Now Hitler has time to abort the invasion of the Soviets after the Japanese attack.
I can see the German then skipping on the Soviet Union invasion then.
You're both dreaming IMO. Hitler's #1 enemy, his #1 objective, was Communism. He would
never have let the Sovs alone.

As for the embargo, how do you explain it being moved up a year without the concurrent actions by Japan
that led to it being imposed in the first place?



Finally, if the U.S. is going to "enter the war" sooner, it's much more probable it's due to action
in the Atlantic, meaning war with Japan is even
less likely. (This does suggest Hitler is an even bigger idiot than OTL.


{Is that even possible?

}) Moreover, if the U.S. is in the war with Germany, tough measures (or ill-considered measures) against Japan are much less probable, too, so a badly thought out total embargo is extremely improbable. (It wasn't what FDR intended anyhow.

)
Without a German victory in Europe, there would be no new world order, and no posibility of a victory of any kind for Japan.
For the Japanese Army, the occupation of Indochina put an end to the window to attack the Soviets.
Right. If the Germans aren't successful against France, Japan isn't going to occupy IndoChina. If the U.S. is actively in the war, Japan
will not attack British colonies in Asia. (IJN was certain war with Britain meant war with the U.S. even
without the U.S. actually in the war...

) If the U.S. enters the war at the right moment, even the occupation of part of French IndoChina won't happen; Japan' can't afford the risk to her SLOCs, without the ability to knock out the Pacific Fleet. And if the U.S. is at war, her chances of succeeding at it go way,
way down.
1. ...the navy would be flying the Hellcat and the AirForce the P38 and the P47.
P-38s, yes. P-47s, maybe. F6Fs, no: F6F was designed in response to the Zero. F4Us, yes...which is worse for Japan.


And P-38s in the P.I.?


That, however, depends on a
later U.S. entry...
IMO, early U.S. entry makes a Japanese attack in Siberia more likely, given the long-standing grudge. OTOH, IJA had their asses handed to them in '38 & '39, & had
no way to cope with T-34s. Zhukov (or his replacement

) being in Pusan in a matter of weeks (days may be optimistic

) after Japan attacks seems very possible.
Hitler will certainly *want* to do that, yes. He, however, may think as per OTL that the USA is far too decadent to stand the shock of a major war and expect thus a rapid, easy victory over the democracies and then going after the USSR when it's totally isolated and he's got the rest of the world on his side or at least unable to challenge him.
I find that very likely. Hitler's view of the U.S. was totally wrong.

I daresay he was almost as contemptuous as he was of the Sovs. An easy win would be about what he'd expect; having his ass handed to him, not so much.


And any delay in attacking the Sovs only makes for a bigger disaster when it does come off. It was bad enough with the few 100 T-34s & KVs the
Heer did meet; picture it with 1000s.


One thing crosses my mind: if the U.S. is coming under attack from U-boats in '40, before
BdU solves the exploder problem, can it prod BuOrd to looking more closely at the Mk 6/Mk 14? Or move more rapidly to fix it? (OK, maybe that's ASB.

) It also means, if there
is war with Japan, the Pac Fleet Sub Force has the
maru code from the outset, which dramatically


increases sinkings over OTL (even if the Mk6/Mk14 problems remain).