Is it at all plausible for the US to attack Japan first, around the time of OTL pearl harbour?
Japan being allowed to start the war how they like, with time and location that works best for them, seems foolish to me.Maybe. Japan had finalized their war plans for the Southern Resource Area and initial attacks on the Philippines and Pearl Harbor by November. If the US received incontrovertible intelligence of Japanese intentions at that time, it might spur Roosevelt to get his licks in first, using the Japanese war plans as a casus belli. It's probably more likely that the Philippines and Hawai'i are alerted and prepared as much as possible and Japan is still allowed to strike the first blow, though.
US wants to delay a Pacific war as much as possible, it starting in 1944 would be ideal for them, as the heavies from the Two Ocean Navy would start showing up then. However every bit of delay means US islands are better fortified with more troops stood up, delay works for the USJapan being allowed to start the war how they like, with time and location that works best for them, seems foolish to me.
Any idea how the US would initiate the Pacific war if it could? None of the Japanese islands seem quite as exposed as Hawaii.
Perhaps a large force is sent to the Philippines, which attempts to keep the Japanese north and east of Taiwan?
Japan being allowed to start the war how they like, with time and location that works best for them, seems foolish to me.
Any idea how the US would initiate the Pacific war if it could? None of the Japanese islands seem quite as exposed as Hawaii.
Perhaps a large force is sent to the Philippines, which attempts to keep the Japanese north and east of Taiwan?
If Japan attacks Malaya and DEI and invades the British and Dutch islands throughout the below map, I think the US will be pressed to war, though not immediately. The US would not sit by whilst the Philippines were surrounded.Is it at all plausible for the US to attack Japan first, around the time of OTL pearl harbour?
In this scenario, it's a matter of when the US gets wind of Japanese intentions. In November, with less than a month until Pearl Harbor, may be too little time to plan an offensive operation of their own, put together a logistics train, and stage forward to the Philippines. They may instead try to intercept the Kido Butai on the high seas en route to Hawai'i, but I think a direct attack on Japanese territory a la Pearl Harbor is to ambitious for the USN at this point.
So; 1941: the US luckily intercepts some communications, finds clear proof the Japanese intend war.... In the first days of December a US fleet ambushes the Japanese north west of Hawaii, and a battle something like midway takes place, where Japan looses ....
How much would this change the war? I've found a few threads on what if Pearl Harbour went worse for the Japanese / better for the Americans, but nothing quite like this.
In this scenario, it's a matter of when the US gets wind of Japanese intentions. In November, with less than a month until Pearl Harbor, may be too little time to plan an offensive operation of their own, put together a logistics train, and stage forward to the Philippines. They may instead try to intercept the Kido Butai on the high seas en route to Hawai'i, but I think a direct attack on Japanese territory a la Pearl Harbor is too ambitious for the USN at this point.
Neither the previous War Plan Orange, the Successor Rainbow plans, & the Pacific Fleet plans (ie: WPP-46) proposed more than raids and small opportunistic operations in the first 12 to 18 months, or mid 1943. During the 1920s & 30s fleet exercises and map exercises had repeatedly shown trying to charge off to the Phillipines prematurely was a losing proposition.
Isn't the army very short on oil, like a year's supply? Can Japan seize south-east asia and it's resources with the Pearl Harbour force sunk?The Navy might be ready to negotiate, but the Army would veto this and require months or years to accept reality.
If Japan attacks Malaya and DEI and invades the British and Dutch islands throughout the below map, I think the US will be pressed to war, though not immediately. The US would not sit by whilst the Philippines were surrounded.
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In the first days of December a US fleet ambushes the Japanese north west of Hawaii, and a battle something like midway takes place, where Japan looses all 6 carriers with the US loosing 1 and 1 being very heavily damaged.