US fires first shots of the Pacific War

Suppose that rather than a Japanese attack, the Pacific War begins with the US firing the first shots. Perhaps Japan simply attacks the Southern Resource Area and goads the US inti shooting first. Or perhaps through another scenario. Without the outrage of Pearl Harbor, how does the US war effort look like?
 

Redcoat

Banned
Suppose that rather than a Japanese attack, the Pacific War begins with the US firing the first shots. Perhaps Japan simply attacks the Southern Resource Area and goads the US inti shooting first. Or perhaps through another scenario. Without the outrage of Pearl Harbor, how does the US war effort look like?
Interesting.....we'll probably not drop nukes on Japan, maybe some place in Korea gets the "honor"
 

SsgtC

Banned
Technically, the US did fire the first shots of the Pacific War when the USS Ward fired on, and sank, a Japanese submarine trying to force the entrance to Pearl Harbor
 
U.S.S. ENTERPRISE
At Sea
November 28, 1941

BATTLE ORDER NUMBER ONE
1. The ENTERPRISE is now operating under war conditions.
2. At any time, day or night, we must be ready for instant action.
3. Hostile submarines may be encountered.
4. The importance of every officer and man being specially alert and vigilant while on watch at his battle station
must be fully realized by all hands.
5. The failure of one man to carry out his assigned task promptly, particularly the lookouts, those manning the
batteries, and all those on watch on the deck, might result in great loss of life and even loss of the ship.
6. The Captain is confident all hands will prove equal to any emergency that may develop.
7. It is part of the tradition of our Navy that, when put to the test, all hands keep cool, keep their heads, and
FIGHT.
8. Steady nerves and stout hearts are needed now.

G. D. MURRAY,
Captain, U.S. Navy
Commanding
Approved: November 28, 1941.
W. F. HALSEY,
Vice Admiral, U.S. Navy,
Commander Aircraft, Battle Force
 
The above messages reflected the message sent from Washington DC

"This dispatch is to be considered a war warning x negotiations with Japan looking toward stabilization of conditions in the Pacific have ceased and an aggressive move by Japan is expected within the next few days x The number and equipment of Japanese troops and the organization of naval task forces indicate an amphibious expedition against either the Philippines (printed in ink, "Thai") or Kra Peninsula or possibly Borneo x Execute an appropriate defensive deployment preparatory to carrying out the tasks assigned in WPL 46 x Inform district and Army authorities x A similar warning is being sent by War Department x Spenavo inform British x Continental districts Guam Samoa directed take appropriate measures against sabotage"

One possibility is a US submarine patrolling in the path of a IJN surface group?

... Perhaps Japan simply attacks the Southern Resource Area and goads the US inti shooting first. Or perhaps through another scenario. ...

Its a common question on the Alt Hist boards. My take is the US does as it did in the Atlantic, declare a extensive "Nuetrality Zone' around its territories in the Pacific, and issue a 'Sink on Sight' order for any violators as had been issued in the Atlantic. I expect that really quickly leads to a fight.
 
Technically, the US did fire the first shots of the Pacific War when the USS Ward fired on, and sank, a Japanese submarine trying to force the entrance to Pearl Harbor

Although Japanese troops started splashing ashore at Khota Baru an hour or two before that. The Japanese also shot down a RAF PBY out of Singapore that detected their invasion fleet. This was at 1000 hours local time on 7 December which was about 1630 hours Hawaii time on 6 December.

Honestly I think something like this is really easy. All it takes is a sub skipper or fighter pilot with an itchy trigger finger who interprets his ROE rather liberally.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Although Japanese troops started splashing ashore at Khota Baru an hour or two before that. The Japanese also shot down a RAF PBY out of Singapore that detected their invasion fleet. This was at 1000 hours local time on 7 December which was about 1630 hours Hawaii time on 6 December.

Honestly I think something like this is really easy. All it takes is a sub skipper or fighter pilot with an itchy trigger finger who interprets his ROE rather liberally.
I was referring strictly to US involvement in the war.
 
I was referring strictly to US involvement in the war.

Understood but I think on the US side it is generally not realized that the crap started hitting the fan on the other side of the world before the bombs started falling on PH. The bit about the PBY getting shot down is fascinating. What if they had managed to escape and limp back to Singapore shot full of holes with a bunch of wounded crewmen on board?
 

SsgtC

Banned
Understood but I think on the US side it is generally not realized that the crap started hitting the fan on the other side of the world before the bombs started falling on PH. The bit about the PBY getting shot down is fascinating. What if they had managed to escape and limp back to Singapore shot full of holes with a bunch of wounded crewmen on board?
Lots of butterflies. Maybe Malaya doesn't fall so easily? OTOH, knowing how senior officers generally work, they could just write it off as mistaken identity and take no further precautions
 
Understood but I think on the US side it is generally not realized that the crap started hitting the fan on the other side of the world before the bombs started falling on PH. The bit about the PBY getting shot down is fascinating. What if they had managed to escape and limp back to Singapore shot full of holes with a bunch of wounded crewmen on board?

The last word the US had on this was a British summary of 7 Dec (Singapore time) sightings of Japanese warship groups and transport convoys headed south from the S China Sea into the Gulf of Siam. That message was received by Roosevelt & the Army/Navy CoS afternoon of 6th Dec in Washington DC. On reading the Brit report Roosevelt exclaimed "This means war!" After conferring with the Secretaries of Navy & War & the CoS a second set of war warning messages were drafted & dispatched to all major HQ in the Pacific region, including Panama & Philippines. This was the message that did not reach Oahu until the attack was underway there. Note: The first set of war warning messages I referred to in my previous post had been sent ten days earlier 27 November.

Another bit of Trivia. British Admiral Phillips had been in Manilia 4th - 6th December, discussing with MacArthur joint plans for war with Japan. He flew back to Singapore the afternoon of the 6th.

During November both British and Dutch signals intelligence services had provided to the USN summaries of their analysis that showed the Japanese had massed transports and warships. USN signal analysis matched the other nations conclusions. I'm unsure what MacArthurs intelligence chief made of that information.

In October the Soviet Ocean Cargo Transport Directorate acted on the belief war was coming soon to the Pacific and ordered the cessation of regular cargo service to the Pacific ports. The Pacific cargo fleet was redirected to the Atlantic. The last few transport ships with critical material from the US docked in Vladivostok late November.
 
The last word the US had on this was a British summary of 7 Dec (Singapore time) sightings of Japanese warship groups and transport convoys headed south from the S China Sea into the Gulf of Siam. That message was received by Roosevelt & the Army/Navy CoS afternoon of 6th Dec in Washington DC. On reading the Brit report Roosevelt exclaimed "This means war!" After conferring with the Secretaries of Navy & War & the CoS a second set of war warning messages were drafted & dispatched to all major HQ in the Pacific region, including Panama & Philippines. This was the message that did not reach Oahu until the attack was underway there. Note: The first set of war warning messages I referred to in my previous post had been sent ten days earlier 27 November.

Another bit of Trivia. British Admiral Phillips had been in Manilia 4th - 6th December, discussing with MacArthur joint plans for war with Japan. He flew back to Singapore the afternoon of the 6th.

During November both British and Dutch signals intelligence services had provided to the USN summaries of their analysis that showed the Japanese had massed transports and warships. USN signal analysis matched the other nations conclusions. I'm unsure what MacArthurs intelligence chief made of that information.

In October the Soviet Ocean Cargo Transport Directorate acted on the belief war was coming soon to the Pacific and ordered the cessation of regular cargo service to the Pacific ports. The Pacific cargo fleet was redirected to the Atlantic. The last few transport ships with critical material from the US docked in Vladivostok late November.

I guess the question is if a shot up PBY makes it back to Singapore and word does get flashed to Allied leadership in London and Washington and major Allied commands does that change anything? I'm not sure it does, the timeline could be too compressed but in some cases a difference of even an hour or two in terms of people's mindset could be interesting.
 
Might. But that specific information would not filter down to PH that fast. It might cause the warning sent to have a high priority. What Kimmel & Co would do with such a message arriving late evening, midnight, or 03:00 I can't say. I can see the watch officer at the empty HQ building mentally debating if he should send a messenger to awake the general...
 
Might. But that specific information would not filter down to PH that fast. It might cause the warning sent to have a high priority. What Kimmel & Co would do with such a message arriving late evening, midnight, or 03:00 I can't say. I can see the watch officer at the empty HQ building mentally debating if he should send a messenger to awake the general...

 
Top