US Invades Brazil in WW2

Operation Rubber: basically the US was afraid of Brazilian sympathies to the Axis and wanted access to Brazilian ports as they were the closest in the Americas to North Africa. So after Pearl Harbor, the military made plans to invade Brazil but held off after Vargas agreed to allow the US to use Brazil's airfields.

What if the US decides to go through with Plan Rubber, how would the invasion go, what would be the larger effect on the War?
 
I doubt the US would want to face a front on the very continent its part of. They already had trouble with Japan and the European axis, so having a "American theater" would not help matters. An invasion of Brazil would also make other countries in Latin America to join the war, making the war much more bloody and longer-lasting.
 

Lusitania

Donor
The American plan was a last resort plan to guarantee American access to Brazilian rubber. It was also a negotiation tactic to let Brazilians know that they Americans /Allies expected complete access to Brazilian rubber and would not tolerate Axis friendly country in the continent.
 
I doubt the US would want to face a front on the very continent its part of. They already had trouble with Japan and the European axis, so having a "American theater" would not help matters. An invasion of Brazil would also make other countries in Latin America to join the war, making the war much more bloody and longer-lasting.

British and Soviets invaded Iran in 1941 despite the situation they were in to secure their oil interests there and remove a leader they saw as Axis friendly. The Americans were certainly concerned enough about the situation in Brazil to draft Operation Rubber and had begun making preparations if it was necessary. If they thought they could pull off a quick capitulation, like the British and Soviets did, I think they would be willing to open that second theatre. Whether they could get that quick capitulation is another matter.
 
Obviously the U.S. invading anywhere, especially Latin America, will end up as a quagmire where they are seen as a hated bully. But rather than the usual situation where the U.S. dominates everything in a massive subjugation, what if it's a quick invasion and occupation of like one port? They would still be hated, but it's not like a full-on war.
 
It's gonna draw resources. Not least because Brazil has a pair of dreadnoughts. Aged as they are, they are a well-armoured threat. I would not make a landing without neutralising them by aircraft, submarine or warship.
 
Well Brazil would not commit a division plus support units in Italy in such a scenario.

I don't see the British being involved here, so it would be exclusively a US operation. The US would likely have to commit at least three or four divisions plus support units, naval assets, etc. Much of which might be needed to stay for garrison duty going forward.

There's no way to know how other nations in the region will or will not react and keeping 100 thousand troops tied up in Brazil is going to be 100 thousand troops unavailable in Europe or the Pacific.
 
Invasion would be extremely counter productive considering Brazil would join the Allies just seven months after Pearl Harbor. In addition, the USA can just offer to invest more and help brazilian industrialization like they OTL. Vargas was an opportunist, he'll pick the better deal - and joining the Allies and receiving big investments is the better deal, like OTL.
 
As soon they declare war, Vargas would resign and the Brazilian government would capitulate. Brazil couldn't even consider fighting the Americans at the time, we were just kick-starting our industrialization and while the Brazilian army numvered a million man, they were not as equipped as the American army neither mechanised or even had the sufficient air support.

The only good side is that it would ruin the American popularity with south americanSouth American countries for the decades or even centuries to come. Many coups would be aborted.
 
Don't forget, Brazil became an active participant in the war, both Naval forces in the South Atlantic, and sending an army to aid in the fighting against Germany in Italy.
 

Lusitania

Donor
As soon they declare war, Vargas would resign and the Brazilian government would capitulate. Brazil couldn't even consider fighting the Americans at the time, we were just kick-starting our industrialization and while the Brazilian army numvered a million man, they were not as equipped as the American army neither mechanised or even had the sufficient air support.

The only good side is that it would ruin the American popularity with south americanSouth American countries for the decades or even centuries to come. Many coups would be aborted.
True, but I wonder if the resignation of Vargas would be enough or if the US would still try and occupy.

Note the rubber plantations / sources are along the Amazon river so occupying the Brazilian Cost would not provide them with the rubber sources since they over 1000 miles north. Same with occupying the Amazon still leave the populated areas free. Plus would nationalists / communists attack the garrison troops?
 
Don't forget, Brazil became an active participant in the war, both Naval forces in the South Atlantic, and sending an army to aid in the fighting against Germany in Italy.

A few uboats less are sunk and the allies advance just a handful of km less in Europe. While Brazil did had a potential to send a massive force to europe, they had to be equipped and trained by the Americans, and so just about 25 thousand were finished in time, not enought to affect the outcome of the war.
 
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True, but I wonder if the resignation of Vargas would be enough or if the US would still try and occupy.

Note the rubber plantations / sources are along the Amazon river so occupying the Brazilian Cost would not provide them with the rubber sources since they over 1000 miles north. Same with occupying the Amazon still leave the populated areas free. Plus would nationalists / communists attack the garrison troops?

The rubber plantations would work as long the Americans pays the owners to produce. The nationalists and communists couldn't do much, maybe blow one truck here and another there. The communists tried a coup in 1935 and failed miserably, prompting Vargas to persecute them, and with the labour regulations that Vargas passes the communists lost their support in he population. The anti Vargas nationalists, like the integralists were on a similar situation, and the remained nationalists were intrinsically connected to Vargas, had him quit, they would be crushed.
However, Vargas could order guns and bombs to be stored and assign some figure like Filinto Müller (chief odlf the secret police) to do what you are suggesting, but the damage would be negigiblne on the full picture of the war.
 
The American plan was a last resort plan to guarantee American access to Brazilian rubber. It was also a negotiation tactic to let Brazilians know that they Americans /Allies expected complete access to Brazilian rubber and would not tolerate Axis friendly country in the continent.

The only description I have read on Operation RUBBER, that draws from direct research into the original documents was in the Naval Institute Proceedings over a decade ago. The author described the plan as aimed at seizing the series of all weather airfields spotted along Brazils northern coast. These airfields were used by the Allies for the trans African/African air route. There were also, on paper at least in transport range of VLR Axis cargo aircraft & in theory vulnerable to Axis airborne offensive from Dakar & other west Africa airfields in Axis hands. The author found this intelligence analysis of the north Brazilian vulnerability came from the Office of Naval Intelligence, and suggests they were a bit overwrought in their findings. In any case the fact is King as the recent appointed Chief of Naval Operations approved a rehearsal of Plan RUBBER. This was executed by Amphibious Forces Atlantic Fleet in March 1942. The 1st Marine Division & 9th Inf Div were landed on the North Carolina Coast. That area resembled the target area of Brazil. That is a long chain of sandy coastal islands fronting a interior of linked bays, estuaries, coastal marshes, and alternating forrest and farms further inland. There was nothing in this article that described Plan RUBBER as aimed at the urban centers of southern Brazil.

Through early 1942 the air route was serviced by civilian contractors, mostly US airline companies and Brazilian subcontractors. During 1942 the US negotiated the ability to station unarmed US military personnel at the airfield as part of the service establishment. Exactly how many military personnel were sent is not clear from the Proceedings article I read.

A look at the old maps of Brazil from the 1950s & 60s show the north coast as relatively isolated from the densely populated southern region. The maps show no interior population or infrastructure of note, and no overland or trans Amazon River connection with the population centers of the south. The coastal population of northern Brazil depended on sea & air transport for communication with the rest of the nation.
 

Lusitania

Donor
So would the Brazilians accept American occupation or fight back? Also would be there need to two occupying Armies, or would be Americans only occupy the north and get the Brazilian "Vinchy" type government to self control and manage the coastal populated areas?
 
So would the Brazilians accept American occupation or fight back? Also would be there need to two occupying Armies, or would be Americans only occupy the north and get the Brazilian "Vinchy" type government to self control and manage the coastal populated areas?

The great majority would, as they accept a us sponsored dictatorship that lasted 21 years, and the army was a fanboy of the American one. You could expect some minor resistance like one truck or another being blown up and sacked, and some factories intentionally providing less resources than needed, but that is it.

Some people even would find prestigious, " Hah, we are not the USA, but at least our current junta is led by them! Awesome!!"
 
The great majority would, as they accept a us sponsored dictatorship that lasted 21 years, and the army was a fanboy of the American one. You could expect some minor resistance like one truck or another being blown up and sacked, and some factories intentionally providing less resources than needed, but that is it.

Some people even would find prestigious, " Hah, we are not the USA, but at least our current junta is led by them! Awesome!!"

I don't know, I'd feel like any pro-American sentiments would disappear pretty quickly, though a new US back regime could definitely stay in power for some time, but it would likely fall to revolution at some point after the War.
 
I don't know, I'd feel like any pro-American sentiments would disappear pretty quickly, though a new US back regime could definitely stay in power for some time, but it would likely fall to revolution at some point after the War.


Brazil never really had a revolution, usually the change of power happened by agreements by both sides, like the end of the military junta, or with a excluded political and inteplecinte elite removing the old one by force like in the 1930 revolution. Brazil was the last Latin American country to be independent and one of the last in the world to abolish slavery, in general our people dontd care about tyranny, and they even support it on some cases. The usa might withdraw their troops after wwii and allow elections to happen, but it would fit on the bilateral agreement narrative, not revolution.
 
Brazil never really had a revolution, usually the change of power happened by agreements by both sides, like the end of the military junta, or with a excluded political and inteplecinte elite removing the old one by force like in the 1930 revolution. Brazil was the last Latin American country to be independent and one of the last in the world to abolish slavery, in general our people dontd care about tyranny, and they even support it on some cases. The usa might withdraw their troops after wwii and allow elections to happen, but it would fit on the bilateral agreement narrative, not revolution.

That's a pretty valid point, but I still think a regime installed as a result of a foreign invasion/occupation would be more likely to face a more violent opposition/removal.
 
Operation Rubber: basically the US was afraid of Brazilian sympathies to the Axis and wanted access to Brazilian ports as they were the closest in the Americas to North Africa. So after Pearl Harbor, the military made plans to invade Brazil but held off after Vargas agreed to allow the US to use Brazil's airfields.

What if the US decides to go through with Plan Rubber, how would the invasion go, what would be the larger effect on the War?

This could only happen if Vargas was crazy enough to side with the Germans--something extremely unlikely to happen despite the right-wing authoritarian character of the Estado Novo. (To the extent it had any ideological source in Europe it was closer to Salazar's Portugal than to Germany or even Italy).

Now, if the Integralists had gained control of Brazil, that would be another story... https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/integralist-brazil.314876/#post-9093839 But as it is, I think we're just talking about one of the countless contingency plans that had no real chance of being implemented.
 
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