Under the Teller Amendment, the US disclaimed "any disposition or intention to exercise sovereignty, jurisdiction, or control over said Island [Cuba] except for the pacification thereof, and asserts its determination, when that is accomplished, to leave the government and control of the Island to its people." https://books.google.com/books?id=TFyLOUrdGFwC&pg=PA256
But note: the amendment did not define what "said Island" (Cuba) was. Was it just the island itself, or did it include offshore islands as well? And in particular, what was the status of the Isle of Pines? Was it part of Cuba--or like Vieques and Puerto Rico a legitimate conquest of the US from Spain?
The peace treaty between the US and Spain provided that
"Article I. Spain relinquishes all claim of sovereignty over and title to Cuba.
"And as the island is, upon its evacuation by Spain, to be occupied by the United States, the United States will, so long as such occupation shall last, assume and discharge the obligations that may, under international law, result from the fact of its occupation, for the protection of life and property.
"Article II. Spain cedes to the United States the island of Porto Rico and other islands now under Spanish sovereignty in the West Indies, and the island of Guam in the Marianas or Ladrones." http://www.bartleby.com/43/46.html
So was the Isle of Pines covered by Article I (Cuba, temporarily to be occupied by the US) or Article II (islands ceded to the US)? The Isle of Pines had been considered part of Cuba under Spain, but the US Army Appropriation Act of 1901 (which contained the famous "Platt Amendment") had pointedly stated "VI. That the Isle of Pines shall be omitted from the proposed constitutional boundaries of Cuba, the title thereto being left to future adjustment by treaty."
http://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=false&doc=55&page=transcript
In 1903 the US signed a treaty with Cuba confirming that, as under the Spanish, the Isle of Pines was indeed a part of Cuba. But this treaty was not ratified in the time prescribed. In 1904 there was another treaty, this time without any prescribed ratification date. The Senate, however, did nothing about it, and US real estate developers, led by S.H. Pearcy of Nashville, were starting to sell Spanish properties on the island to North Americans--a real estate boom somewhat resembling that of Florida in the 1920s. Brochures promised North Americans a tropical paradise. In 1905 the prominent US journalists Richard Harding Davis and Nicholas Biddle argued that the Isle should belong to the US, and the first US Minister to Havana, Herbert G. Squiers, "left Havana in a hurry after an indiscretion to the same effect." (Hugh Thomas, *Cuba or the Pursuit of Freedom*, p. 502) No doubt rumors that the US would get the Isle helped Pearcy in his sales of land. The only bank in Nueva Gerona (the Isle's largest town) was American. In 1907 the US Supreme Court in the case of *Pearcy v. Stranahan*, 205 US 257 http://laws.findlaw.com/us/205/257.html held that the Isle was *de facto* Cuban territory, but this did not halt the North Americanization of the Isle, much to the annoyance of Cuba. By 1919 nearly a quarter of the population were in fact US citizens. According to Thomas (pp. 502-3):
"In all save name the Isle of Pines had become a North American community. The North Americans were even annoyed that government education in English was discontinued. They had built new towns--McKinley being under construction in 1909..." The new settlers worked hard, but "already had...the Embroidery Club, the Hibiscus Club and the Pioneer Club, in Santa Fe or Nueva Gerona, to fall back on, when their citrus fruit wearied them..."
Like all booms, though, the Isle of Pines boom ended:
"Farms and citrus plantations were started, and the island prospered as exports mounted. But in 1925 the Hay-Quesada Treaty between the U. S. and Cuba recognized Cuba's right to the Island, and most of the American settlers returned to the States, leaving behind a handful of ghost towns, which had existed only a couple of decades. Once more the Isle of Pines became almost forgotten, its few thousand inhabitants virtually isolated from their fellow citizens on the mainland. By this time the California
and Florida citrus boom had made the importation of grapefruit and oranges from the Isle of Pines unprofitable. During the war, a lot of low-grade iron ore, which abounds on the island, was shipped out, but that, too, ceased, with the end of hostilities..." http://cuban-exile.com/doc_176-200/doc0183.htm (from a March 1956 Cuba Airguide tourist magazine)
So let's say the US had insisted on annexing the Isle of Pines in 1901-3. (I'll admit that this is unlikely. In OTL it is quite possible that the only reason the US did not recognize Cuba's clear right to the Isle in 1901 was to have a bargaining tool to get the Cubans to accept the Platt Amendment and the lease of Guantanamo. But let's say that for national security reasons, TR is convinced the US must have the Isle of Pines. In any event, in OTL the failure of the US Senate to ratify the Hay-Quesada treaty until 1925 would certainly seem to indicate some sentiment in favor of keeping the Isle.) The Cubans would of course be very unhappy about this, but what could do they if the US insisted on the cession of the Isle as a condition for withdrawing troops from Cuba? At the very least, let's say the US insists on, and the Cubans reluctantly agree to, a Guantanamo-style (indefinitely renewable by unilateral act of the US) lease of the Isle. What would the effects be?
(1) If in OTL there was something of a North American real-estate boom on the Isle, even with its political future uncertain--and indeed even with the US Supreme Court holding it de facto a part of Cuba--I would imagine that there would be a considerably greater boom with the Isle clearly under US jurisdiction. No doubt the boom would eventually collapse for economic reasons and because--as Frederick Lewis Allen once wrote about the Florida boom of the 1920s--"hurricanes showed what a Soothing Tropic
Wind could do when it got a running start from the West Indies." http://xroads.virginia.edu/~HYPER/ALLEN/ch11.html "On October 20, 1926 a hurricane crossed over Isle of Pines and Havana with maximum winds of 230-250 KMS /H. It left 600 deaths and classified as the most expensive of the Cuban history by the fact that losses reached to 300 millions of dollars." http://www.cubahurricanes.org/history-hurricanes-chronicles.php
Still, just as Florida was hardly depopulated after the collapse of the boom, neither would the Isle of Pines be depopulated--at least to the extent it was in OTL. Which brings me to the second point:
(2) Cuban nationalists would be angry about the Isle and demand it back, but unlike the demand for the abrogation of the Platt Amendment--which the US could agree to in the 1930s because it thought Cuba safe with Batista--this is a demand it might be politically impossible for the US to agree to, if there are thousands of Americans on the Isle and Americans have gotten used to thinking of it as American. Just remember the controversy over the Panama Canal Treaty, which had a hard time getting ratified in the 1970s and would probably have had no chance at all at an earlier time.
(3) Machado would have to look somewhere else to build his famous "model prison." (The most famous prisoner of course, two decades after the prison was built, was Fidel Castro.)
(4) Castro wouldn't be able to turn it into the "Isle of Youth."
(5) After Castro comes to power--or, if US control of the Isle somehow butterflies away the Castro revolution--after any regime comes to power that drives a lot of people into exile--the Isle will attract many Cuban refugees (this could make Florida slightly less Cuban, which in turn could have important political consequences in close US presidential elections...). And any attempt to block people from leaving Cuba will be much harder, since it is much easier to get to the Isle than to Miami.
(6) Obviously the US might decide to make military use of the Isle--the proximity to Havana makes it a likely place for launching any planned invasion.
(7) A variant of (6)--if most Americans have left the island anyway, maybe the US *does* eventually turn it over to "Cuba"--but not to Castro's regime, rather to an anti-Communist government-in-exile! In other words, the Isle of Pines becomes Cuba's "Taiwan"...
Any other thoughts?
But note: the amendment did not define what "said Island" (Cuba) was. Was it just the island itself, or did it include offshore islands as well? And in particular, what was the status of the Isle of Pines? Was it part of Cuba--or like Vieques and Puerto Rico a legitimate conquest of the US from Spain?
The peace treaty between the US and Spain provided that
"Article I. Spain relinquishes all claim of sovereignty over and title to Cuba.
"And as the island is, upon its evacuation by Spain, to be occupied by the United States, the United States will, so long as such occupation shall last, assume and discharge the obligations that may, under international law, result from the fact of its occupation, for the protection of life and property.
"Article II. Spain cedes to the United States the island of Porto Rico and other islands now under Spanish sovereignty in the West Indies, and the island of Guam in the Marianas or Ladrones." http://www.bartleby.com/43/46.html
So was the Isle of Pines covered by Article I (Cuba, temporarily to be occupied by the US) or Article II (islands ceded to the US)? The Isle of Pines had been considered part of Cuba under Spain, but the US Army Appropriation Act of 1901 (which contained the famous "Platt Amendment") had pointedly stated "VI. That the Isle of Pines shall be omitted from the proposed constitutional boundaries of Cuba, the title thereto being left to future adjustment by treaty."
http://www.ourdocuments.gov/doc.php?flash=false&doc=55&page=transcript
In 1903 the US signed a treaty with Cuba confirming that, as under the Spanish, the Isle of Pines was indeed a part of Cuba. But this treaty was not ratified in the time prescribed. In 1904 there was another treaty, this time without any prescribed ratification date. The Senate, however, did nothing about it, and US real estate developers, led by S.H. Pearcy of Nashville, were starting to sell Spanish properties on the island to North Americans--a real estate boom somewhat resembling that of Florida in the 1920s. Brochures promised North Americans a tropical paradise. In 1905 the prominent US journalists Richard Harding Davis and Nicholas Biddle argued that the Isle should belong to the US, and the first US Minister to Havana, Herbert G. Squiers, "left Havana in a hurry after an indiscretion to the same effect." (Hugh Thomas, *Cuba or the Pursuit of Freedom*, p. 502) No doubt rumors that the US would get the Isle helped Pearcy in his sales of land. The only bank in Nueva Gerona (the Isle's largest town) was American. In 1907 the US Supreme Court in the case of *Pearcy v. Stranahan*, 205 US 257 http://laws.findlaw.com/us/205/257.html held that the Isle was *de facto* Cuban territory, but this did not halt the North Americanization of the Isle, much to the annoyance of Cuba. By 1919 nearly a quarter of the population were in fact US citizens. According to Thomas (pp. 502-3):
"In all save name the Isle of Pines had become a North American community. The North Americans were even annoyed that government education in English was discontinued. They had built new towns--McKinley being under construction in 1909..." The new settlers worked hard, but "already had...the Embroidery Club, the Hibiscus Club and the Pioneer Club, in Santa Fe or Nueva Gerona, to fall back on, when their citrus fruit wearied them..."
Like all booms, though, the Isle of Pines boom ended:
"Farms and citrus plantations were started, and the island prospered as exports mounted. But in 1925 the Hay-Quesada Treaty between the U. S. and Cuba recognized Cuba's right to the Island, and most of the American settlers returned to the States, leaving behind a handful of ghost towns, which had existed only a couple of decades. Once more the Isle of Pines became almost forgotten, its few thousand inhabitants virtually isolated from their fellow citizens on the mainland. By this time the California
and Florida citrus boom had made the importation of grapefruit and oranges from the Isle of Pines unprofitable. During the war, a lot of low-grade iron ore, which abounds on the island, was shipped out, but that, too, ceased, with the end of hostilities..." http://cuban-exile.com/doc_176-200/doc0183.htm (from a March 1956 Cuba Airguide tourist magazine)
So let's say the US had insisted on annexing the Isle of Pines in 1901-3. (I'll admit that this is unlikely. In OTL it is quite possible that the only reason the US did not recognize Cuba's clear right to the Isle in 1901 was to have a bargaining tool to get the Cubans to accept the Platt Amendment and the lease of Guantanamo. But let's say that for national security reasons, TR is convinced the US must have the Isle of Pines. In any event, in OTL the failure of the US Senate to ratify the Hay-Quesada treaty until 1925 would certainly seem to indicate some sentiment in favor of keeping the Isle.) The Cubans would of course be very unhappy about this, but what could do they if the US insisted on the cession of the Isle as a condition for withdrawing troops from Cuba? At the very least, let's say the US insists on, and the Cubans reluctantly agree to, a Guantanamo-style (indefinitely renewable by unilateral act of the US) lease of the Isle. What would the effects be?
(1) If in OTL there was something of a North American real-estate boom on the Isle, even with its political future uncertain--and indeed even with the US Supreme Court holding it de facto a part of Cuba--I would imagine that there would be a considerably greater boom with the Isle clearly under US jurisdiction. No doubt the boom would eventually collapse for economic reasons and because--as Frederick Lewis Allen once wrote about the Florida boom of the 1920s--"hurricanes showed what a Soothing Tropic
Wind could do when it got a running start from the West Indies." http://xroads.virginia.edu/~HYPER/ALLEN/ch11.html "On October 20, 1926 a hurricane crossed over Isle of Pines and Havana with maximum winds of 230-250 KMS /H. It left 600 deaths and classified as the most expensive of the Cuban history by the fact that losses reached to 300 millions of dollars." http://www.cubahurricanes.org/history-hurricanes-chronicles.php
Still, just as Florida was hardly depopulated after the collapse of the boom, neither would the Isle of Pines be depopulated--at least to the extent it was in OTL. Which brings me to the second point:
(2) Cuban nationalists would be angry about the Isle and demand it back, but unlike the demand for the abrogation of the Platt Amendment--which the US could agree to in the 1930s because it thought Cuba safe with Batista--this is a demand it might be politically impossible for the US to agree to, if there are thousands of Americans on the Isle and Americans have gotten used to thinking of it as American. Just remember the controversy over the Panama Canal Treaty, which had a hard time getting ratified in the 1970s and would probably have had no chance at all at an earlier time.
(3) Machado would have to look somewhere else to build his famous "model prison." (The most famous prisoner of course, two decades after the prison was built, was Fidel Castro.)
(4) Castro wouldn't be able to turn it into the "Isle of Youth."
(5) After Castro comes to power--or, if US control of the Isle somehow butterflies away the Castro revolution--after any regime comes to power that drives a lot of people into exile--the Isle will attract many Cuban refugees (this could make Florida slightly less Cuban, which in turn could have important political consequences in close US presidential elections...). And any attempt to block people from leaving Cuba will be much harder, since it is much easier to get to the Isle than to Miami.
(6) Obviously the US might decide to make military use of the Isle--the proximity to Havana makes it a likely place for launching any planned invasion.
(7) A variant of (6)--if most Americans have left the island anyway, maybe the US *does* eventually turn it over to "Cuba"--but not to Castro's regime, rather to an anti-Communist government-in-exile! In other words, the Isle of Pines becomes Cuba's "Taiwan"...
Any other thoughts?