US Invasion of Middle East [with a difference]

The difference is it's in December 1973

After the oil shock, according to US Defence Secretary James Schlesinger "it was no longer obvious to him that the United States could not use force." [he actually said that according to the report on the BBC web site - see below]

US forces invade Kuwait, Eastern Saudi Arabia, and the UAE

What happens next?


References:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3333995.stm <--- details of the invasion plan in here


http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/01/09/edyamani_ed3_.php

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040101.wbritus0101/BNStory/International/
 
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Party at the Kremlin?

The US public is strongly divided on the morality of one foreign war. A generation of young men has been put through the meat grinder in Nam. The economy is entering a downward spiral, the allies are already unhappy having had to absorb the US inflation export and with oil prices going through the roof, the mood isn't going to get better anytime soon. America is not going to be a happy place, so do you envision

- a severe crackdown followed by the hawks ramming through their agenda (for which they would probably still have a narrow majority) or

- a fragile war coalition dodging hard choices and juggling public dissent and international disapproval?

Either way is not a nice thing to ponder. Now, it is unlikely you'd see an insurgency of the Iraqi kind erupt, but on the other hand, do you recall what the Brits meant when they said keeny meeny? With a little help from their revolutionary brethren in Iraq and Syria and a lot of good old Soviet hardware, the locals will make the American occupation a decidedly unpleasant one. The US might choose to expand the war, but at this point the Soviets are likely to step up to the brink and render either Syria ore Iraq (or both) effective sanctuary. The options at this point narrow down to staying and bleeding or leaving and losing face.

Ow.

Question - how much oil did the USSR pump back then, and how quickly could they expand production? We're around the time the West Germans pondered hooking up to the Druzhba line. If there is enough juice to spare, this could become Western Europe's economic lifeline when the locals blow the Gulf oil infrastructure to hell. If I were the Kremlin, I'd subsidise exports, even. My people can be cold and miserable for a winter or two if it gives me a grip on the core EU's balls a few years down the line.
 
There was some released British documents of some sort released in the last few years on this subject. Summed up, they acknowledged that Britain (and presumedly other European governments) would follow along in the operation
to seize the oil infrastructure. An actual occupation wasn't in the plans per say: after the invasion, troops would be moved to guard the oil fields and infrastructure, the rest would be kept back by whatever means were needed, and the oil revenues would be diverted into an internationally managed trust fund of sorts.
 
Never happen, The entire was exhausted from the Vietnam War. Assuming anyone was that dumb to actually try it complete and utter disaster. The International political repercussions would be catastrophic to US interests world wide. The mere fact that the European's were to participate smacks of Colonialism the 70's were not the Colonial period Gunboat diplomacy was passé. To think there wouldn't be an insurgency of epic proportions is ludicrous the seeds for modern terrorism were already in place and would expand exceptionally.
 
You could see such a thing happening if peace talks break down in the October War and the Israelis destroy the Egyptian Third Army and then run riot into the Nile Delta (they won't try something silly like take Cairo, but a symbolic move, say, of crossing the Nile south of Cairo or even putting the Star of David on top of the Great Pyramid (g).) Meanwhile the Oil shieks bear down on the oil embargo. Enough gas shortages, and most people will forget their post Vietnam war weariness and will be more than willing to have at the Arabs.
 
BTW, Nixon might just love a spendid little war in the Middle East, as long as it stayed popular. Watergate? What's that? You turned on the oil spigots again, so all is forgiven.
 
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