I should think that without the Pacific islands (say, if the British or the Japanese got Hawaii before the US could get it), Americans would be more interested in Alaska and might well have built railways to it by WWII. And all or part of Alaska would be one or more states. Alaska has plenty of arable land. And ice free ports, on the Panhandle, at Valdez, Cordova and Seldovia on Prince William Sound and at Port Heiden and Port Moller on the Alaska Peninsula that are still part of the North American mainland. Railroads can be built to these places, and to Nome and the Bering Strait too.
Then from there, the Aleutian Islands are accesible, and those are closer to Japan than Hawaii is.
So the first question and the first branch in the TL is: Does the US actually build first railroads and then highways to Alaska across Canada?
Secondly, who actually gets Guam?
Thirdly, who gets Hawaii? Does Hawaii remain independent? Does Japan acquire Hawaii in the early 1900s? Does the UK acquire Hawaii and if so, does Hawaii become part of Canada? Could Hawaii not be American because it was ceded to Canada as a quid pro quo for a favorable settlement of Alaskan borders with Canada along with an easement and land grant for an American railroad company (either Union Pacific or Great Northern) to build a railroad across Canadian soil to Alaska --maybe because Senator Edward Teller R-CO wanted no more sugar cane territory inside the US competing with Colorado sugar beet producers? No Philippines for the US for the same reason? Philippines sold to Germany or allowed by US to be taken by Germany for that reason? If so, does Japan acquire Philippines after 1917? And if Japan does, does the US have any real conflict with Japan in 1940?
Lots of possible TLs here.
Fourthly: Who