As far as I can see, the most plausible end to this scenario is the dreaded Red Tide, possibly with English invasions of France and the Low Countries. There was NO real Lend-Lease benefits in '41, and after the winter of '41 the Soviets held all the cards.
There is a great possibility of a German '42 offensive reaching Moscow- but that is not a good thing for the Axis! Considering Hitler's actions, it's likely that he would throw everything into a conquest of Moscow once it was besieged, and that would be disastrous for the Wehrmacht. Moscow would be like Stalingrad, except larger, better-defended, with better fortifications, more men, greater patriotism among the natives, and, being the hub of Soviet railways, easy to relieve and refresh with more manpower throughout the battle.
Moscow would be a hellish waste for the German army, and probably lead to a collapse of both the army and morale; following that, the Soviets simply had to repeat what they did historically: slowly overwhelm the Germans and push them back in a deliberate, methodical manner. They'd have to be even slower than OTL without American supplies and food to energize them, but once the Wehrmacht's been ground down and collapsed it wouldn't be unreasonable for them to reach Berlin by '46.
And if the Churchill panics and decides to use some gas attacks against Germany, then a Soviet Europe suddenly looks very, very possible.
There is a great possibility of a German '42 offensive reaching Moscow- but that is not a good thing for the Axis! Considering Hitler's actions, it's likely that he would throw everything into a conquest of Moscow once it was besieged, and that would be disastrous for the Wehrmacht. Moscow would be like Stalingrad, except larger, better-defended, with better fortifications, more men, greater patriotism among the natives, and, being the hub of Soviet railways, easy to relieve and refresh with more manpower throughout the battle.
Moscow would be a hellish waste for the German army, and probably lead to a collapse of both the army and morale; following that, the Soviets simply had to repeat what they did historically: slowly overwhelm the Germans and push them back in a deliberate, methodical manner. They'd have to be even slower than OTL without American supplies and food to energize them, but once the Wehrmacht's been ground down and collapsed it wouldn't be unreasonable for them to reach Berlin by '46.
And if the Churchill panics and decides to use some gas attacks against Germany, then a Soviet Europe suddenly looks very, very possible.