alternatehistory.com

Seems like we should have discussed this one before, but I can't remember it ever coming up.

Although the US 1980 presidential election was a landslide in the electoral college, this represented a development in the formerly close polls in the last few months, and it's not inconceivable that Carter could have pulled off a victory, albeit a fairly narrow one. No Ted Kennedy primary challenge, hostage crisis resolved, Reagan makes gaffes in debates, etc. Let's say it happens, and the years 1980-1984 show a reasonable recovery for the US economy but probably lacking the 'Morning in America' psychological sense just because Carter doesn't have the same kind of charisma and personal connectivity as Reagan. Who would be the candidates for the two parties in 1984?

Some points for discussion:

  • Reagan himself is probably too old to run again. But would this discredit his wing of the party or not, given how close an election it was?
  • Would Mondale be viewed as a continuation of the Carter administration or not? There were significant differences between the men. I could see a Mondale campaign as being comparable to Gore's in 2000 in OTL, with him distancing himself from the administration.
  • Would this be an election in which there's a big jump in the age of the candidates of both parties downwards compared to the last few elections as a younger generation comes up, like 1960 in OTL?
  • OTL, the Republicans viewed John B. Anderson's independent candidacy as mainly taking votes from Carter and so when Carter refused to a three-person debate including Anderson, Reagan debated Anderson alone. In retrospect however analysis has mainly said Anderson took votes about equally from both candidates. So in a situation where Reagan narrowly loses, do the Republicans blame Anderson?
  • In a similar vein, Anderson's candidacy in a close election is likely to deny Carter a majority of the popular vote (Reagan only barely managed a majority in OTL, winning 50.7% of the vote). Will the Republicans use this as the basis for a campaign claiming Carter is somehow 'illegitimate' or has 'no mandate' like they did to Clinton in OTL?
  • Related--OTL the Republicans won control of the Senate in 1980 for the first time in nearly 30 years, and gained ground in the House but failed to take control. This is often attributed to Reagan's coattails, the so-called 'Reagan Revolution'. Debatable how much it would be affected by a less successful Reagan campaign, but could we instead see the Republicans using the 'illegitimate Carter' argument to run an OTL 1994 or 2010 style campaign for Congress in 1982 and making big breakthroughs? (In OTL, with the Republicans holding the White House, they lost ground in the House in 1982).

Let's discuss this.
Top