US goes to against Germany only in 1941

POD: German U-boat mistakes ship carrying Secratary Hull to a conference in GB on Jul 12th,1941 (Part of the POD is that there is a conference on that date) for a British ship and sinks it. The US considers this an assassination of Secratary Hull and declares war on Germany. FDR puts the Pacific on the back burner for a while and eases the embargo against Japan. What happens?
 
I do not think the US would be as united as it was by Pearl Harbor. I wonder how much difference the extra resource would make in Europe

Query landing craft were used a lot in the Pacific. In this scenario they are not needed. I guess that improves the chances of earlier invasin.

However how much was learned at places like Guadal canal and does not learnign that way hurt the allies in WEstern Europe?
 
I agree. Broad sentiment in congress was not in favor of US entry into the European War, and I doubt that the death of a US cabinet official due to the sinking of an Amercan ship would unite sentiment in the same way Pearl Harbor did. Depending how the Germans played their cards (ie if they were not suitably apologetic) an act such as this might allow FDR to get congress to approve a declaration of war against Germany, but it would be a strongly divided vote. The war would be broadly unpopular with a sizeable segment of the American people, and politically, the US would probably be far less willing to join a grand alliance against Hitler including the Soviet Union. I also believe US political realities might force the Administration to wage this as a more limited war (ie a naval and air campaign against Germany, logistic cooperation with Britain, but with no immediate committment to a major US role in an invasion of Europe, and to be more open to a negotiated peace or armistice, rather than unconditional surrender, especially if things look bad for the allies.

Also, maybe I am seeing things through post-Vietnam glasses, but there might always be some suspicion that the causus belli was a set up engineered by the Adminsitration and Britain.

Also, how do you butterfly away Japanese ambitions? Once at war and on a war footing, the US might find it easier to declare war on Japan for any number of aggressions, even if this did not involve a direct attack on US soil or personnel. Once that happens, there may be no "Germany first" policy, and most US effort may go against the Japanese - who after all were seen as America's main strategic threat in areas were the US has a vested interest
 
Maybe instead of that pod, something with a higher body count and more symbolism... in 1941 when the Yorktown battlegroup was on a neutrality patrol a U-boat got inside the destroyer screen and got VERY close to the carrier before beating a retreat (it seems this might have been by accident, ie he was shadowing the group, then they did an unexpected manuever and the carrier ended up right on top of him)

POD, have the captain go rouge and hit Yorktown with a volley of torpedoes and sink her or have the ships detect him inside the screen and start panic shooting which in turns draws a volley of torpedoes from the U-boat which sinks Yorktown
 
I seriously suspect the Japanese attack anyway taking advantage of the US distraction .. IIRC the Tripartite Pact was already firmed ...

And I think the Japanese were nutty enough to think "We cannot win a completely mobilized US, lets attack before they are prepared!" ... yes stupid but OTL ...
 
Maybe instead of that pod, something with a higher body count and more symbolism... in 1941 when the Yorktown battlegroup was on a neutrality patrol a U-boat got inside the destroyer screen and got VERY close to the carrier before beating a retreat (it seems this might have been by accident, ie he was shadowing the group, then they did an unexpected manuever and the carrier ended up right on top of him)

POD, have the captain go rouge and hit Yorktown with a volley of torpedoes and sink her or have the ships detect him inside the screen and start panic shooting which in turns draws a volley of torpedoes from the U-boat which sinks Yorktown

OK, let's do it that way. I admit your POD is better.
 
Maybe instead of that pod, something with a higher body count and more symbolism... in 1941 when the Yorktown battlegroup was on a neutrality patrol a U-boat got inside the destroyer screen and got VERY close to the carrier before beating a retreat (it seems this might have been by accident, ie he was shadowing the group, then they did an unexpected manuever and the carrier ended up right on top of him)

POD, have the captain go rouge and hit Yorktown with a volley of torpedoes and sink her or have the ships detect him inside the screen and start panic shooting which in turns draws a volley of torpedoes from the U-boat which sinks Yorktown

I had an old timeline in which the USA only entered the European War (in my TL, not til 1943 when popular and congressional US sentiment was beginning to harden that war with Germany was probably inevitable and necessary). I had two main PoD's (other minor ones are implicit as well): (1) Japan is devastated my a massive earthquake and tsunami a few weeks before December 7 making them cancel the Pearl Harbor and other attacks, and (2) the final causus belli with Germany was a poorly executed plan by the Nazis to land saboteurs and assassins to murder FDR , other top officials, and attack the Norfolk navy yard. I like this naval FUBAR better, but any TL like this does need to also find a way to butterfly away the Pearl Harbor attack as well.
 
I had an old timeline in which the USA only entered the European War (in my TL, not til 1943 when popular and congressional US sentiment was beginning to harden that war with Germany was probably inevitable and necessary). I had two main PoD's (other minor ones are implicit as well): (1) Japan is devastated my a massive earthquake and tsunami a few weeks before December 7 making them cancel the Pearl Harbor and other attacks, and (2) the final causus belli with Germany was a poorly executed plan by the Nazis to land saboteurs and assassins to murder FDR , other top officials, and attack the Norfolk navy yard. I like this naval FUBAR better, but any TL like this does need to also find a way to butterfly away the Pearl Harbor attack as well.


FDR eases the embargo against Japan as he wants to fight only one war at a time. Japan isn't going to be able to be ready much earlier than OTL and between the embargo easing and the fact that American war factories are gearing up it decides not to go to war. After all the US is now selling it oil, why get into a desperate war if you don't have to?
 
I had an old timeline in which the USA only entered the European War (in my TL, not til 1943 when popular and congressional US sentiment was beginning to harden that war with Germany was probably inevitable and necessary). I had two main PoD's (other minor ones are implicit as well): (1) Japan is devastated my a massive earthquake and tsunami a few weeks before December 7 making them cancel the Pearl Harbor and other attacks, and (2) the final causus belli with Germany was a poorly executed plan by the Nazis to land saboteurs and assassins to murder FDR , other top officials, and attack the Norfolk navy yard. I like this naval FUBAR better, but any TL like this does need to also find a way to butterfly away the Pearl Harbor attack as well.

I don't know the date of the incident, its in 1941... march maybe i don't recall

Perhaps FDR via back channels can tell Japan that he is going to lift sanctions if they promise not to start shit whilst the US crushes Germany
 
I don't know the date of the incident, its in 1941... march maybe i don't recall

Perhaps FDR via back channels can tell Japan that he is going to lift sanctions if they promise not to start shit whilst the US crushes Germany


It was the last sentence of the original POD. The war with Germany will put anything about the Far East on the back pages of the newspapers. FDR simply quietly lifts the sanctions soon after the war breaks out.
 
Three other possibilities, all involving the sisters USS New York and USS Texas. All were in 1941 as well.

1. The historic stalking of USS Texas by a U-boat ends with Texas being attacked and sunk.

2. During the Bismarck's cruise, Bismarck passed through an area that had been used by New York and then Texas for gunnery exercises. Imagine shifting events around some in time where Bismarck encounters one of the old US BBs and her DD escort at night.

3. The deployment of US forces to Iceland. September 1941? The Germans decide to attack the US troop convoy bound for Iceland. USS New York and Texas are the heavy escort. This is an insane operation for Germany, but tensions were already high.

Oh I just remembered a fourth possibility, though one that involves the newer battleships of the New Mexico class. The fall of 1941, Admiral Scheer is thought to be preparing for a breakout, possibly with Tirpitz. The RN will guard the waters east of Iceland, while the USN guards the gap between Iceland and Greenland. The US and Germany are at peace, but the Atlantic Fleet had its orders to stop German raiders.
 
Query landing craft were used a lot in the Pacific. In this scenario they are not needed. I guess that improves the chances of earlier invasin.

However how much was learned at places like Guadal canal and does not learnign that way hurt the allies in WEstern Europe?

Oddly, the Atlantic and Pacific amphibious operations used very little in the way of common resources or methods. For example, LSTs were used in both theaters, but most LSTs were used in only one or the other, not both. Even by 1943 Amtraks were used to whatever extent they were available in the Pacific, but they were rejected in the Atlantic. The participation of US Marines in the Normandy invasion was flatly and thoroughly rejected by a prejudiced senior officer, vs. them being in the first wave of every major Pacific invasion.

On the plus side, since very little of the lessons learned in the PTO were applied in the ETO, the ETO won't be much worse off. :-\

I agree. Broad sentiment in congress was not in favor of US entry into the European War, and I doubt that the death of a US cabinet official due to the sinking of an Amercan ship would unite sentiment in the same way Pearl Harbor did.

Agreed. At the minimum you'd need some evidence that the Germans had intended to attack the ship, rather than accidentally.

The US was in the odd position that FDR wanted a war with Germany but the public was more supportive of a war with Japan.

Also, maybe I am seeing things through post-Vietnam glasses, but there might always be some suspicion that the causus belli was a set up engineered by the Adminsitration and Britain.

I can't see such a theory having any real following at the time, but given that today there are a large number of people who believe Pearl Harbor was a setup (despite the complete lack of evidence in support and strong evidence to the contrary) I'm quite sure such a suspicion would emerge at some point.

I seriously suspect the Japanese attack anyway taking advantage of the US distraction .. IIRC the Tripartite Pact was already firmed ...

Japan was aware at least in general terms of the Two-Ocean Navy act, and only in their fantasies were they capable of keeping up in the naval building race. Of course some of their plans during the war indicate that such fantasies were spread quite widely and quite far up the chain of command.

The plan was to knock the US back on its heels, and if possible make peace so they could mobilize the resources of their new empire. I'd think it would seem more likely that they could get a peace treaty with a nation that was involved with another war, so I'd actually expert things to proceed on broadly the same lines - Pearl Harbor attack and all. They can't go early; Shokaku and Zuikaku's groups were green by pre-war IJN standards as it was.
 
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