want to repeat the experience.

Also, whether forming the CSA is treason/illegal is not settled law. In fact there is no law against seccession and the 10th amendment seems to favor it. It's very likely a defeated USA will make it illegal henceforth. But those who fought in round one could easily convince themselves they were wrong to force the CSA to stay.

Yes, there could be further issues to raise tensions. But the default position of very unfriendly relations seems to be US present day people projecting our very anti CSA views back in time rather than a reflection of any 1860s reality.
 

Art

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I would ask a few questions about when in the war the shooting stops. 1861-62?
 
I suspect, without the South in the Union, politics would take a very sharp turn to the left.

For a time. But the Robber Barons want a docile work force just like the planters want the blacks in their place. The Confederates pointed that there wasn't much of a difference and they weren't entirely wrong.
Seriously, if you're only paid with script from the company store and live in company houses and effectively can't leave, how free are you?
 
For a time. But the Robber Barons want a docile work force just like the planters want the blacks in their place. The Confederates pointed that there wasn't much of a difference and they weren't entirely wrong.
Seriously, if you're only paid with script from the company store and live in company houses and effectively can't leave, how free are you?
The Gilded Age ended in OTL and without the South and its reactionary ideas the Progressive Era will last much longer. I expect a New Deal type Social Democratic situation would eventually manifest in Union politics.
 
Very UNFRIENDLY. And it's mildly saying.
United States will start second war in next 50 years with 100% chance. Nobody can forget treason of this scale

That explains why Britain tried to conquer America post-Revolution, even when the treasonous rebels had the audacity to declare war against them in 1812.
 
War. No doubts. Not because treason or similar, but because Confederate expansion plans (Golden Circle) and Anglo-French actions in American Continent are an existential threat to US interests.
So this is my opinion about superpowers's positions, circa 1914, about incoming Mexican Revolution:

United States "What hell Richmond think to do? To stole our territory?!? Never! It's time that Uncle Sam give a lessons to these confederate asses"

Confederate States "Yes, we're able to stabilize South West! Now we have to move quickly towards West to get a strategic port on Pacific Ocean.... One moment... Madero took Mexico City??? Oh Dear God, it's a tragedy!"

Canada "Sssss.... Shut up, Quebec! If you stay still, Americans can not see you. At least I hope..."

United Kingdom "Panama is mine! We have to find a way to put the region in our hands! With good manners...or with bad ones! Meanwhile we could begin to mobilize our fleet in Caribbean Sea: Mexico will be weak..."

France "It's the last time that we give a fucked crutch to these incompetent Mexicans, them and their stupid Empire! Confederates have not take that damned city! Oh oui, now we're their allies, merde..."

Japan "These stupid western devils have to ruin always everything! Right now, we have just succeeded to put Hawaii in our hands... Now we should respect our alliance with Great Britain... Yeah... But what if..."

Others South American nations "Fight! Fight! Fight!"

Germany "Sell weapons and smile, boys! They wanted do the party without us"

Russia "Why Alaska doesn't work, sigh?"

Austria "Serbia will be destroyed, nothing else matters, mwhahahahah!"

Spain "My poor colonial empire..."

China "Zzzzzz... The client you called is busy with all-against-all civil war, please try later"

Italy *He looks at all that look themselves askance, whistling and smiling, with a rifle behind his back, unloaded*

Switzerland "Not my business"
 
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On the one hand, the Republicans will be in an embarrassing position, with many likely blaming the GOP for losing the war. On the other hand, much of the Democratic Party’s base has just seceded.

Random thought: what might become of the nativist movement in the United States in such a scenario? The Know Nothings had not disappeared very long before this point.
 
That explains why Britain tried to conquer America post-Revolution, even when the treasonous rebels had the audacity to declare war against them in 1812.

The US is 3,000 miles away and was never part of GB proper merely its empire. Americans were never represented in parliament at all so never part of the government. The CSA was right next door, was part of the US proper, was represented in Congress and thus was part of the government.

The 13 colonies relationship with GB were closer to the US government's relationship with its Philippine colony than that of the US and CSA.
 
Assuming Britain or Britain and France mediate the Civil War in late 1862-early 1863, what will the landscape of US politics look like?

Does US politics at this time post war include the states of Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee, and even New Orleans, because by the time of this POD if we assume the whole Antietam/Frederickburg is a completer Confederate Victory, the above mentioned states are roughly 60-70% overrun/in union control by this time.
 
Does US politics at this time post war include the states of Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee, and even New Orleans, because by the time of this POD if we assume the whole Antietam/Frederickburg is a completer Confederate Victory, the above mentioned states are roughly 60-70% overrun/in union control by this time.
We can assume all the territory of the original 11 seceding states was kept, and maybe Kentucky or even the Arizona Territory. I think most here agree the Confederates getting (and keeping) Missouri would be fairly unlikely.
 
Really would depend on how the elections of 1868 went. If we're assuming the Democrats won in 1864 (obvious IMO) then you probably have a pretty wild 1868 election, with the Republicans fractured between Radicals and 'Stalwarts' who support the party platform of 1860, while the Democrats might break along lines dealing with finance and expansion. The Republicans will basically have to rebuild their 1860 coalition, while the Democrats have a base they can exploit. Monetary policy, railroads, military spending, and foreign relations will be the big bugbears of the late 60s and 70s.
 
We can assume all the territory of the original 11 seceding states was kept, and maybe Kentucky or even the Arizona Territory. I think most here agree the Confederates getting (and keeping) Missouri would be fairly unlikely.

Arizona is ASB, KY is unlikely with Missouri very unlikely.
 
This really depends on how the war progresses. While it may be concluded in early 63, this does not necessarily mean that is when our POD takes place.

AZ is straight out as it has a tiny population which means there is almost no native residents that can help the South which means he who can send the most troops will win which the US will win every time. Ky is possible with a lot of luck but it went early. Missouri is even harder because the population was less divided than KY.
 
AZ is straight out as it has a tiny population which means there is almost no native residents that can help the South which means he who can send the most troops will win which the US will win every time. Ky is possible with a lot of luck but it went early. Missouri is even harder because the population was less divided than KY.

THe POD to even get Kentucky would either have to be Polk/Pollow no violating the neutrality in the first place, or ASJ defeating and killing Grant at Shiloh, so that he can maybe retake all of the previous territory that they had lost....but he has to deal with Buell, Rosecrans and Halleck, which might be interesting in itself.

But at the moment that really on gets them Tennessee.
 
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