US: If Carter won in 1980, who would be the candidates in 1984?

Though macabre this strikes me as a rather interesting prospect. Worth a timeline even.

I agree; I'm somewhat ashamed I haven't ever thought of it before! If I knew more about the history of the 1980s in general, and Walter Mondale in particualr, I'd enjoy taking a quick stab at it. Anyone else want to see where this would lead?
 
Walter Mondale with an LBJ-level landslide. The mind boggles.

Still less than the Reagan landslide of 1984. And, you have to figure, if Mondale becomes an inspiring figure in the wake of the Carter assassination (especially if the assassin was a Posse Comitatus type), and the economiy begins rebounding, then its pretty feasible.
 
Still less than the Reagan landslide of 1984. And, you have to figure, if Mondale becomes an inspiring figure in the wake of the Carter assassination (especially if the assassin was a Posse Comitatus type), and the economiy begins rebounding, then its pretty feasible.

I know what that term means, but how does it apply here? Hinckley was a lone gunman nut case. He would have shot anyone who was POTUS.

There are certain applications of the 22nd Amendment that could come into effect if Mondale became POTUS so early. IDK if he could run for election in 1988.:confused:

BTW, IIRC there are Forum Rules against speculations about assassinations, but I think they apply to present/future tense circumstances, not the past.
 
I know what that term means, but how does it apply here? Hinckley was a lone gunman nut case. He would have shot anyone who was POTUS.

There are certain applications of the 22nd Amendment that could come into effect if Mondale became POTUS so early. IDK if he could run for election in 1988.:confused:

BTW, IIRC there are Forum Rules against speculations about assassinations, but I think they apply to present/future tense circumstances, not the past.

Yes, i was just thinking about if the assassination was not by Hinkley, but by a Gordon Kahl type. Even with Hinkley, however, I think it would still result in Mondale scoring a major victory in '84, as the economy was beginning to recover, and Mondale could certainly have a "Morning in America" vibe going to his campaign.

And, yes, Mondale would not be able to run in '88; but he would still have a good term and a half.
 
Paul Volcker is the reason inflation decreased in the early 80s (not Reaganomics) so we will see general economic trends continue, and thus a Democratic win in '84 is likely, with Mondale the likely candidate. Bob Dole may be used as a party loyalist whipping boy.

Carter Administration may even see a balanced budget :rolleyes:

Ignoring the assassination question, I'm unsure of what Jimmy Carter had in store for his 2nd term. Stewart Udall as the first Secretary of the Enviroment? I could see some drama come about, possible scandals might include his children smoking marijuana at the White House if that got out.
 
Mondale would definitely get the Democratic nomination. I don't think Gary Hart would've ran in 1984 if Mondale was still a sitting Vice-President in 84. I doubt Ted Kennedy would've ran for many of the same reasons he didn't run in 84 in the OTL. I don't know if Jesse Jackson still would've ran, depends on how a second term for Carter/Mondale goes on the civil rights front. A part of me thinks Jesse would still have ran but dropped out earlier. I think if he ran he would've been considered for V-P until his "Hymietown" comment. I think Mondale doesn't pick Ferraro in the ATL since he's kind of running as an incumbent V-P. I see Mondale looking for a southern Democrat to be his running mate. He looks at Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton. But Mondale see's him as too young (38 years old at the time) and he's only been governor for 4 out of 6 years. Maybe a cabinet position for him Mondale would think. He narrows the list down to Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen and Florida Governor Bob Graham. Mondale ultimately chooses Bentsen hoping that he could deliver Texas in the same way LBJ did for JFK in 1960. Winning Texas would also make it very difficult for the GOP to win the election.

The 1984 race for the Republican nomination would be a race between:

Former CIA Director George H.W. Bush
Senator Bob Dole
Senator Howard Baker
Former Governor John Connally
Governor Pete du Pont
Senator John Heinz
Former NATO Commander Alexander Haig
Representative Jack Kemp
Former Governor Harold Stassen

After the loss in 1980, Bush went back to the private sector while laying the ground work for a run in 1984 as early as February of 1981. Bush made numerous trips to Iowa and New Hampshire between 1981 to 1983. Meanwhile in Washington senators Dole and Baker were battling for leadership of the party. In the 1982 mid-term elections the Republicans gained the majority in the senate. Dole challenged Baker for the role of majority leader with Baker winning. Baker tried to used his role as majority leader to be seen as the leader of the Republican party. While Dole tried to become the face of the Republican party's conservative wing. While Baker worked with the Carter administration to look appealing to moderates and show he can get things done in Washington. Dole tried to appeal to conservatives by opposing the the Carter White House as much as possible. Dole became a fixture on the Sunday morning political talk shows in the early 80s as well as going around the country making strongly conservative speeches. Baker behind closed doors on Capitol Hill would joke to senate colleagues about the amount of votes Dole was missing while he crossed the country attacking the Carter administration.

It was a three way race going into the 1984 Iowa caucuses. Dole is able to squeak out a very close victory over Bush in Iowa by getting a large amount of support from the Christian conservatives in Iowa. Baker comes in a respectable 3rd place. Both Bush and Baker think they have a better chance in New Hampshire. The attacks heat up in NH as both Bush and Baker criticize for the amount of Dole's missed votes in the senate. Both Bush and Dole attack Baker's "cozy" relationship with President Carter and other "liberals" in Washington. Both Dole and Baker criticize Bush as being a political lightweight who has won an election since 1968. New Hampshire quickly becomes sick of all the negativity. Bush ends up winning NH with Dole coming in second losing to Bush by 6% of the vote and Baker coming in a close 3rd. After two 3rd place showings, polls showing him a distant third in most of the upcoming primary states, and his campaign running out of money Baker drops out of the race on March 7, the day after the Vermont primary. The race becomes a tight two man race between Bush and Dole. Dole wins most of the primaries in the south and the prairie states. Bush wins most of the of the primaries in the Midwest and Northeastern states including a win in the New York primary despite Senator Al D'Amato's endorsement for Dole. Bush wins the Texas primary while Dole wins Florida's primary. Dole gets the endorsement of Ronald Reagan in May a few weeks before the California primary (despite Bush being his running mate in 80). While Gerald Ford privately supports Bush (despite Dole being his running mate in 76). Ford does convince Henry Kissinger to endorse Bush publicly which many in the media perceive as also being a Ford endorsement. Soon after Betty Ford in an interview with Barbara Walters announces she endorses Bush but claims not to know who her husband supports. Bush gets the endorsement of Howard Baker a few weeks later which only creates more hostility between Baker and Dole in the senate chamber. The final big primary was the California primary on June 5th. The race was tied going into California. Reagan campaigned for Dole while Bush tried to secure the support of Governor George Deukmejian and Senator Pete Wilson. Deukmejian does endorse Bush but Wilson stays neutral. But with Deukmejian's endorsement coming weeks after Reagan's and with Reagan still having the bigger name and more political connections in California than the first term Governor Deukmejian, that's enough to help Dole grab a victory in California.

Dole has the delegate lead going into the RNC in Dallas that summer but not solid enough to ensure the nomination. Reagan advises Dole not to make the mistake he made in 1976 by picking a "liberal" running mate. Bush through a hail mary and stated publicly that if he won the nomination, he'd choose Florida Senator Paula Hawkins to be his running mate. Bush hoped that putting a woman on the ticket would prove to the delegates that a Bush/Hawkins ticket would take women voters away from Mondale in the general election. The day before the start of the convention Dole wanted to sure up the conservative base of the party, so he called a press conference to announce that he's chosen Senator Jesse Helms to be his running mate. The RNC was contentious and the moderate wing of the party fears a Dole/Helms ticket will become a reality. The conservative wing stands united and they nominate Bob Dole.

The severely conservative ticket of Dole/Helms is too conservative for independent voters and Rockefeller Republicans. Howard Baker and George Bush only give lukewarm support for the ticket neither they or former President Ford actively campaign for the ticket. Dole's campaign is shaken up in late September when he names Lee Atwater his new campaign manager. The campaign takes on a very nasty tone afterwords. On election day the Mondale/Bentsen ticket wins with the support of independents and moderate and liberal Republicans (even though Dole narrowly wins Texas despite Bentsen being on the Democratic ticket).

With Bentsen winning the Vice-Presidency he resigns from his senate seat. George Bush runs for that senate seat in a special election in mid 1986 and wins. Bush mostly see this senate seat as a stepping stone to another run for president in 1988 (which Barbara is totally against until 1988). Bush and Dole's relationship in the senate is a frosty one but they remain cordial. With Bush now in the senate he remains in the national spotlight and is seen as a front runner for the 1988 GOP nomination. Bush ends up winning the nomination in 1988, chooses John Heinz to be his running mate and defeats Mondale in 1988. Bush wins re-election in 1992 defeating a Lloyd Bentsen/Joe Biden ticket. In 1996 a ticket of Bill Clinton/John Kerry defeats a John Heinz/Phil Gramm ticket.
 
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With Bush now in the senate he remains in the national spotlight and is seen as a front runner for the 1988 GOP nomination. Bush ends up winning the nomination in 1988, chooses John Heinz to be his running mate and defeats Mondale in 1988. Bush wins re-election in 1992 defeating a Lloyd Bentsen/Joe Biden ticket. In 1996 a ticket of Bill Clinton/John Kerry defeats a John Heinz/Phil Gramm ticket.

This was so close to perfect. Problem is Mondale couldn't run in '88...
 
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