US enters WW2 earlier.

Hitler will certainly *want* to do that, yes. He, however, may think as per OTL that the USA is far too decadent to stand the shock of a major war and expect thus a rapid, easy victory over the democracies and then going after the USSR when it's totally isolated and he's got the rest of the world on his side or at least unable to challenge him.[/QUOTE]

The scenario you describe changes so much, the war lasts longer and there would not be opportunity for Hitler to attack the Soviet Union. So there is no Soviet invasion of Eastern Europe. While I assume the US joins the United Nations that would be organized just as OTL, it would revert back to isolationism in many ways.
 
In Strategic terms the Nazi declaration of war eitheras in OTL or earlier was stupid

In legal terms they hada strong case

And Hitler was in charge of Germany and did weird things in trying to promote his evil objectives
 
So if Nazi Germany does not attack in 1941, nor in 1942, what does it do in the meantime? I think it's fairly implausible to believe that Hitler would refrain from attacking the Soviet Union. If we assume Japan attacks the United States in May of 1941 then Barbarossa is almost certainly going to happen; German forces were already moving into or were in position, and all plans were out of the way. There is really nothing that could cause the operation to be postponed by this point.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
So if Nazi Germany does not attack in 1941, nor in 1942, what does it do in the meantime? I think it's fairly implausible to believe that Hitler would refrain from attacking the Soviet Union. If we assume Japan attacks the United States in May of 1941 then Barbarossa is almost certainly going to happen; German forces were already moving into or were in position, and all plans were out of the way. There is really nothing that could cause the operation to be postponed by this point.

Agreed, most likely he goes to war with Russia on schedule. Hitler could also take fairly random actions. There is a very small chance something butterflies and Hitler loses his nerve to attack.
 
Now Hitler has time to abort the invasion of the Soviets after the Japanese attack.
I can see the German then skipping on the Soviet Union invasion then.
You're both dreaming IMO. Hitler's #1 enemy, his #1 objective, was Communism. He would never have let the Sovs alone.:rolleyes::rolleyes:

As for the embargo, how do you explain it being moved up a year without the concurrent actions by Japan that led to it being imposed in the first place?:confused::confused::confused::confused:

Finally, if the U.S. is going to "enter the war" sooner, it's much more probable it's due to action in the Atlantic, meaning war with Japan is even less likely. (This does suggest Hitler is an even bigger idiot than OTL.:eek::rolleyes: {Is that even possible?:p}) Moreover, if the U.S. is in the war with Germany, tough measures (or ill-considered measures) against Japan are much less probable, too, so a badly thought out total embargo is extremely improbable. (It wasn't what FDR intended anyhow.:rolleyes:)

Without a German victory in Europe, there would be no new world order, and no posibility of a victory of any kind for Japan.
For the Japanese Army, the occupation of Indochina put an end to the window to attack the Soviets.
Right. If the Germans aren't successful against France, Japan isn't going to occupy IndoChina. If the U.S. is actively in the war, Japan will not attack British colonies in Asia. (IJN was certain war with Britain meant war with the U.S. even without the U.S. actually in the war...:rolleyes:) If the U.S. enters the war at the right moment, even the occupation of part of French IndoChina won't happen; Japan' can't afford the risk to her SLOCs, without the ability to knock out the Pacific Fleet. And if the U.S. is at war, her chances of succeeding at it go way, way down.:eek:
1. ...the navy would be flying the Hellcat and the AirForce the P38 and the P47.
P-38s, yes. P-47s, maybe. F6Fs, no: F6F was designed in response to the Zero. F4Us, yes...which is worse for Japan.:eek::eek: And P-38s in the P.I.?:eek::eek::eek:

That, however, depends on a later U.S. entry...

IMO, early U.S. entry makes a Japanese attack in Siberia more likely, given the long-standing grudge. OTOH, IJA had their asses handed to them in '38 & '39, & had no way to cope with T-34s. Zhukov (or his replacement:rolleyes:) being in Pusan in a matter of weeks (days may be optimistic:rolleyes:) after Japan attacks seems very possible.

Hitler will certainly *want* to do that, yes. He, however, may think as per OTL that the USA is far too decadent to stand the shock of a major war and expect thus a rapid, easy victory over the democracies and then going after the USSR when it's totally isolated and he's got the rest of the world on his side or at least unable to challenge him.
I find that very likely. Hitler's view of the U.S. was totally wrong.:rolleyes: I daresay he was almost as contemptuous as he was of the Sovs. An easy win would be about what he'd expect; having his ass handed to him, not so much.:rolleyes::rolleyes: And any delay in attacking the Sovs only makes for a bigger disaster when it does come off. It was bad enough with the few 100 T-34s & KVs the Heer did meet; picture it with 1000s.:eek::eek::eek:

One thing crosses my mind: if the U.S. is coming under attack from U-boats in '40, before BdU solves the exploder problem, can it prod BuOrd to looking more closely at the Mk 6/Mk 14? Or move more rapidly to fix it? (OK, maybe that's ASB.:rolleyes:) It also means, if there is war with Japan, the Pac Fleet Sub Force has the maru code from the outset, which dramatically:eek::eek: increases sinkings over OTL (even if the Mk6/Mk14 problems remain).
 
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F6F was still on order pre Pearl Harbor, not exactly sure when. It was just partialy redesigned to deal with the Zero. Absent the Pacific War there will still be a broad F6F equivalent called the F6F
 
I find that very likely. Hitler's view of the U.S. was totally wrong.:rolleyes: I daresay he was almost as contemptuous as he was of the Sovs. An easy win would be about what he'd expect; having his ass handed to him, not so much.:rolleyes::rolleyes: And any delay in attacking the Sovs only makes for a bigger disaster when it does come off. It was bad enough with the few 100 T-34s & KVs the Heer did meet; picture it with 1000s.:eek::eek::eek:

One thing crosses my mind: if the U.S. is coming under attack from U-boats in '40, before BdU solves the exploder problem, can it prod BuOrd to looking more closely at the Mk 6/Mk 14? Or move more rapidly to fix it? (OK, maybe that's ASB.:rolleyes:) It also means, if there is war with Japan, the Pac Fleet Sub Force has the maru code from the outset, which dramatically:eek::eek: increases sinkings over OTL (even if the Mk6/Mk14 problems remain).

The interesting thing is that Hitler's mistake here is on the surface at least somewhat justifiable. The USA began the war with an army 100,000 strong and while building up a strong navy the the US Armed Forces at their peak IOTL would not necessarily have been predicted from the USA of 1940. Of course in the long term the USSR benefits anyway as it may well go to war against Germany in 1942/3 ITTL anyway, as Hitler would find war against both democracies to be well outside his paygrade.
 
In Strategic terms the Nazi declaration of war eitheras in OTL or earlier was stupid

In legal terms they hada strong case

And Hitler was in charge of Germany and did weird things in trying to promote his evil objectives

With the advantage of hindsight, yes. At the time with the USA occupying Iceland and guaranteeing the Royal Navy's ability to continue the war, to someone with the reckless gambling and Blood for the Blood God mentality of Adolf Hitler the temptation would be a strong one. Add in that the US Army would be starting as per OTL about 100,000 and the USA's just starting its own build-up to the mix....it's almost perfect Hitler Schmuck BaitTM.
 
If Japan attacks USA in Dec 1940, and Hitler obligingly invites the USA to wage war against Germany, then Barbarrossa goes ahead.

Now it is even more crucial, originally knock out Russia to deprive Britain of her last possible major continental ally - more likely Hitler just wanted to attack Russia because he was a Nazi, now also Russia needs to be taken out quicky before the USA is geared up properly. This means people like Goering and a host of others who thought an anti British Meditteranean strategy would be better, may well know agree with Hitler.

Barbarossa may be launched earlier due to a greater sense of urgency.
If it is the British intervention in Greece and the Yugoslav revolt is more problematic for the Germans.

Britain is still likely to send troops to Greece, but Hitler may not use Pz forces in Yugoslavia, due to the urgency of knocking out Russia. If so then Rundstedt's Southern Army Group may never be delayed at Kiev, the knock on of that being, 1st Pz Gp does not end up heading south into the Ukraine, - forming the basis for the Kiev encirclement, but follows the original plan.

One possibility is that in sept 1941, Guderians argument for Moscow not Kiev
occurs in a different atmosphere. Hitler may give way to Guderian.

Maybe Mussolini gets asassinated :D and Italy approaches the US for peace terms while Hitlers forces are just driving into Russia.
 
If Japan attacks USA in Dec 1940, and Hitler obligingly invites the USA to wage war against Germany, then Barbarrossa goes ahead.

No, Barbarossa will have to be postponed.

Now it is even more crucial, originally knock out Russia to deprive Britain of her last possible major continental ally - more likely Hitler just wanted to attack Russia because he was a Nazi, now also Russia needs to be taken out quicky before the USA is geared up properly. This means people like Goering and a host of others who thought an anti British Meditteranean strategy would be better, may well know agree with Hitler.

Given this is both Hitler and Nazism we're speaking of, they may well decide that the war against the West will be a simple, easy matter of once and for all crushing decadent democracy and then the final, apocalyptic and twisted ideological war.

Barbarossa may be launched earlier due to a greater sense of urgency.
If it is the British intervention in Greece and the Yugoslav revolt is more problematic for the Germans.

It can't be launched too early as the Germans will need to build up the 3 million-strong invasion force of OTL and the USSR, if it's clear Hitler really does invade will be going great guns to maximize as many modern weapons as possible.

Britain is still likely to send troops to Greece, but Hitler may not use Pz forces in Yugoslavia, due to the urgency of knocking out Russia. If so then Rundstedt's Southern Army Group may never be delayed at Kiev, the knock on of that being, 1st Pz Gp does not end up heading south into the Ukraine, - forming the basis for the Kiev encirclement, but follows the original plan.

Hitler's alliance with Yugoslavia was as an invasion route to Greece, so......

One possibility is that in sept 1941, Guderians argument for Moscow not Kiev
occurs in a different atmosphere. Hitler may give way to Guderian.

.....

And then the Soviet troops in the South smash the German flank in with 660,000 troops who were all captured IOTL being put to good use by Stalin to save his capital. :rolleyes:

Maybe Mussolini gets asassinated :D and Italy approaches the US for peace terms while Hitlers forces are just driving into Russia.

Hitler's forces won't be just driving into Russia, and as IOTL if this is remotely likely the Germans will just occupy Italy and make the Allies pay 1,000 lives per every rock in Italy they have to go through. Hitler's dictatorship is simply incapable of destroying Stalin's. If Hitler's facing a war with the USA in early 1940, then he decides to attack the USSR in 1941 for shits and giggles the Soviets will be aware, even Stalin, that the Nazis can only be intending to attack the USSR, and if Stalin authorizes his troops to shoot back rather earlier and it's not up to individual Soviet generals like Kirponos to take their chances with the NVKD and do that anyway, then the Germans are buggered earlier than IOTL and the end result will still be the same.

When the Germans faced the bulk of Soviet forces in the south it took them months and Soviet mistakes to capture Kiev, and in contrast to the North the Germans made rather slow progress against rather more Soviets. If the entire Red Army is aware that they're coming and allowed to do something about it, Barbarossa will not resemble OTL.
 
No, Barbarossa will have to be postponed.
Given this is both Hitler and Nazism we're speaking of, they may well decide that the war against the West will be a simple, easy matter of once and for all crushing decadent democracy and then the final, apocalyptic and twisted ideological war.
It can't be launched too early as the Germans will need to build up the 3 million-strong invasion force of OTL and the USSR, if it's clear Hitler really does invade will be going great guns to maximize as many modern weapons as possible.

The Russian war was his pet baby, he will go ahead regardlesss, it will be a greater urgency to knock USSR out before USA can mobilize properly. All those that thought it a bad idea are more likely to be swayed.




.....

And then the Soviet troops in the South smash the German flank in with 660,000 troops who were all captured IOTL being put to good use by Stalin to save his capital.


I agree, if 1st Pz Gp follows its planned line of advance that leaves a problem for the Nazis south of Kiev. The attack on Moscow may be delayed even longer, as no Pz pincer of Kiev would be possible, unless PzGP1
repositions itself.



"Hitler's forces won't be just driving into Russia," i didnt mean literally.

When the Germans faced the bulk of Soviet forces in the south it took them months and Soviet mistakes to capture Kiev, and in contrast to the North the Germans made rather slow progress against rather more Soviets. If the entire Red Army is aware that they're coming and allowed to do something about it, Barbarossa will not resemble OTL.
They did know, unfortunatley Stalin wouldnt believe it, Canaris leaked the plans - he leaked everying.
Letys hear it for Canaris.

Well lets say the Germans are forced to launch Barbarrossa earlier, maybe they take Moscow, but the Reds retake it in a winter counter offensive, possibly a bigger disaster for Nazis than in OTL as Hitler may well concenrate AGC more densley in the Moscow envoiremens, leaving AGC in a neater bag.
Maybe the scene of Stalingrad is enacted earlier, only at Moscow, with say 9th or 4th army and 3rd or 2nd PzGp in the bag.

1942, the Nazis are unable to launch any major offensive in the East, the Americans may have already occupied Vichy North Africa, and the Italians may have already been kicked out of Libya.

So 1942 possible Italian capitulation.
 
South Center dilema

Since this morphed into a discussion on Barbarossa, I'll say it again. To win in Russia the germans had to go South (to destroy the Soviet forces there) and Center (to take Moscow and secure a defensive winter line) at the same time. They lacked ressources for that (being short of at least one PzG) and had no winning choice. Nothing short of a political colapse of the soviet sistem would get Nazi Germany closer to victory than what they got. The Germans did all that could be done in Russia in 41, for the ressources they had.
An US entry into the war earlier could have changed barbarossa only if it had pressured the German leadership to get real about industrial mobilization in 1940, massively increasing tank production while at the same time improving the level of integration of the other participants in "crusade againts bolchevism" to near NATO standarts of compatiblity/quality. With 50% more PzKfw III and IV avaiable, and having spent one year bringing the Italian, Romanian, Hungarian forces closer to german standards Barbarossa might be winable in 41...
So Speer gets full control of industry from July 1940, Guderian heads the multinational trainning center from the same date and the rest of the space bats join in a nice diamond formation for the fly past...
 
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