US intervenes in 2008 Russia-Georgia war

[Armored Diplomacy]

Then Russian Air Force will sooner or later send 40 bombers to reduce the airport to rubble. Will US fighters engage Russian bombers?

I think the better question is, will the Russians dare to launch an attack against the airport and risk killing US personnel or a US response?

Russia may be a great power, but it is not nearly as powerful as the USA, and it would get curbstomped if it tries to pick a fight. The Russians would protest heavily, but I don't think they would risk open conflict with the US.

During the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Israel did not attack Soviet ships and planes supplying the Arabs, and the Arabs did not attack US cargo aircraft on their way to Israel. Nobody was going to risk war with a superpower. So don't bet on it.

 

[Orville_third]

WI the US decided instead to launch a military resupply airlift to Georgia. US cargo planes with fighter escorts would be landing at Tbilisi International Airport with loads of weaponry, especially anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles.

In my opinion, that would be far more likely, and far less risky.

The US did allow for Georgia's troops in Iraq to be flown back. (The only withdrawal they approved...) The only thing preventing a US attack on Russia was over stretch and MAD. The Bush administration was considering it. There would not have been much opposition domestically. (Only non-interventionists, pacifists, Knee-Jerk Bush opponents (maybe) and Dana Rohrbacher (The only politician who made any Pro-Ossetia statement) were opposed to it.)
And it would not go up to WWIII immediately. I could see Russia launching some strikes on Prudhoe Bay, Valdez and the Trans-Alaska Pipeline.

 

[Herzen's love-child]

And it would not go up to WWIII immediately. I could see Russia launching some strikes on Prudhoe Bay, Valdez and the Trans-Alaska Pipeline.

To quote Leela in Futurama, "O, Lord!"

 

[EnglishCanuck]

I think the better question is, will the Russians dare to launch an attack against the airport and risk killing US personnel or a US response?

Russia may be a great power, but it is not nearly as powerful as the USA, and it would get curbstomped if it tries to pick a fight. The Russians would protest heavily, but I don't think they would risk open conflict with the US?

During the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Israel did not attack Soviet ships and planes supplying the Arabs, and the Arabs did not attack US cargo aircraft on their way to Israel. Nobody was not going to risk war with a superpower. So don't bet on it.

No. They would simply surround the US airbases and 'persuade' their friends in the Stans to interfere as much as possible (even outright deny) access from US bases and really mess up their support in Iraq and Afghanistan and then sell more arms to Syria.

The US could not afford to challenge Russia openly without serious consequences and both they and the Russians knew this. That and any US attack on the Roki tunnel would most likely have been suicide (lack of safe haven or forces available).

 

[aktarian]

How vital was the Roki tunnel? This is probably one of those things I'd of asked Mac about but no use crying over spilt milk. Since it was still technically in Georgian territory, even if it was controlled by the South Ossetians no-one officially recognised them until after the war, the Georgian government could ask the US to hit their end with a couple of cruise missiles or drop a bomb on it via a B-2 bomber at H-hour as they're starting their attacks into South Ossetia. Of course it's going to seriously piss off Russia but talk of nuclear weapons is just silly, at best the they Russians will find ways to fuck back with the US via diplomatic means in other global affairs or supporting groups the they doesn't like. At any rate it could help even things up for the Georgians somewhat by throwing a very large spanner in Russia's logistics.

Unlikely. For one Georgia didn't know Russia would move in so fast (if they would have they wouldn't attack in the first place) so blowing it up on H-hour makes no sense. For two it seems Gorgia didn't inform US what's going to happen so any strike plan would take time to put together. Combine those two together and you get to the point when US strike will hit Russian forces moving in, making Bush say "Yeah, I don't think that's such a good idea."

 

[seraphim74]

Originally posted by Peter Parker

I think the better question is, will the Russians dare to launch an attack against the airport and risk killing US personnel or a US response?
Russia may be a great power, but it is not nearly as powerful as the USA, and it would get curbstomped if it tries to pick a fight. The Russians would protest heavily, but I don't think they would risk open conflict with the US.
During the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Israel did not attack Soviet ships and planes supplying the Arabs, and the Arabs did not attack US cargo aircraft on their way to Israel. Nobody was going to risk war with a superpower. So don't bet on it.

I think they would - they would just time it so there would be no US planes there at the time (or as few as possible). Of course the decision of such action would depend of the Georgian resistance. Should US aid become a serious problem for Russian forces, I think Russia would make a move. And curbstomping Russia is not so easy as it looks. The US forces are stretched, they fight an unpopular war, and now they should engage a great power. And the Russians have way to retaliate - I know I become boring, but remeber Tadjikistan? The problem is US government has to sell it to American people, and that is IMHO very doubtful, considering that for many people the conflict was started by Georgia.
And during the Yom-Kippur War situation was somewhat different. The US proxy (Israel) was fighting Soviet proxies. Neither side dared to mess with powerful protector of the other side. This time one power was directly involved.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

If the U.S. aids Georgia, Russia can easily threaten to shutoff the oil pipeline for the nations of Poland, Germany, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and France. All of them NATO allies. They proved they could be selective in their shutdowns of oil in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Considering that the embargo would begin in August 2008, a 6-month embargo until March 2009, will cause the price of oil to skyrocket throughout Western Europe during the autumn and winter months. The price of oil would further go up amidst economic speculation in the United States and Japan.

So during an election year, just 3 months until the election, an American President, wants to risk triggering an economic crash in Western Europe, just as Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Citigroup, and AIG all have filed for bankruptcy and have demanded a bailout for the last 4 months....

With interconnected markets, the super powers can use high-finance to do more damage to each other than one would imagine....

 

[Orville_third]

Two problems with recent posts. For one, the establishment began condemning Georgia even after it was clear Georgia was the aggressor- and broke the cease fire to boot! Second, how would a Russian response affect the election when people from both major parties (plus the Connecticut for Lieberman party) condemned Russia? Obama may have called for both sides to show restraint, but he hasn't been neutral or positive towards Russia (don't get me started).

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Second, how would a Russian response affect the election when people from both major parties (plus the Connecticut for Lieberman party) condemned Russia? Obama may have called for both sides to show restraint, but he hasn't been neutral or positive towards Russia (don't get me started).

The very next day, Putin launches an oil embargo against NATO and Western Europe causing oil prices to shoot up instantly in Western Europe, the United States and Japan.

Obama and Democratic Party leaders point out that the "cowboy diplomacy" and "shoot from the hip attitude" of the Bush administration which has drawn the United States into two wars, which have turned into quagmires, now threatens to further destabilize the Western world and its economies. As you have pointed out, Obama has called for restraint and Bush has come out "guns ablazin'.." For John McCain, this is a political disaster, just people are dealing with Sarah Palin as his VP pick...

 

[John Farson]

The very next day, Putin launches an oil embargo against NATO and Western Europe causing oil prices to shoot up instantly in Western Europe, the United States and Japan.

Obama and Democratic Party leaders point out that the "cowboy diplomacy" and "shoot from the hip attitude" of the Bush administration which has drawn the United States into two wars, which have turned into quagmires, now threatens to further destabilize the Western world and its economies. As you have pointed out, Obama has called for restraint and Bush has come out "guns ablazin'.." For John McCain, this is a political disaster, just people are dealing with Sarah Palin as his VP pick...

So how would the electoral map look, if we presume that the oil embargo is as bad as it gets?

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

So how would the electoral map look, if we presume that the oil embargo is as bad as it gets?

Starting in October and November, you have the states of Missouri, Arkansas,Tennessee, and Nebraska going for Obama/Biden, leading to a bigger electoral blowout since Walter Mondale lost the 1984 election to Ronald Reagan....

 

[John Farson]

Starting in October and November, you have the states of Missouri, Arkansas,Tennessee, and Nebraska going for Obama/Biden, leading to a bigger electoral blowout since Walter Mondale lost the 1984 election to Ronald Reagan....

Probably add Montana as well, that was also close.

Though even that is "only" 400 EVs, which is still 27 EVs less than what GHWB got in 1988.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Probably add Montana as well, that was also close.

Though even that is "only" 400 EVs, which is still 27 EVs less than what GHWB got in 1988.

True, but also consider that this also means a massive change in the Congressional delegation, with the Democrats taking both the House and Senate. GOP leaders would be in panic mode at this point....

 

[John Farson]

True, but also consider that this also means a massive change in the Congressional delegation, with the Democrats taking both the House and Senate. GOP leaders would be in panic mode at this point....

And governorships and state legislatures.

 

[General Tirpitz]

Russia wouldn't start the WWIII against the USA over some few small separatist republics in Georgia. I'm not sure why people think they would be so irrational. Even IOTL the war was very expensive for Russia. OTOH the assumption that the USA would use force against Russia is also ridiculous. Just because the option was discussed doesn't mean they really would have done that.

 

[Incognito]

Now, in the event that Russia does indeed go binonkers and is still sitting on Georgia's neck a few months later AND suffering from a breakdown in occupation troop discipline of the usual rape and pillage variety, then we'll see a growing series of UN resolutions condemning the move with the U.S. threatening sanctions and such. On the ground, we could see the U.S. quietly supporting and supplying Georgian resistance forces and increasing pressure on the diplomatic front for Russia to pull out. The event of actual U.S.-Russian hostilities would stem from isolated incidents of proximity vs. jumpy nerves and would be played down by the respective militaries as quickly as possible.

I'm curious what would happen if US decided to back Chechen rebels ala the way it backed Mujahideen to mess things up for Russia. For example, this is what the Caucasian Emirate had to say during the war:

On August 9, 2008 in response to the conflict between Georgia and Russia, Movladi Udugov stated that "for the time being neither Tbilisi nor Washington has appealed to us with any requests or offers" to fight alongside Georgian forces against the Russian forces. Udugov also noted: "But I clearly can say that the command of the Caucasus Emirate is following with great interest the development of the situation."[30]

Now imagine Chechen Islamist and Georgian fighters, all supplied by US, fighting Russians in both North and South Caucasus. The whole region would be screwed .

 

[Orville_third]

The very next day, Putin launches an oil embargo against NATO and Western Europe causing oil prices to shoot up instantly in Western Europe, the United States and Japan.

Obama and Democratic Party leaders point out that the "cowboy diplomacy" and "shoot from the hip attitude" of the Bush administration which has drawn the United States into two wars, which have turned into quagmires, now threatens to further destabilize the Western world and its economies. As you have pointed out, Obama has called for restraint and Bush has come out "guns ablazin'.." For John McCain, this is a political disaster, just people are dealing with Sarah Palin as his VP pick...

Big problem- Biden backs the Georgians. So, TBMK do Clinton and Kerry. (Now, this could mean a vote increase for Barr, Baldwin and McKinney...)

I am planning a TL in which the US does intervene- but not on the Georgian side... It will result in changes in the election- it'll be closer, Palin will get more respect, at least two significant political figures will be out of power...and the world may get a lot more unstable...

 

[Herzen's love-child]

What General Tirpitz said!

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Big problem- Biden backs the Georgians. So, TBMK do Clinton and Kerry. (Now, this could mean a vote increase for Barr, Baldwin and McKinney...).

Actually, that is perfect for the situation. President-elect Obama can say he urged restraint from Russia, and that with his Vice-President supports the Georgians, but unlike the Bush administration and John McCain he is pledged to diplomacy rather than "gunboat diplomacy". This wins him "brownie-points" with the international community....

 

[Urban fox]

Russia wouldn't start the WWIII against the USA over some few small separatist republics in Georgia. I'm not sure why people think they would be so irrational. Even IOTL the war was very expensive for Russia. OTOH the assumption that the USA would use force against Russia is also ridiculous. Just because the option was discussed doesn't mean they really would have done that.

Maybe, but whatever you think of Bush goverment. It wasnt stupid enough to try and intervene directly in a turf war in the Caucasus right on Russia’s border. So this whole thread is ASB.

Russia has far better power-projection in the region than the US. Also any shots-fired between the two could seriously strain NATO to breaking point. No-one in the major EU countries would want to be dragged into a war because the US goverment has a sucide-pact with a second-rate Mussolini clone like Saakashvili.